Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
These days, there's not much to talk about in the market, as it seems that more people are focused on changes in macroeconomic factors, such as the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies and the earnings season in the US stock market. Of course, there are also some related dynamics in the crypto space, such as:
- It is said that Coinbase has received a subpoena from the US CFTC, requesting customer data related to Polymarket.
- Grayscale is considering some digital assets, including KAS, APT, ARB, TIA, HBAR, etc., for future investment products (don't just copy the homework).
- Messari plans to lay off about 15% of its staff.
- The US Department of Justice plans to sue the operators of the cryptocurrency mixing services Blender and Sinbad.
- Pendle will launch a $6.1 million airdrop to vePENDLE holders.
- The US Senate Banking Committee will establish the first subcommittee dedicated to cryptocurrencies.
- Circle donated $1 million USDC to the Trump Inaugural Committee, and the committee is willing to accept stablecoin donations.
- Standard Chartered will provide cryptocurrency custody services in the EU.
- The Russian Ministry of Finance will sell the Bitcoin assets (1,032 BTC) seized from the Infraud hacking group.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's speech caused all quantum computing stocks to plummet (quantum computing will not be realized within the next 20 years).
- Animecoin has released the ANIME token economics, and HYPE stakers can receive airdrops.
- Since Binance announced the listing of ZEREBRO (an AI Meme on Solana) perps, the token has been continuously declining for more than 10 days (what else can be said, the retail investors are in tears).
... It feels like there is endless news every day. How to quickly find the information that is useful to oneself from the massive amount of news is a problem that needs to be constantly improved. But personally, I don't recommend spending too much time reading news every day. I prefer to read more in-depth articles or documentary-style documents. If you don't have that much time for reading, you can also consider using ChatGPT or GroK2 to quickly extract the core content of the documents.
After discussing the information I've been following these days, let's continue to talk about the topics of escaping the bull market top and the effects of learning.
1. On the issue of escaping the bull market top
A few days ago (January 10th), Boss Heng gave a sharing session on the topic of escaping the bull market top and buying the dips in the bear market. After the sharing, he also shared a summary document of over 7,000 words in the group, and used Excel to summarize more than 40 commonly used indicators for escaping the top and buying the dips, showing that Boss Heng has done in-depth and thoughtful research on this matter, which is worth learning from by all of us. As shown in the following image.
Here I will briefly select a few of Boss Heng's views to share with you (with some private numbers hidden):
- The market cannot have the majority of people making money, as each round is just finding new retail investors to hold the bags. The main capital will mostly only build positions at the very bottom, and distribute them to the lucky ones at the peak area.
- The biggest positive news, the craziest time, is the most crazy distribution moment.
- The opportunity to make big money only exists in the liquidity-depleted bear market. The time to lose big money is when the market is full of greed and noise in the bull market.
- My cost is below $20,000, and I have already started to sell in batches according to the plan, which is the exit plan formulated after completing the bear market buy-in.
- Currently, there is at most less than ** days left before the first possible (theoretically) peak, which means that we may face a massive correction of up to 50% at any time.
- The time you least want to leave the bull market is the time you should leave.
- When everyone has no confidence, you should believe in hope. When everyone is full of confidence, you should doubt the risk.
Recently, many people have been discussing the topic of escaping the bull market top, but I've found that on social media, a lot of people's approaches or ideas are still just looking at the price. For example, some KOLs tell you not to sell, but to wait until Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $1 million before selling. Some KOLs even assure you that Bitcoin will definitely reach $1 million this year, and then you obediently listen and go all-in on Bitcoin at $100,000, deciding to hold on and wait to get rich. But do you know if those KOLs actually have any Bitcoin themselves? Or whether their average cost is the same as yours?
Any trading should be based on your own position management, and we have discussed and reviewed the topic of position management many times before, and interested partners can directly search and review it in the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" (Volume 1 + Volume 2) of Talk Li Talk Outside. As shown in the following image.
On the basis of reasonable position management (suitable for your own risk preference), we can then combine some on-chain indicators, K-line indicators, macroeconomic factors, news, or even some KOL's personal views as auxiliary judgments, which is a relatively more rational investment operation approach. Of course, if you have already formed your own "methodology" (we will discuss the issue of methodology later), you can also directly ignore some of the influencing factors.
Otherwise, if you are just following the crowd or relying solely on your own so-called feelings to conduct trading operations, then you are most likely just coming to the market to provide cannon fodder (capital) for it.
Here we can give a specific example, just take a look at one of the on-chain indicators of Long-term Holders, as shown in the following image.
What can you discover through this single indicator?
Here are some simple references: Based on the indicator data in the figure, it seems that some long-term holders (including Smart Money) are currently exiting, leaving the subsequent short-term holders to take over the bags. The red area has just touched the dotted line below, which, from this indicator alone, appears to be a dangerous signal, seemingly marking a new top area of the relative cycle.
