Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 在其市场分析中指出，虽然预计新年伊始会出现一些最初的热情，但现在还不是经历类似 2024 年 1 月下旬至 3 月或 9 月下旬至 12 月中旬那种看涨情绪的时候。预计今年开局良好，随后在 1 月 15 日发布 CPI 数据前会略有回落。有利的通胀数据可能会重新点燃乐观情绪，推动 1 月 20 日特朗普就职典礼前的反弹。然而，这种势头可能会减弱，市场可能会在 1 月 29 日 FOMC 会议前有所回落。 从 2024 年 1 月到 11 月中旬，比特币的主导地位从 50%升至 60%，给山寨币的表现带来了重大阻力。尽管主导地位指标在三周内短暂跌至 53%（引发了人们对山寨币季的希望），但它很快反弹至近 58%，然后稳定在 55%左右。这种整合凸显了比特币作为加密市场主要驱动力的持久主导地位，同时也预示着山寨币可能面临挑战，除非比特币主导地位指标再次下跌。

Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 在其市场分析中指出，虽然预计新年伊始会出现一些最初的热情，但现在还不是经历类似 2024 年 1 月下旬至 3 月或 9 月下旬至 12 月中旬那种看涨情绪的时候。预计今年开局良好，随后在 1 月 15 日发布 CPI 数据前会略有回落。有利的通胀数据可能会重新点燃乐观情绪，推动 1 月 20 日特朗普就职典礼前的反弹。然而，这种势头可能会减弱，市场可能会在 1 月 29 日 FOMC 会议前有所回落。从 2024 年 1 月到 11 月中旬，比特币的主导地位从 50%升至 60%，给山寨币的表现带来了重大阻力。尽管主导地位指标在三周内短暂跌至 53%（引发了人们对山寨币季的希望），但它很快反弹至近 58%，然后稳定在 55%左右。这种整合凸显了比特币作为加密市场主要驱动力的持久主导地位，同时也预示着山寨币可能面临挑战，除非比特币主导地位指标再次下跌。

10x Research：预计今年开局良好，随后在1月15日CPI数据发布前小幅回落

Odaily reported that according to 10x Research's market analysis, while some initial enthusiasm is expected at the start of the new year, this is not yet the time to experience the bullish sentiment seen in late January to March or late September to mid-December 2024. A good start to the year is expected, followed by a slight pullback before the CPI data release on January 15. Favorable inflation data may reignite optimism and drive a rebound before the January 20 Trump inauguration. However, this momentum may wane, and the market may pull back before the January 29 FOMC meeting. From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's dominance rose from 50% to 60%, posing a significant obstacle to the performance of <Altcoins>. Although the dominance index briefly fell to 53% in three weeks (sparking hopes of an <Altcoin> season), it quickly rebounded to nearly 58% and then stabilized around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's persistent dominance as the primary driver of the crypto market, while also suggesting that <Altcoins> may face challenges unless the Bitcoin dominance index declines again.

Odaily reported that according to 10x Research's market analysis, while some initial enthusiasm is expected at the start of the new year, this is not yet the time to experience a bullish sentiment similar to late January to March 2024 or late September to mid-December. A good start to the year is expected, followed by a slight pullback before the CPI data release on January 15. Favorable inflation data could reignite optimism and drive a rebound before the Trump inauguration on January 20. However, this momentum may wane, and the market may see a pullback before the January 29 FOMC meeting. From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's dominance rose from 50% to 60%, posing a significant challenge to the performance of Altcoins. Although the dominance index briefly fell to 53% in three weeks (sparking hopes for an Altcoin season), it quickly rebounded to nearly 58% and then stabilized around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's persistent dominance as the primary driver of the crypto market, while also suggesting that Altcoins may face challenges unless Bitcoin's dominance index declines again.

10x Research: Expect a good start to the year, followed by a slight decline before the release of CPI data on January 15

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The crypto world's darling of global speculators, the largest ETF tracking Bitcoin, saw the biggest outflow of funds on record this week, while the volatility indicator of US Treasuries quietly rose, and the US stock market recorded the worst year-end decline on record. There are no signs of panic in the market, but the market trend does indicate a sense of caution that has been largely absent over the past 12 months, at least in the risk asset space. Concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation have awakened the hedge market. Next week's non-farm payroll report will play a key role in shaping market sentiment. The key points that the market will focus on in the coming week are as follows:

· Monday 22:30, speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook;
· Tuesday 18:00, Eurozone December CPI YoY/MoM preliminary, Eurozone November unemployment rate;
· Tuesday 23:00, US December ISM non-manufacturing PMI, US November JOLTS job openings;
· Wednesday 21:15, US December ADP employment;
· Thursday 03:00, FOMC releases minutes of December monetary policy meeting;
· Thursday 09:30, China December CPI YoY;
· Thursday 20:30, US December Challenger job cuts;
· Thursday 22:00, 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speech;
· Friday 01:40, 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speech;
· Friday 02:30, 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President George speech on economic and monetary policy outlook;
· Friday 21:30, US December unemployment rate, US December non-farm payrolls, US December average hourly earnings YoY/MoM;
· Friday 23:00, US January 1-year inflation rate expectation preliminary, US January Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary.

Macro outlook for next week: The Fed is expected to be more cautious, and non-agricultural data may add fuel to the dollar

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The Mars Finance news reported that the market showed an unusually cautious sentiment towards risk assets this week. The largest ETF tracking Bitcoin experienced the most severe capital outflow in its history, U.S. stocks recorded the worst year-end decline on record, and the volatility of U.S. Treasuries rose, indicating that concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation have awakened the hedge market. The non-farm employment report next week will play a core role in influencing market sentiment. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:

· Monday 22:30, speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook;
· Tuesday 23:00, U.S. December ISM non-manufacturing PMI, U.S. November JOLTS job openings;
· Wednesday 21:15, U.S. December ADP employment;
· Thursday 03:00, release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting;
· Thursday 20:30, U.S. December Challenger job cuts;
· Friday 21:30, U.S. December unemployment rate, U.S. December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls.

Next week, the U.S. will release several labor market data, starting with the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday, followed by the ADP employment data on Wednesday, and finally the non-farm data on Friday. It is worth noting that the December non-farm data is the first report in several months that is not affected by one-time factors. UBS expects the U.S. to add nearly the recent average number of jobs in December, continuing to show a gradual cooling of the labor market, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while weak data may lead the market to consider further rate cuts. However, U.S. data is unlikely to weaken the U.S. dollar index at this stage.

Macro Outlook: The Fed is expected to be more cautious, and the non-farm payrolls report will affect market sentiment

The technology stocks led the US stocks to rise on Friday, breaking away from the sluggish start of 2025. The three major US stock indexes closed higher, but on a weekly basis, they still fell slightly. The top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization all rose yesterday. <XRP> rose nearly 15% in a week, surging to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value. <SUI> continued to hit a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 479%, and its market value rose to the 10th position in the cryptocurrency market (excluding stablecoins).

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- ISM Manufacturing Index Rises to a Nine-Month High
- Tech Giants Counterattack
- Important Data Next Week
- ...

10x Research: Expect a good start to the year, followed by a slight decline before the release of CPI data on January 15

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