Odaily星球日报讯 美元指数升至两年高位，因市场预计美联储将在 2025 年采取更为谨慎的降息方式。市场押注候任总统特朗普的政策，包括拟议的贸易关税和减税，将加剧通货膨胀，限制降息。丹斯克银行的穆罕默德•萨拉夫在一份报告中表示：“由于美国经济具有弹性，市场目前预计全年降息 25 个基点的幅度不会超过两次，这将支撑美元。”去年 12 月，美联储也曾暗示将放缓降息步伐。（金十）

市场预期美联储采取更为谨慎的降息，美元触及两年高位

Odaily Odaily News: The US dollar index rose to a two-year high as the market expects the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach to rate cuts in 2025. The market is betting that President-elect Trump&#39;s policies, including proposed trade tariffs and tax cuts, will increase inflation and limit rate cuts. &quot;Due to the resilience of the US economy, the market currently expects no more than two 25 basis point rate cuts throughout the year, which will support the dollar,&quot; Mohammed Saraf of Danske Bank said in a report. In December last year, the Federal Reserve also hinted that it would slow the pace of rate cuts. (Jinshi)

Dollar hits two-year high as market expects Fed to take more cautious rate cuts

Odaily Report: According to an analysis by K33 Research, despite the global stock index decline, <BTC> remains above $95,000. However, on a weekly basis, <BTC> has declined in sync with major stock indices. K33 Research head Vetle Lunde stated that "in the past two weeks since the FOMC meeting, global risk has decreased, with <BTC>'s two-week return at -11% and <ETH> falling 15%, driving the <ETH/BTC> rate down to 0.036." Vetle said the current decline in <BTC> is closely related to the global stock market. Since the end of September, this digital asset's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq has exceeded 0.50 for the first time. He believes the FOMC meeting on December 18 was a key factor in the market decline. At this meeting, the Fed's dot plot was revised to expect two rate cuts by 2025, lower than the four predicted in September. Rate cuts often boost the market, so the reduced number of expected cuts is unfavorable for risk assets like <BTC>. Vetle noted that "while the Fed has lowered rates by 100 basis points since September, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 100 basis points, indicating the market expects future inflationary pressures." He pointed out that after the FOMC meeting, <BTC> experienced significant ETF outflows, and <MicroStrategy>'s purchases have also become more restrained. (The Block)

K33 Research: Global markets digest the Fed's 2025 rate cut expectations, and Bitcoin is closely related to stock market performance

Odaily reports that Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen believes that while policymakers and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of the economy overheating, he thinks an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur by 2025, and such a surprise could ultimately lead to a stock market correction of at least 10%. Paulsen cites several indicators that point to weakening economic growth, such as the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, volatility in bond yields, and the U.S. Financial Conditions Index, and says that if the unexpected economic slowdown exacerbates people's concerns, the stock market may pause its upward trend, even if it's not a 10% to 15% correction. (Jinshi)

Analysts: The U.S. economy may unexpectedly slow down next year, causing the stock market to fall back by 10%

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March is 47.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.3%.