Binance’s Bitcoin reserves fall below 570,000! Hitting a new low in 2024, will the miracle of soaring 90% happen again?

data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance's Bitcoin reserves have recently fallen below 570,000 coins, reaching the lowest level since January of this year. When exchange reserves decrease, it usually indicates that investors are transferring Bitcoins to cold wallets, expressing confidence in the long-term price trend. It is worth noting that Binance's Bitcoin reserves also dropped to a similar level in January, and two months later on March 13, the Bitcoin price soared 90% to $73,679, setting a new high record at the time. If Bitcoin follows the same pattern again, based on the current price, Bitcoin could reach $187,500 in a few months. CryptoQuant analysts point out that the appearance of withdrawal peaks is usually a sign of the market accumulating positive momentum. Additionally, the market is also focused on whether the "altcoin season" is coming. Based on past bull market experiences, when Bitcoin's market dominance remains at the high level of 60%, the altcoin season will arrive soon. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin's market dominance is currently 58.4%, slightly below the critical 60% level. Some analysts believe that a level below 60% may imply that the market is rotating into other cryptocurrencies.

When will BTC return to $100,000?

Since BTC first broke through the $100,000 psychological barrier on the 5th, it has remained below $100,000 since the 19th. The market is concerned about when BTC will return to this important level. Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee believes that BTC may exceed $105,000 when liquidity rebounds after the Christmas holidays. Ryan Lee analyzed that the recent downward trend of BTC is a typical phenomenon of lack of holiday liquidity:

After Christmas, market activity will usually become active again, and funds are expected to be actively allocated to areas that may benefit from Trump's upcoming tenure... The expected trading range for BTC this week is $94,000 to $105,000.

Previously, K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde stated that based on the previous bull market cycle, the average duration from the first historical high to the last historical high in each bull market cycle is 318 days. Calculating from BTC's first historical high on March 5 this year, BTC may reach the new high of this bull market cycle on January 17 next year. Vetle Lunde mentioned that in this cycle, based on the previous bull market peak estimates, BTC's peak level may be around $146,000, and if based on the previous market capitalization as a reference, BTC in this cycle may reach as high as $212,500.