Who is waiting beyond the hills.
Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
In 2024, the Altcoin market reached a new peak with an unstoppable wave, with Bitcoin, the market's bellwether, making a strong comeback into the mainstream vision, officially breaking through the $100,000 mark, demonstrating its unique and tremendous vitality. This year, the Altcoin market saw Bitcoin's fourth halving, with mining hash rate and market share both hitting new highs, the launch of spot ETFs accelerating capital inflows, the on-chain ecosystem continuously evolving amid the rise of DeFi, MEME coins, and new public chains, Solana making a strong comeback, and the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market entering a de-bubbling stage. From the macro landscape to micro-level data, the entire Altcoin market has exhibited new momentum and differentiation characteristics.
Standing at this critical juncture of the cycle, on-chain data outlines the Altcoin market's panorama of accelerated capital inflows, diversified ecosystem expansion, and emerging structural opportunities.
This annual review will take you through 10 key points in the on-chain world of 2024, from macro trends to core indicators in niche tracks, analyzing how the Altcoin market has traversed the hills and reached new heights, providing data support and insights for future development.
Bitcoin
I. Bitcoin Completes Fourth Halving, Mining Difficulty and Hash Rate Reach New Highs
On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin successfully underwent its fourth halving at block height 840,000, with the mining reward reduced from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC. Bitcoin's inflation rate dropped to 0.85%, lower than the previous cycle's 1.7%. This change in the supply model is a milestone in Bitcoin's growth, as its scarcity has now surpassed the stable issuance rate of gold (around 2.3%).
Meanwhile, the mining difficulty and the network's average hash rate for Bitcoin miners have been steadily rising. As of December 2nd, the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.59% at block height 872,928, reaching a new high of 103.92T, and the network's average hash rate soared to 726.57 EH/s.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
From Bitcoin's first halving to the current fourth halving, each cycle has witnessed a dual surge in price and hash rate, reflecting the gradual maturation of the ecosystem. After the first halving, Bitcoin's hash rate increased by about 54,400 times; the second halving brought an 85-fold increase; and the third halving, despite a decline in the return rate, still achieved a 409% increase. Meanwhile, the hash rate has transitioned from exponential growth in the early cycles to a more stable expansion on a higher base, currently exceeding 700 EH/s.
Although the unit income growth of miners has slowed due to the Bitcoin reward halving, as the Bitcoin price continues to rise, the absolute scale of miners' total revenue in US dollars is still expanding. In the previous halving cycle, cumulative miner revenue exceeded $3 billion, a magnitude increase compared to the previous halving cycle, further demonstrating that miners are adapting to cost pressures while participating in the network's operation in a more efficient manner.
II. Halving Effect Emerges, Current Bull Market Cycle Not Yet at Its End
The "halving" has always been a key event in the Bitcoin market, representing the technical milestone of block reward reduction, and a crucial catalyst for market sentiment and capital flows. Historical price movements starting from the halving day show significant differences in market performance across different halving cycles, reflecting the market's gradual maturation and the complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics and market expectations. The first halving cycle saw a 5,315% increase in Bitcoin price, with a maximum drawdown of 85%; the second halving cycle grew 1,336%, with a maximum drawdown of 83%; the third halving cycle's growth slowed to 569%, with a maximum drawdown of 77%.
This gradually smoothing volatility indicates that the expansion of market scale and increased capital flows are cushioning the diminishing returns effect of the halvings.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
From the perspective of supply-demand dynamics, the halving rally is not solely driven by the reduction in supply, but rather the result of the dynamic balance between supply and demand and the interplay of market expectations. The pre-emptive entry and long-term positioning of institutional capital have established new price support for the market, while the FOMO sentiment of retail investors has further amplified the gains.
It is worth noting that this halving cycle is the first to break the historical high (ATH) before the halving. Looking at the overall performance before and after the halving, the current market is still in an upward phase, and future growth may continue to find a new balance point in the supply-demand interplay.
III. This Bull Market Cycle's Corrections Are Much Smaller Than Previous Cycles
A notable feature of the current Bitcoin market is the significantly reduced correction magnitude, demonstrating unprecedented buying power and market resilience. Compared to the previous cycles' deep corrections of often over 30% or even 50%, the deepest correction this time has only been around 30%, indirectly reflecting the improvement in the overall supply-demand relationship, as well as the dual support from institutional capital and policy tailwinds. Particularly, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US and the positive changes in the policy environment have injected long-term capital into the market and boosted investor confidence.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
This shallow correction can be seen as a sign of the market's gradual maturation. With the deep involvement of institutional investors, the Bitcoin market is transitioning from the high-volatility phase driven by early retail investors to a more stable development led by institutional capital. Meanwhile, the launch of spot ETFs has provided a convenient entry channel for long-term capital, reducing the severe corrections caused by short-term market sentiment fluctuations.
