Odaily星球日报讯 美联储巴尔金表示，越来越认识到长期利率可能不会像曾经希望的那样大幅下降。金融市场的不确定性似乎已经下降，市场对政策路径的预测与美联储的中值预期相一致，通胀存在一些潜在的上行风险。2025 年的故事将更少关注货币政策，更多关注经济基本面，或许还涉及地缘政治。（金十）

美联储巴尔金：长期利率可能不会像曾经希望的那样大幅下降

Odaily Odaily News: Fed&#39;s Barkin said there is a growing awareness that long-term interest rates may not fall as much as once hoped. Uncertainty in financial markets seems to have declined, and market forecasts for the policy path are consistent with the Fed&#39;s median expectations, with some potential upside risks to inflation. The story of 2025 will focus less on monetary policy and more on economic fundamentals, and perhaps geopolitics. (Jinshi)

Fed's Barkin: Long-term rates may not fall as much as once hoped

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March is 47.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%.

Odaily reports that according to the minutes published by the Bank of Greece on Thursday, Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, told Skai TV in Greece that "the ECB's benchmark interest rate should be around 2% around the autumn of 2025." He stated that this forecast would still be affected by "unforeseen circumstances" and mentioned risk factors in Europe and the US. Economists and investors believe that as the inflation rate stabilizes at the 2% target, the ECB will cut rates at each of its meetings before mid-2025, as the region's economy is struggling.

ECB policymakers expect the interest rate to be lowered to 2% by the fall

<分析師：美元將在 2025 上半年繼續走強>
Analysts: The US dollar will continue to strengthen in the first half of 2025

<Fed 1 月維持利率不變機率達 88.8%>
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%

<分析師：美元持續走強恐不利比特幣>
Analysts: The continued strength of the US dollar may be unfavorable for Bitcoin