The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has declined, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is still 91.4%.

The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits declined last week, indicating the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs in the final stages of 2024. The U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday that 219,000 people applied for new jobless claims in the week ending December 21, down from 220,000 the prior week and compared to a market expectation of 225,000. The U.S. unemployment rate is currently 4.2%, which is still relatively mild by historical standards over the past decade. However, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly during 2024, a sign of a softening labor market, as evidenced by fewer job openings per job seeker, a decline in new hires, and more industries cutting back on hiring. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 91.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 8.6%.