These past few days, there hasn't been much to discuss in the market, as it seems that most people are more focused on changes in macroeconomic factors, such as the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the earnings season in the US stock market. Of course, there have also been some related developments in the crypto space, such as:

- Reportedly, Coinbase has received a subpoena from the US CFTC, requesting customer data related to Polymarket.

- Grayscale is considering including some digital assets, including KAS, APT, ARB, TIA, and HBAR, in future investment products (don't just copy homework).

- Messari plans to lay off around 15% of its staff.

- The US Department of Justice plans to sue the operators of the cryptocurrency mixing services Blender and Sinbad.

- Pendle will launch a $6.1 million airdrop to vePENDLE holders.

- The US Senate Banking Committee will establish the first subcommittee dedicated to cryptocurrencies.

- Circle donated $1 million USDC to the Trump Inaugural Committee, and the committee is willing to accept stablecoin donations.

- Standard Chartered will provide cryptocurrency custody services in the EU.

- The Russian Ministry of Finance will sell the Bitcoin assets (1,032 BTC) seized from the Infraud hacking group.

- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's speech caused all quantum computing stocks to plummet (quantum computing won't be realized in the next 20 years).

- Animecoin has released the ANIME token economics, and HYPE stakers can receive airdrops.

- Since Binance announced the listing of ZEREBRO (an AI Meme on Solana) perps, the token has been continuously declining for more than 10 days (what else can be said, the retail investors are shedding tears).

It feels like there is endless news every day, and how to quickly find useful information from the massive amount of news is an issue that needs to be constantly improved. Personally, I don't recommend spending too much time scrolling through news every day. I prefer to read more in-depth long-form articles or informative documents. If you don't have much time for reading, you can also consider using ChatGPT or GroK2 to quickly extract the core content of documents.

1. On the issue of escaping the bull market top

A few days ago (January 10th), Boss Heng gave a sharing session on the topic of escaping the bull market top and buying the dips in the bear market. After the sharing, he also shared a 7,000-word summary document in the group and used Excel to summarize more than 40 commonly used top-escape/bottom-fishing indicators, showing that Boss Heng has done in-depth and thoughtful research on this matter, which is worth learning from by all of us.

Here are a few of Boss Heng's points (with some private details omitted):

- The market cannot have the majority of people making money, as each cycle is about finding new bagholders. The main capital will mostly only build positions at the very bottom, and distribute at the peak area to the lucky ones.

- The biggest positive news, the craziest times, are the most crazy distribution moments.

- The opportunity to make big money only exists in the liquidity-depleted bear market. The time to lose big money is in the bullish market full of greed.

- My cost is below $20,000, and I have already started to sell in batches according to the plan after reaching $** million, which is the exit plan formulated after completing the bear market buy-in.

- Currently, there are at most ** days left before the first possible (theoretically) peak, which means that we may face a massive correction of up to 50% at any time.

- When you least want to leave the bull market, that's when you should leave.

- When everyone has no confidence, you should believe in hope. When everyone is full of confidence, you should doubt the risk.

Recently, many people have been discussing the topic of escaping the bull market top, but I've found that on social media, many people's approaches or ideas are still just looking at the price. For example, some KOLs tell you not to sell, but to wait until Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or even $1 million before selling. However, do you know if those KOLs actually have any Bitcoin themselves? Or whether their average holding cost is the same as yours?

Any trading should be based on your own position management, and we have discussed the topic of position management many times before. Interested partners can directly search and review the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" (Volume 1 + Volume 2) published by Talk Li Talk Wai.

On the basis of reasonable position management (suitable for your own risk preference), we can then combine some on-chain indicators, K-line indicators, macroeconomic factors, news, or even some KOLs' personal views as auxiliary judgments. This is a relatively more rational investment operation approach. Of course, if you have already formed your own "methodology" (we will discuss the issue of methodology later), you can also directly ignore some of the influencing factors.

Otherwise, if you are just following the crowd or relying solely on your personal feelings to conduct trading operations, you are most likely to end up as cannon fodder (capital) for the market.

Here we can give a specific example, just take a look at the on-chain indicator of Long-term Holders. You can see that the long-term holders (including Smart Money) seem to be exiting, allowing the short-term holders who came in later to become the new bagholders. The red area has just touched the dotted line below, which seems to be a dangerous signal, indicating that we may be entering a new top area of the relative cycle.

So, when some KOLs are telling you that Bitcoin will reach $1 million this year, while certain indicators are hinting that we may be entering a relatively dangerous area, how should you act to maximize your own interests?

I cannot provide you with a specific answer, as everyone's position situation and risk preference are different. You need to find the answer that suits you best.

