Overview of Important Events This Week (1/05-1/11)
Altcoin weakened this week against the backdrop of strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations being blocked; it once fell below $91,000. However, with Trump's imminent inauguration and active institutional trading, the industry generally expects that BTC has not yet reached its peak this year.
In addition, with Huang Renxun's high-profile declaration of AI Agent as the future at CES, this track is still receiving great attention, with DeFAI, game agents, and investment DAOs becoming new hotspots.
This week, a 30-year-old man surnamed Chen from Kaohsiung, Taiwan was arrested by the police for illegally engaging in virtual currency individual currency trader transactions without completing the required registration. This is the first case discovered after the new Anti-Money Laundering Act came into effect, which has also sparked discussions about users' private transactions of cryptocurrencies potentially violating the law.
- Altcoin Dynamics: Bhutan will include BTC, ETH, and BNB in its strategic reserves; the Czech central bank is considering including BTC in its foreign exchange reserves; Bernstein: Altcoin has entered the "infinite era"
- Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are limited, and the December FOMC meeting minutes indicate a slower pace of rate cuts.
- Trump: Can he fulfill his 10 new cryptocurrency policies after taking office? The probability of him establishing a BTC reserve within his first 100 days may have two main paths.
- United States: The US approved the sale of $65 million in BTC from the Silk Road, and there was the first conviction for BTC tax evasion!
- South Korea: Will gradually open up corporate institutional accounts to participate in cryptocurrencies, and promote the legalization of security token offerings (STOs).
- China: Government bond yields hit new lows, and Shanghai used car dealer Cango entered the US BTC mining market.
- Jensen Huang: Optimistic about AI agents driving a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.
- Arthur Hayes: Expects Altcoin to "peak in March" and recommends taking profits by the end of the quarter.
- A quick overview of the 4 main categories of AI Agents: Frameworks, Launchpads, Applications, and Memes.
Changes in Trading Market Data This Week
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator this week declined from a high of 72 (Greed) to 50 (Greed), indicating an overall easing of sentiment.
2. Sector Performance
According to Artemis data, the average decline of the blockchain sector this week was -11.2%, with the best performing sector being Centralized Exchange, leading the market at 4.0%.
This week, the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum were -3.3% and -8.4% respectively. The three worst-performing sectors were Bridge (-17.7%), Perp DEX (-16.6%), and DeFi (-16.4%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
This week's data on total cryptocurrency market cap shows a decline from $3.55 trillion to $3.28 trillion. BTC dominance is 54.59%, and ETH dominance is 11.81%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, decreased from $190.24 billion to $190.17 billion, a drop of $0.07 billion or about 0.04%.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
Data shows that exchange assets have been in a net inflow state this week. This phenomenon may indicate that investors are preparing for upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds to exchanges could mean an increase in short-term buying demand.
However, compared to the peak single-day net inflow of $15.8 billion in December, the highest single-day net inflow this week was $3.29 billion, significantly lower than the previous weeks.
3. Altcoin Performance
In the Altcoin market this week, IQ, Hive, and MovieBloc led with gains of +44.9%, +38%, and +25.5% respectively. According to data from Blockchaincenter, the current Altcoin Season Index is 47 (down 0 from last week).
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows
This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an inflow of $1.3695 billion.
2. Bitcoin Open Interest Falls Below $60 Billion
According to data, during the recent decline in Bitcoin price, the total open interest across the network has fallen below $60 billion, roughly back to the level seen in November last year.
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($95,000) is in the "Considering DCA" range.
5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained in negative territory for most of the time, indicating relatively weak demand in the US market, similar to the trend last week. This reflects the US market's sensitivity to downward price movements and low demand pressure.
Note: A positive premium usually indicates stronger buying power of US investors compared to the global market, but based on historical data, if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is usually a buying opportunity.
6. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows significant volatility in the realized net profit/loss of the Bitcoin market, with the market transitioning from a profit-taking phase as prices retreated from the highs, to a more cautious sentiment.
7. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
According to on-chain data, while the net position of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) continues to decrease, the selling pressure has noticeably eased compared to the previous concentrated sell-offs. As Bitcoin price stabilizes at higher levels, some holders may have realized their gains, leading to a more balanced market flow. However, if the selling pressure further subsides, signals of long-term holders re-accumulating positions could help improve market sentiment and provide support for future price appreciation.
The selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders has eased to some extent.
8. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power
According to on-chain data, the supply held by short-term Bitcoin holders continues to increase, reflecting active market trading activity, while the supply held by long-term holders is gradually decreasing, indicating that some capital has chosen to realize their gains. This shift in the supply structure suggests improved market liquidity, but also comes with higher price volatility risks.
This Week's Market Analysis News
1. Bitcoin Rebounds to $95,000, Ethereum Surges to $3,400 - Is Market Liquidity Returning?
Bitcoin has been falling recently, and the US Bitcoin spot ETF has also seen massive outflows. However, analysts say the current correction may only be temporary, and Trump's inauguration on January 20 may trigger the next market rebound. (Continue reading)
2. Bitcoin forms a "head and shoulders top" pattern, analysts: if the key support is breached, it may plummet to $75,000
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant correction recently, losing $6,000 in a single night. Technical analysis shows it may be forming a "head and shoulders top" pattern, and if the key support is breached, it could trigger deeper selling pressure, with the price potentially dropping to the $75,000 range. (Continue reading)
3. Bloomberg warns: US stocks are in a state of "irrational exuberance", what does Greenspan's valuation indicator reveal?
The Wall Street bull market continues, with US stocks constantly hitting new highs. However, a valuation indicator for the US stock market shows that current valuations are in line with the levels that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan described as "irrational exuberance" in December 1996, and have reached the highest level since 2002, indicating that the downside risk for US stocks has increased. (Continue reading)
4. Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may "peak in March", suggests selling and waiting until Q3, has positioned in 7 DeSci tokens
In his latest article, Arthur Hayes analyzes the impact of US dollar liquidity on Bitcoin, pointing out that the release of funds from the Fed's RRP and the US Treasury's TGA will provide about $612 billion in liquidity in Q1 to support the crypto market rally. However, he predicts that the peak will be at the end of March, and recommends that investors exit the market by the end of Q1. (Continue reading)
5. From $200 to $100,000, the memoir of a Bitcoin player who entered the market in 2013
This is the Bitcoin journey of TONX founder Dr. Awesome Doge, who has witnessed earth-shattering changes over the past decade, something unimaginable in 2014 when Bitcoin's price went from $200 to over $100,000, which is just a part of the story. (Continue reading)
Cryptocurrency Regulatory Landscape
1. New policy in South Korea: Gradually open up real-name accounts for companies and financial institutions to participate in cryptocurrency trading
2. First US conviction for Bitcoin tax evasion! Court orders surrender of $124 million in BTC private keys, 2-year jail sentence
Texas resident Frank Ahlgren III was sentenced to two years in prison and ordered to pay $1.09 million in restitution for failing to properly report Bitcoin trading income, resulting in a tax loss of over $550,000 to the government. The court also ordered him to surrender the private keys and related storage devices for over $124 million worth of Bitcoin. (Continue reading)
3. Bhutan's administrative region announces it will include Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB in its strategic reserves, CZ praises: a wise move
Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), a special administrative region of Bhutan, announced yesterday (8th) that it has included Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB, the three major cryptocurrencies, in its asset reserves. (Continue reading)
As Donald Trump is set to officially take office as the US President on January 20, 2025, global attention is focused on how this unconventional political figure will fulfill his campaign promises on the top 10 cryptocurrency policies. (Continue reading)
Market Highlights Next Week
1/14 (Tue)
- US: December Producer Price Index PPI (YoY), forecast 0.3%, prior 0.4%
1/15 (Wed)
- UK: December Consumer Price Index CPI (YoY), prior 2.6%
- US: December Core Consumer Price Index CPI (MoM), forecast -0.1%, prior 0.3%
- US: December Consumer Price Index CPI (MoM), forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- US: December Consumer Price Index CPI (YoY), prior 2.7%
- US: Crude Oil Inventories, prior -0.959M
1/16 (Thu)
- UK: November Gross Domestic Product GDP (MoM), prior -0.1%
- Eurozone: Germany December Consumer Price Index CPI (MoM), forecast 0.4%, prior -0.2%
- US: December Core Retail Sales (MoM), forecast 0.4%, prior 0.2%
- US: Initial Jobless Claims, prior 201K
- US: January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, prior -16.4
- US: December Retail Sales (MoM), forecast 0.5%, prior 0.7%
1/17 (Fri)
- China: Q4 Gross Domestic Product GDP (YoY), forecast 5.1%, prior 4.6%
- China: December Industrial Production (YoY), forecast 5.5%, prior 5.4%
- Eurozone: December Consumer Price Index CPI (YoY), forecast 2.4%, prior 2.2%
