Author: Rainy Sleep

First, I'll talk about three points that I'm more Bullish on:

1. Pudgy Penguins survived after experiencing a team change and being FUD'd, and they're doing well. The key is the team's strong self-healing ability - they make money by selling toys and other operations using the Penguin IP, ensuring the long-term operation of the project, such as launching the metaverse and issuing tokens.

You should know that after Blur occupied the user's mind, the reason why many NFT projects declined is "losing royalty income". This also sparked a lot of controversy at the time. Having money can get things done, and without money, it's hard to do anything. Isn't the Ethereum Foundation also selling $ETH to get things done (manual dog head), the damn Ethereum Foundation.

The team is the core of a project's continuous development and expansion. The new Penguin team has proven themselves - self-healing + creating new expectations for the market (drawing a bigger pie).

2. $PENGU Valuation

Now we can completely treat $PENGU as a memecoin - the meme of an NFT IP, that's about the feeling. I see a lot of people are also treating $PENGU as a meme, and the projects used for comparison are also $DOGE $MEME $SHIB and so on. But considering its upcoming Abstract L2, perhaps we should treat it as a Layer2 Ticker.

Abstract is built on the ZK Stack framework based on ZKSync, and the mainnet launch is expected to be in January 2025. The feature of Abstract is Native Account Abstraction. In simple terms, users can create and use wallets with social information such as email. The Penguin team hopes to build Abstract into a consumer application chain (those who have read my previous tweets should know that I am very optimistic about this concept).

Another point is that Abstract will distribute the revenue of the on-chain sequencer to the token holders who actively participate in governance, and the tokens that participate in governance and dividends are most likely $PENGU. Participating token holders will have the right to direct the future token issuance to a certain ecosystem project.

Some projects have already confirmed that they will deploy on the Abstract mainnet after it goes live.

It's worth mentioning that the Penguin team will use LayerZero to achieve the circulation of $PENGU between the Abstract and Solana ecosystems.

However, considering the early cold start and subsequent development, Abstract should also have its own token in the future. $PENGU is very likely to become the medium for users to obtain the Abstract token, such as staking to accumulate points, just like Blur - Blast. In the early stage, Abstract will be governed through $PENGU, and in the later stage, the Abstract token and $PENGU holders will govern together. (Regarding the Abstract token, I haven't found a very accurate statement, if you know where it's written, or if I've misunderstood it here, feel free to share and correct me)

Btw, the background of the capital is also very good.

3. Most of the airdrop recipients have already sold their positions. The general process is like this: wash trading, accumulating, and then dumping.

Now let me talk about two more Bearish points⬇️

Now: The overall market sentiment is not good, and as we enter the Christmas - New Year season, the overall market is very weak, and now is not a good time to buy coins. However, this kind of time usually gives us a bottom.

Future: When the Abstract mainnet goes live, Pudgy Toys players will receive $PENGU airdrops, which will bring some new selling pressure. I don't think the impact will be very large.

If you like to buy $PENGU, it's best to wait for the market to stabilize + $PENGU to stabilize. The expectation is the potential linkage between Abstract and $PENGU. If there is no linkage, for short-term holders, selling is a better choice; for long-term holders, they can only hope for the future performance of Abstract.

DYOR