Odaily星球日报讯 美国 PCE 和核心 PCE 数据全线低于预期，交易员继续押注美联储将在 1 月份暂停降息，并增加美联储将在 3 月份降息的押注，预计 10 月份还会有一次降息。（金十）

交易员继续押注美联储明年1月暂停降息，增加3月降息押注

Odaily Odaily reported that the US PCE and core PCE data were all lower than expected. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would suspend interest rate cuts in January and increased their bets that the Fed would cut interest rates in March. Another rate cut is expected in October. (Jinshi)

Traders continue to bet that the Fed will pause rate cuts in January next year and increase bets on a rate cut in March

Odaily reports that Deutsche Bank has released a report on this week's FOMC meeting. The report states that the Fed meeting reinforced our basic view that the skip (rate cut) in the January meeting may turn into an extended pause (rate cut) in 2025. We continue to believe that the nominal neutral rate is around 3.75%, and the committee needs to maintain a restrictive level relative to that. Therefore, we reiterate our view that the federal funds rate may remain above 4% next year, with the baseline being no further rate cuts. The report also notes that some FOMC participants have already started incorporating the potential economic impact of President-elect Trump's policies into their forecasts, which may lead to higher inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In the labor market, Powell described it as solid, but noted that the current pace of job creation is below the level needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate.

Deutsche Bank: Fed will not cut interest rates next year

Odaily Odaily reports that US interest rate futures are pricing in the Federal Reserve cutting rates by about 49 basis points in 2025, close to the 50 basis points projected in the Fed's dot plot, with the market pricing in a 75 basis point cut ahead of the rate decision announcement. (<金十>)

Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut next year have dropped by 25 BP

Odaily reported that after the Federal Reserve hinted at more cautious room for future rate cuts, speculative investments generally retreated, and Bitcoin recorded its largest decline in more than three months, falling to the critical level of around $100,000. In a report, IG Australia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote that the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting should not have surprised investors who are "focused on the continued rise in US inflation and activity data", "however, it has become a catalyst to wash away some of the speculative excess that flowed into risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin after the US election." Since November 5, the day of the US election, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 50%, and earlier this week it hit a record high of $108,316. Pantera Capital partner Paul Veradittakit said, "All signs point to a good bottom and outlook for Bitcoin", even though some traders were disappointed with the Federal Reserve meeting and took profits.