So, with some KOLs telling you that Bitcoin will reach $1 million this year, and some indicators suggesting that you are entering a relatively dangerous area, how should you act to maximize your own interests?
I cannot provide you with a specific answer to this question, as everyone's position situation and risk preference are different, and you need to find the answer that suits you best.
Some people can find greater earning opportunities in the most dangerous bull market top area, while others get trapped and even lose money in the stage top, as there is no one-size-fits-all standard answer in this market.
And different people also have different views on the bull market top issue.
Some KOLs believe that the current market is just the beginning and starting point of the bull market, and I've even seen some KOLs say that the bull market hasn't even started yet. I don't know what the basis of their judgment is. If their vision is already set 20 years into the future, then saying that the current market is just the starting point or that the bull market hasn't started yet, I can agree with that. Otherwise, if we only look at it from the perspective of the short-term cycle, then this round of the bull market has already lasted quite a long time, from the relative bottom area of $15,000 to the current level, so how can it be said that the bull market hasn't even started?
Of course, if you can also extend your vision to 10 years or 20 years in the future, then it's still the old saying from the previous Talk Li Talk Outside article: for the future, BTC is never too expensive to buy at any time, you can always maintain a coin-based mindset.
But if your vision can only be focused on the next few months, weeks, or even days, requiring you to trade N times, then you need to customize a strict trading strategy based on your position management, and think about what skills (such as your proficiency in K-line indicators, your access to first-hand information sources...) or strengths (such as your patience compared to most people, your sufficient time and energy for learning and research...) you have to ensure that you can outperform the majority of the "cannon fodder" in the market.
In short, as for when the bull market will top out, there is no standard answer to this question. Whether it's the article shared by Hua Li Hua Wai before, the live broadcast shared by Boss Heng a few days ago, or the views and execution strategies on escaping the top shared by other partners in the group, these can only serve as a reference for you. In fact, the question you need to ask the most is not others, but yourself or your own position.
2. On the issue of learning effectiveness
In the previous article, we mentioned that in the whole of last year (2024), we spent most of our time sorting out the "methods", so we named the e-book collection of the previous year as "Blockchain Methodology" (originally wanted to call it "Crypto Methodology", but still felt that the word "Blockchain" is cooler).
But I've recently found a problem, which is that many people seem to be limited to the "reading" level when looking at the e-books, and are unable to extrapolate, such as further completing the subsequent "recording", "categorizing", and "applying".
In fact, based on my personal learning experience, no matter what method or strategy, when we browse the content of others, we have only completed the most basic "knowing or understanding", and there is still a certain distance from turning it into our own "methodology" and using it for ourselves.
Let's continue to give an example, for instance, in the e-book, we have already introduced and shared many indicators related to Bitcoin and Altcoins. Taking the Bitcoin indicators as an example, you may have already seen 20 indicators, but if you want to make these 20 indicators your own, then you should additionally complete the following new steps:
Recording: That is, by taking notes, record the indicators you have seen and believe will be helpful to you in a spreadsheet. And before recording, you need to plan the categorization of the spreadsheet according to your personal needs. If you are used to using Excel, you can divide it into categories such as indicator name, indicator address, current value, usage instructions, etc.
Categorizing: As the recording volume increases, you will find that different indicators can be further categorized, such as on-chain indicators, sentiment indicators, K-line indicators, and so on.
Applying: While continuously improving the above recording and categorization, the next thing you need to do is to try to apply these indicators in combination with actual (operational) practice, and then continuously optimize them in combination with your own position management. You can even try to further form your own "characteristic indicators" on this basis, and then "visualize" or "digitize" your characteristic indicators through mathematical induction or calculation.
The above is the theoretical text, and next I will make a draft demonstration table based on the above theory from my personal perspective, hoping to give you some ideas. As shown in the figure below.
In the above figure, based on my personal needs, I have additionally added three columns: data delay, whether triggered, and sell-off range. Then based on the numerical results of these columns, I can simply do some mathematical formulas, such as using a percentage method for positioning, setting different weights for different indicators, and different weights accounting for different percentages. Finally, for example, if the comprehensive result shows 0-30% range, it means you can buy the dips; 30%-80% range means you can dollar-cost average or do nothing; 80%-100% range means you can sell in batches.
After going through the steps from "reading - recording - categorizing - applying", I can gradually form my own "methodology" and use it for myself, and what I need to do next is to repeatedly cycle and improve the above 4 steps, making my "methodology" more effective, more in line with my position management, and better able to adapt to changes in market cycles.
Of course, the above are just my simple examples, and the table above is just a temporary draft made for demonstration purposes. What we are providing here is actually more of a method or idea. If you also agree with this learning approach, I suggest you organize it yourself according to your personal needs (don't leave a message asking me for a ready-made table, or simply ask me to do any table for you), as this will give you better learning and implementation results. Or, if you have better learning methods or suggestions, you are also welcome to leave a message to share with everyone.
