Bitcoin falls amid US government shutdown crisis

BTC, recorded a liquidation of 1.448 trillion won in the 20-day futures market
The US Congress failed to pass the federal government's budget for next year
Increased instability in the asset market... BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend
Experts say "BTC will rebound following the historical Santa Claus rally pattern"

BTC fell on the 20th due to the chain liquidation in the futures market and the unstable US political situation.

According to data from the on-chain analysis platform CoinGlass, after BTC plunged below $96,000, the liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency futures market recorded $1.448 trillion (about 14.48 trillion won) on the 20th.

The liquidation of long bets and short (bearish) bets recorded $878 million (about 12.713 trillion won) and $160 million (about 2.317 trillion won), respectively, on the 20th. After the cryptocurrency market, including BTC, plummeted following the press conference by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the 19th, futures investors lined up to bet on the upside, and this bet led to massive liquidation.

The escalating risk of a temporary shutdown of the US federal government has prevented the rebound of the cryptocurrency market, including BTC.

The US Congress, which was supposed to handle the budget for next year in September, only passed a three-month interim budget until the 20th of this month, and is pushing for the passage of a new budget between the ruling and opposition parties. However, as the president-elect Trump announced that he does not agree with the new budget, the US Congress is facing difficulties in passing the budget.

If the US Congress fails to pass the new budget for next year by today, the 20th, the US federal government may face a shutdown starting tomorrow, the 21st.

BTC fell about 4.6% compared to the previous day. The decline of altcoins was even more pronounced. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded declines of about 9%, 8%, and 12%, respectively, as of 2:30 pm on the 20th.

◇BTC = As of 4 pm on the 20th on Upbit, the price of BTC is 14.7 million won. BTC's market share (dominance) was 58.85%.

According to the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, the long (bullish) and short (bearish) betting ratio in the BTC futures market was 61.67% and 38.33%, respectively.

Based on the past pattern that BTC has always risen during the Christmas season when it faced a halving and was in a bullish trend, it has been analyzed that BTC will rebound soon.

Beinincrypto reported that "despite the recent slight adjustment, there is a lot of expectation that BTC will record a high price during the Christmas week" and "many experts predict the Santa Claus rally in 2024, following the precedent of BTC skyrocketing in the halving year."

In fact, BTC recorded an increase of 12.68%, 11.25%, and 25.63% during the Christmas season in 2012, 2016, and 2020, respectively, which were the years of the halving and the bullish market.

2024 is recorded as the year of the halving and the year of BTC's record-breaking bullish trend. BTC's price has risen about 137% from the beginning of this year to the present.

On the 20th, Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Oscillator value was 0.70, indicating that BTC's price is well below the long-term average price and is recording a bottom. Based on this data, on-chain analysis experts forecast that BTC will rebound during the Christmas week and continue to set new highs.

◇Rising Coins = As of 4 pm on the 20th on Upbit, the cryptocurrency that recorded the largest increase compared to the previous trading day was Mokaverse (MOCA), which rose about 17.37%.

Mokaverse is the first in-house blockchain project of the global blockchain investment firm Animoca Brands. It supports deposits and withdrawals through the Ethereum network.

Upbit introduced Mokaverse as "a project that aims to secure cultural interoperability in the Web3 ecosystem through token and point systems."

The project plans to provide various functions such as education, games, and development to Mokaverse Non-Fungible Token (NFT) holders, and secure utility by linking with various projects in the ecosystem.

◇Fear and Greed Index = The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index provided by Alternative is 74 points, entering the 'Greed' stage. The Greed stage is a period when price volatility and trading volume are high, and prices are rising. There is a high possibility of forming a short-term peak, so caution is required when selling.

The Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Index (RSI) provided by Glassnode is 35.2, recording a 'neutral' state. RSI is an indicator that represents the relative strength between the upward and downward pressure of a specific asset price, and indicates the degree of overbought and oversold of a specific asset.

Reporter Kwon Seung-won ksw@blockstreet.co.kr