IV. Bitcoin Dominance Rises, Reaching a Multi-Year High
The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) is an important indicator that measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the entire Altcoin market. Since September 2022, Bitcoin's market share has shown an overall upward trend, at one point breaking through 60% in 2024, with an annual gain of over 10%, reaching the highest level since April 2021. This phenomenon has a historical precedent in Bitcoin's cycles, usually signaling the concentration of capital inflows in the early stages of a bull market.
According to past patterns, the rise in Bitcoin's market share often accompanies the start of a bull market, as capital flows more towards Bitcoin as the core asset during this phase, while the performance of other Altcoins lags. When Bitcoin's market share reaches a peak, market liquidity and investment sentiment are often approaching a critical point. At this time, investors start to take profits, and Bitcoin's market share declines, with the market gradually shifting capital to Altcoins, forming the so-called "Altcoin Season".
Data source: Foresight News, CoinMarketCap
However, the current rise in Bitcoin's market share differs from the past in that the deep involvement of institutional capital and the approval of spot ETFs have further strengthened Bitcoin's dominant position, significantly enhancing its appeal relative to other assets. This may mean that the peak of Bitcoin's market share in the future bull market will be more sustainable, and the arrival of the "Altcoin Season" may be delayed or weakened, with the market structure potentially trending towards a more concentrated pattern.
Market
V. Accelerated Capital Inflow: Significant Increase in Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflows, Stablecoin Market Cap Rises in Tandem
On January 11, 2024, the US SEC announced the fast-track approval of Bitcoin spot ETF listings, authorizing the simultaneous launch of 11 ETFs. This news quickly ignited market enthusiasm and triggered a massive influx of institutional capital. With the official launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the current Bitcoin spot ETFs have locked in holdings of over 1.316 million Bitcoins, accounting for 6.267% of the total supply, significantly higher than the 2.522% held by governments and the total held by private and publicly-listed companies.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode, BitcoinTreasuries
As of the editorial deadline, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $115.78 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $37.09 billion.
On the other hand, the continuous expansion of the stablecoin market, especially the large-scale issuance of Tether, has become another important driver of external capital inflow. In November 2024 alone, Tether cumulatively issued over $13 billion USDT, reaching the fastest issuance pace since 2021. According to data from defillama, the total stablecoin market cap has surpassed $200 billion, currently standing at $204.13 billion, setting a new historical high.
Data source: Foresight News, IntoTheBlock
Among them, the market cap of USDT has risen to $140 billion, once again setting a new record, accounting for 68.96% of the total stablecoin market cap. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 became a turning point in the stablecoin market landscape, leading to a significant contraction in USDC's market share, while USDT's supply has steadily grown.
VI. Top 20 Gainers (within Top 200 Market Cap): The Rise of New Blockchains and Meme Tokens
In 2024, Meme tokens and new blockchains have shown a distinct trend. To more accurately depict this year's development, we focus on the annual gains of tokens within the top 200 market cap, which shows that Meme tokens and new blockchains have become the most active tracks in the market. Among them, Meme tokens such as Popcat, SPX6900, and Mog Coin have surged over 5000%.
Data source: Foresight News, CoinMarketCap (to be processed into a table)
The new blockchain track has also performed strongly, with projects like Mantra, AIOZ Network, and Sui occupying a place in the market through a dual-engine of technological innovation and ecosystem expansion. These blockchains are not only relying on general technological advantages, but also focusing on unique track positioning and differentiated development.
For example, Mantra is transforming into an RWA blockchain, further exploring the tokenization of on-chain assets and the connection with the real financial market; AIOZ Network is centered on AI+DePIN, building a Layer 1 designed specifically for artificial intelligence applications and decentralized infrastructure; while Sui's innovation lies in its SUI Move language, which enhances the development efficiency and security of smart contracts through a new programming language design, while also optimizing the user experience on-chain.
VII. The Emergence of Meme Launchpads as a Key Driver for New Token Surges
Ethereum was the primary choice for Meme tokens in the early days due to its mature smart contract standards, but in 2024, the rise of Meme Launchpad platforms like Pump.fun has further propelled this trend.
According to data from The Block, as of September 30th this year, out of the 110,180 new tokens tracked on-chain, Solana accounted for 96,010, making up over 87% of all new tokens appearing on DEXes. The number of new Solana blockchain tokens has skyrocketed from near-zero levels at the beginning of 2024 to consistently over 100,000 per month by mid-year. While Solana is in the lead, Base has also performed well. Since April, these two chains have collectively accounted for over 80% of new token issuances.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
Pump.fun's design has simplified the Meme token issuance process, allowing users to quickly create their own tokens through simple operations. Its unique bonding curve pricing mechanism enables token prices to automatically adjust based on demand, while the smart contract's liquidity injection function ensures new tokens have sufficient liquidity in the initial trading period. This innovative model, characterized by low barriers and high liquidity, has greatly stimulated community vitality and simultaneously driven the development of Solana.