Some people can find greater earning opportunities at the most dangerous bull market top, while others get trapped and even lose money at the stage top. There is no one-size-fits-all standard answer in this market.

And different people have different views on the bull market top issue.

Some KOLs believe that the current market is just the beginning and starting point of the bull market, and I've even seen some KOLs say the bull market hasn't even started yet. I don't know what the basis of their judgment is. If their vision is already 20 years ahead, then I can agree that the current situation is just the starting point or that the bull market hasn't started yet. Otherwise, it would be misleading the general retail investors and newcomers. If we only look at the short-term cycle perspective, Bitcoin has already risen a lot from the relative bottom of $15,000, so how can it be said that the bull market hasn't started yet!

Of course, if you can also extend your vision to 10 or 20 years in the future, then the old saying in the previous article still applies: for the future, BTC is never too expensive to buy now, and you can always maintain a coin-based mindset.

But if your vision is only within a few months, weeks, or even a day, and you need to trade N times, then you need to customize a strict trading strategy based on your own position management, and think about what skills (such as your proficiency in K-line indicators, your access to first-hand information sources...) or strengths (such as your patience compared to most people, your sufficient time and energy for learning and research...) you have to ensure that you can outperform the majority of the "cannon fodder" in the market.

In short, there is no standard answer to when the bull market will top out. The articles shared by Li Lihui, the live sharing by Boss Heng a few days ago, or the views and execution strategies shared by other partners in the group, can only serve as a reference for you. In fact, the question you need to ask the most is not others, but yourself or your own position.

As for us, we have actually shared in the previous article of Li Lihui. I successfully executed Plan A in December last year and have already sold off 10% of my BTC position. Going forward, I just need to continue to strictly execute the original plan, and if it weren't for learning records and writing articles, I wouldn't even bother to look at any K-lines.

2. On the issue of learning effectiveness

In the previous article, we mentioned that in the whole of last year (2024), we spent most of our time sorting out the "methods", so we named the e-book collection of the previous year as "Blockchain Methodology" (originally wanted to call it "Crypto Methodology", but still felt that the word "Blockchain" is cooler).

But I've recently found a problem, which is that many people seem to be limited to the "reading" level when looking at the e-books, and are unable to make inferences, such as further completing the subsequent "recording", "categorizing", and "applying".

In fact, based on my personal learning experience, any method or strategy, when we browse the content of others, we have only completed the most basic "knowing or understanding", and there is still a certain distance from turning it into our own "methodology" and using it for ourselves.

Here's another example. In the e-book, we've already introduced and shared a lot of indicators related to Bitcoin and Altcoins. Take Bitcoin indicators as an example, you may have already seen 20 indicators, but if you want to make these 20 indicators your own, then you should complete the following new steps:

Recording: That is, by taking notes, record the indicators you have seen and think will be helpful to you into a spreadsheet. And before recording, you need to plan the categorization according to your personal needs. If you are used to using Excel, you can divide it into categories such as indicator name, indicator address, current value, usage instructions, etc.

Categorizing: As the recording volume increases, you will find that different indicators can be further categorized, such as on-chain indicators, sentiment indicators, K-line indicators, and so on.

Applying: While continuously improving the above recording and categorization, the next thing you need to do is to try to apply these indicators in combination with actual (operational) practice, and then continuously optimize them based on your own position management. You can even try to further form your own "featured indicators" on this basis, and then "visualize" or "digitize" your featured indicators through mathematical induction or calculation.

The above is the theoretical text. Next, I will demonstrate a draft spreadsheet from my personal perspective based on the above theory, hoping to give you some ideas.

In the above figure, based on my personal needs, I have added three additional columns: data delay, whether triggered, and sell-out range. Based on the numerical results of these columns, I can simply do some mathematical formulas, such as using percentages for positioning, setting different weights for different indicators, and different weights accounting for different percentages. Finally, for example, if the comprehensive result shows 0-30% range, it means you can buy the dips; 30%-80% range means you can do DCA or not operate; 80%-100% range means you can sell in batches.

With this process of "reading - recording - categorizing - applying", I can gradually form my own set of "methodology" and use it for myself, and what I need to do next is to repeatedly cycle and improve the above 4 steps, making my "methodology" more effective, more in line with my own position management, and better able to adapt to changes in market cycles.

Of course, the above are just my simple examples, and the spreadsheet is just a temporary draft made for demonstration purposes. What we are providing here is more of a method or idea. If you also agree with this learning approach, I suggest you organize it yourself according to your personal needs (don't leave a message to ask me for a ready-made spreadsheet, or simply ask me to do any spreadsheet for you), as this will give you better learning and implementation results. Or, if you have better learning methods or suggestions, you are also welcome to share them in the comments.