Odaily星球日报讯 巴克莱银行表示，美国利率可能保持高位的因素之一是美国（通胀）政策。在 12 月的会议上，一些 FOMC 参与者显然开始在他们的通胀预测中反映对关税的预期。此外，即使在那些没有调整官方预测的人当中，许多人现在也认为，通胀风险的平衡倾向于上行。 尽管鲍威尔没有明确回答美联储在多大程度上倾向于通过关税相关的价格水平上涨来看待，但我们认为，在关税预计将导致通胀在 2025 年下半年加剧的情况下，特别是在近年来通胀率上升的背景下，美联储继续降息将是一个挑战。我们预计美联储将在明年 6 月后暂停降息，并在关税导致的通胀压力消散后，在 2026 年年中左右恢复降息。在我们的基准中，我们预计 2026 年将有两次 25 个基点的降息，终端利率为 3.25-3.50%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 巴克莱银行表示，美国利率可能保持高位的因素之一是美国（通胀）政策。在 12 月的会议上，一些 FOMC 参与者显然开始在他们的通胀预测中反映对关税的预期。此外，即使在那些没有调整官方预测的人当中，许多人现在也认为，通胀风险的平衡倾向于上行。尽管鲍威尔没有明确回答美联储在多大程度上倾向于通过关税相关的价格水平上涨来看待，但我们认为，在关税预计将导致通胀在 2025 年下半年加剧的情况下，特别是在近年来通胀率上升的背景下，美联储继续降息将是一个挑战。我们预计美联储将在明年 6 月后暂停降息，并在关税导致的通胀压力消散后，在 2026 年年中左右恢复降息。在我们的基准中，我们预计 2026 年将有两次 25 个基点的降息，终端利率为 3.25-3.50%。（金十）

巴克莱：预计美联储将于明年6月后暂停降息，直至2026年年中

Odaily reports that Barclays Bank said one of the factors that may keep US interest rates high is US (inflation) policy. At the December meeting, some FOMC participants apparently began to reflect their expectations of tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Furthermore, even among those who did not adjust their official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risks is tilted to the upside. Although Powell did not explicitly answer to what extent the Fed is inclined to view the price level rise due to tariffs, we believe that, given that tariffs are expected to exacerbate inflation in the second half of 2025, particularly against the backdrop of rising inflation rates in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Fed to continue cutting rates. We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts after June next year and resume rate cuts around mid-2026 after the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs dissipates. In our baseline, we expect two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%. (Gold Ten)

Odaily reports that Barclays Bank said one of the factors that may keep US interest rates high is US (inflation) policy. At the December meeting, some FOMC participants apparently began to reflect expectations of tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Furthermore, even among those who did not adjust their official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risks is tilted to the upside. Although Powell did not explicitly answer to what extent the Fed is inclined to view the price level rise due to tariffs, we believe that, given that tariffs are expected to exacerbate inflation in the second half of 2025, particularly against the backdrop of rising inflation rates in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Fed to continue cutting rates. We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts after June next year and resume rate cuts around mid-2026 after the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs dissipates. In our baseline, we expect two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%. (Gold Ten)

Barclays: The Fed is expected to stop cutting interest rates after June next year until mid-2026

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%.

Here is the English translation:

The Mars Finance news, this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the "pivot" long expected by the market, the central bank's statement this week and the update of its economic forecast had a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and US Treasury yields should rise in response. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its all-time high, and on Friday, European session Bitcoin continued to fall and briefly approached $95,000, earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000, this round of decline in the <crypto> has had a greater impact on <Altcoins> such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, the US exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly invests in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day inflow of funds this week, setting a record $680 million outflow, highlighting the change in market sentiment. Due to the approaching Christmas, the market next week will be relatively calm, but there are still some relatively large data, but due to the thin liquidity, the market volatility may become very large. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 23:00, US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21.
For the US dollar, with the overall hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, the dollar is not expected to easily lose its throne gained this year, although the low trading volume during the holiday period may cause some unnecessary volatility. In general, if there is any market turmoil during the holiday period, it is more likely to hit US stocks and US Treasuries. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not welcomed by Wall Street, and as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the selloff may intensify.

Next week's macro outlook: Christmas season may be fraught with dangers, beware of liquidity shortages that amplify market volatility

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