VIII. The Resurgence of the Solana DeFi Ecosystem in 2024
The distribution and dynamic changes of total TVL across different ecosystems show that Ethereum still dominates the DeFi landscape in 2024, accounting for 64.06% of the market. Solana ranks second with an 8.83% share, demonstrating its strong rebound in 2024.
Meanwhile, the market shares of chains like BSC and TRON have remained relatively stable, while emerging chains like Arbitrum and Sui have exhibited rapid growth potential. The area chart shows that Ethereum's share has slightly declined since 2022, contrasting with the rise of other chains, particularly Solana's significant rebound starting in 2023. This trend reflects the accelerated maturity of the multi-chain ecosystem and the dynamic changes in the competitive landscape, where, although Ethereum still maintains a dominant position, market resources are being distributed more diversely and towards specialized chains.
Data source: Foresight News, defillama
Solana's resurgence is closely tied to the prosperity of its ecosystem, particularly the rise of Solana-based Meme tokens in 2024, which have significantly driven user growth on the chain. The popularity of Meme tokens has attracted new users to the Solana network, substantially increasing on-chain activity and transaction volume. These tokens have injected new vitality into the Solana ecosystem, enabling it to quickly recover from the "sinking ecosystem" state.
According to the latest data, Solana's TVL has reached $21.4 billion, with a total market cap exceeding $100.6 billion. According to Blockworks Research data, in October, Solana's daily on-chain fees have consistently exceeded Ethereum, even reaching over $10 million on October 24th. In November, Solana accounted for nearly 50% of the monthly DEX trading volume across all chains, 175% higher than Ethereum's approximately 18% share.
IX. CEXes Dominate the Market, DEXes Shine in Long-Tail Assets and Cross-Chain Trading
In 2024, the trading volume share of DEXes has fluctuated significantly, generally ranging between 10% to 15% and failing to break through to new highs. In February, the DEX/CEX trading volume ratio reached a low point of 7.88% for the year, but subsequently rebounded as the market recovered and liquidity improved.
The current market landscape is still dominated by CEXes, as DEXes, despite their clear advantages in long-tail assets and cross-chain trading, are still constrained by challenges in liquidity, user experience, and compliance. The 2024 fluctuations also indicate that the usage of DEXes is highly correlated with market sentiment, with their trading activity increasing when risk appetite rises.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
In addition, compared to traditional CEXs, the prospects for on-chain derivative trading are also opening up rapidly. Decentralized trading platforms represented by Hyperliquid are attracting more and more traders and institutions with liquidity and execution efficiency comparable to centralized exchanges, as well as transparent operating mechanisms and innovative token economic models. The success of Hyperliquid shows that on-chain derivative trading is continuously narrowing the gap with traditional CEXs in terms of efficiency and depth, and is also exhibiting the huge growth potential of the on-chain derivative market through unique incentive models and an open ecosystem.
X. NFT Craze Difficult to Reach New Highs: Deflation Stage
After a prolonged period of sluggishness, the NFT market has shown signs of recovery towards the end of the year. According to a report by Galaxy Research, NFT trading volume has been gradually recovering since the U.S. presidential election in November, reaching a high of $172 million in early December, the highest level since May this year. This recovery was mainly driven by the increased activity of top market platforms such as OpenSea, Blur, and Magic Eden, with Blur and OpenSea accounting for 60% and 27% of the market share respectively in the past 30 days. At the same time, blue-chip NFT series such as Pudgy Penguins have performed particularly well, with their floor prices rising 206% and 265% respectively.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
However, despite the recovery in trading volume, the market as a whole is still in a deflation stage. Compared to the NFT craze in 2021, the current rebound is more driven by top blue-chip projects and core user groups, rather than widespread market enthusiasm or speculative behavior. The NFT trading ecosystem is also gradually adjusting, shifting from a sole reliance on high speculative returns to a greater focus on the actual application scenarios and community participation of projects.
Summary
In general, the crypto market welcomed a new high point in 2024, exhibiting strong resilience and vitality. Bitcoin, as the market bellwether, has attracted deep institutional participation driven by the launch of spot ETFs, and has also cemented its position as a core asset through continuous market share growth.
The rise of new public chains and Meme coins has created unique prosperity in the market's peripheral tracks, demonstrating the strong potential of community-driven innovation and economics. Whether it is the continuous innovation in DeFi or the accelerated implementation of RWA, the diversified development of the on-chain ecosystem and the gradual improvement of infrastructure have created more possibilities for future market growth.
The market performance in 2024 is not just a cyclical prosperity, but also the gestation of a new order. In the upcoming new stage, the crypto industry may further consolidate its important position in the global economic landscape, laying a solid foundation for the future development of digital finance and on-chain economics.
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