The market, project, and cryptocurrency information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
As a psychological barrier, the resistance effect of $100,000 depends on the strength of the will of the holders. This week's trend shows that after the overall trend of capital and sentiment is formed, the breakthrough of the psychological barrier is just a matter of time.
After four consecutive weeks of upward movement, BTC fluctuated this week, opening at $101,400 and then dropping to close at $104,447.76. After clearing the urgent profit-taking pressure and retesting the 5-week moving average, it gradually moved upward and finally broke through $104,000 on Sunday.
This week, the US released CPI and PPI data, which were in line with expectations and slightly negative, but the crypto market, which has been well-adjusted, seems to have entered a "zero-risk" gradual upward stage with the support of continuous capital inflows.
Macro Finance and Economic Data
This week, the US announced that the seasonally adjusted CPI for the end of November rose 2.7% year-on-year, the second consecutive month of increase, and 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since April.
After the CPI data was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting rates by the end of 2025. They expect a cumulative 87 basis point rate cut by then. This means that in addition to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week, there will be two more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.
US stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.34%, the Dow Jones down 1.82%, and the S&P 500 down 0.64%. London gold rose slightly by 0.16%.
This week, the ECB raised interest rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the deposit rate from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that further rate cuts will continue.
In China, the Central Economic Work Conference called for "implementing a more proactive and effective macro policy to stabilize the real estate and stock markets", and the subsequent Central Financial Work Conference called for "implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and increasing the fiscal deficit rate. Implement a moderately loose monetary policy and cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner." This is the first time in 14 years that the Chinese government has mentioned a "moderately loose" monetary policy.
In summary, in 2025, the US will face policy volatility and may face a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in rate cuts; Europe and China's economic growth may continue to slow, so they must adopt a loose monetary policy to stimulate the weak economic growth.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Although the Christmas holiday is approaching and the market is becoming less active, the crypto market is still maintaining relatively ample capital inflows. This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows were $2.174 billion, and stablecoin channel inflows were $3.768 billion, totaling $5.941 billion, down slightly from last week but still at a high level.
Selling
This week, long and short positions transferred a total of 268,581 BTC to exchanges, of which 256,826 BTC were from short positions and 11,755 BTC were from long positions, the second largest selling week since November.
The surging buying power, especially the capital absorption of the BTC Spot ETF channel, has absorbed the selling pressure. The balance of centralized exchanges decreased by 27,901 BTC over the week.
According to eMerge Engine of EMC Labs, the floating profit of short positions has dropped from the previous high of 33% to the bull market neutral level of 25%.
Especially, the selling of long positions, which is crucial to the cyclical stage, has been declining continuously, and the BTC price is expected to rise gradually above $100,000 in the midst of volatility.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and is in a vigorous upward state.
END
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