[Coin Report] Is Bitcoin's 'Santa Rally' Already Over? Falling to $95,000

Bit (BTC), which had a brief surge in the 'Santa Rally', has retreated to the $95,000 level. As of 5:14 pm on the 27th, based on CoinMarketCap, the price of BTC is down 1% from the previous day at $95,775. BTC, which had a 6% surge to the late $90,000s before and after Christmas, has returned to the $95,000 level in just two days.

The expiration of $14.3 billion (about 21.925 trillion won) in BTC options on this day is cited as the cause of the BTC price decline, as it has increased the volatility in the crypto asset market. According to the crypto options exchange Deribit, $14.3 billion worth of BTC options expired at 5 pm Korean time on the 27th. Adam, an analyst at the crypto options trading tool Glassnode Live, analyzed that "with the large-scale expiration of crypto options this week, major investors are actively adjusting their positions" and "the current market's risk aversion tendency is strong, so deleveraging is expected to occur before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump."

While the price of BTC is sluggish, there has also been a continued outflow of funds from BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on the US stock market. On the 24th, the BlackRock BTC spot ETF product IBIT recorded a net outflow of $188.7 million (about 276.7 billion won), the largest since its launch. Not only IBIT, but the entire BTC spot ETF products have also seen continued net outflows, with $1.5 billion (about 2.1945 trillion won) being withdrawn over the past 4 trading days until the 24th. On the 26th, BTC spot ETFs turned to net inflows after 5 trading days.

The industry has mixed views on the direction of the BTC price. Citigroup analyzed that the macroeconomic environment may be less favorable for crypto assets next year. Citigroup said in a report that "the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue the preference for risky assets such as crypto assets until the first quarter of next year, but the situation thereafter is uncertain" and "the macroeconomic environment may be less favorable for crypto assets due to policy uncertainty in the US and increased stock market volatility." Jacob King, an analyst at the crypto news letter Whale Wire, criticized that "BTC is completely useless. It has evolved into a malicious fraud supported by delusional speculators" and "it is just a game of musical chairs, and the ending will not be good."

On the other hand, there are also optimistic forecasts that BTC could reach $100,000 again this year. It is analyzed that Binance's BTC market price buy trading volume has been on an upward trend since October 28. It is also suggested that on-chain data still indicates BTC bullishness. Joo Kyung-young, CEO of CryptoQuant, said through X that "looking at on-chain data, more than $7 billion in capital is flowing into the crypto asset market every week. We are clearly in the middle of a bull market" and "this is not a bubble stage, and even if a decline occurs, it is likely to be a short-term correction."

K33 Research reported that "if history repeats itself, BTC could reach the peak of this cycle within 3 weeks" and "based on the analysis of BTC's previous cycles, it could reach a new cycle high on January 17 next year." It also said that "if it coincides with the inauguration of President-elect Trump on January 20, Bit (BTC) could rise to $146,000 to $212,500."

Reporter Kim Jung-woo

woo@decenter.kr