Important Events Summary This Week (1/12-1/18)

Recent US data releases show that inflation has not worsened, easing the market's previous pessimistic outlook that the Fed would only cut rates once or not at all by 2025. US stocks and cryptocurrencies have rebounded.

Trump is rumored to be issuing an official meme coin $TRUMP, and is reportedly planning to issue an executive order on his first day in office to prioritize cryptocurrencies as a national priority. He may support domestic crypto companies like Solana and Ripple, and repeal the SEC's accounting guidance SAB 12.

FTX's repayment plan officially took effect in January, with the first round of repayments expected to begin in February.

Taiwan's Ministry of Finance has released its regulations on cryptocurrency income taxation, but the unclear standards have sparked public discontent online, with many questioning the lack of coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Supervisory Commission.

• Bitcoin: Exchange reserves hit a 7-year low, and its correlation with Nasdaq has strengthened.
• Interest Rates: The Bank of Japan hinted at a rate hike in January, while the US may cut rates in June.
• US: The CFTC is scrutinizing on-chain betting, and new tax rules have taken effect.
• Taiwan: Taiwan's Ministry of Finance has released its cryptocurrency income taxation regulations, and unlicensed crypto businesses face up to 7 years in prison.
• South Korea: The implementation of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act.
• El Salvador: Plans to install Bitcoin nodes nationwide, and Tether's headquarters may relocate there.
• JPMorgan Chase: SOL and XRP ETFs are expected to be approved.
• Xiaohongshu: TikTok refugees are flocking in, meme coin hype is rising, and shareholders are considering selling their shares.
• Meta: A shareholder proposal suggests a 2% asset allocation to Bitcoin.
• AI Agent: A Franklin report highlights 10 focus areas, 6 upcoming DeFAI projects are summarized, and Virtuals has initiated a token buyback.

Changes in Trading Market Data This Week

Sentiment and Sectors

1. Fear and Greed Index

The market sentiment index for the week rose from the highest 62 (Greed) to the 75 (Greed) range, remaining in the (Greed) range throughout the week.

2. Sector Performance

Artemis data shows that the average gain for the blockchain sector this week was 7.5%, with the best performing sector being Store of Value, leading the market at 38.1%. The next best performers were Gen 1 Smart Contract (21.4%) and Staking Services (20.3%).

The gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum this week were 6.7% and 2.9% respectively. The three worst performing sectors were RWA (-3.1%), DePIN (-2.1%), and NFT Applications (-0.1%).

Market Liquidity

1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply

The total cryptocurrency market cap data shows that it increased from $3.35 trillion to $3.58 trillion. BTC dominance is 54.00%, and ETH dominance is 11.14%.

The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $190.29 billion to $191.14 billion.

2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges

Data shows that exchange assets have been in a net inflow state this week, indicating that investors may be preparing for upcoming market volatility. Inflows to exchanges are often seen as a sign that potential buying demand may increase in the short term.

However, compared to the peak single-day net inflow of $15.8 billion in December last year, the highest single-day net inflow this week was only $1.78 billion, significantly lower than the previous level. The lowest single-day net inflow occurred on January 12 (Sunday) at only $640 million, further reflecting the recent trend of reduced market liquidity.

3. Cryptocurrency Dynamics

In the cryptocurrency market this week, aixbt, ChainGPT, and XRP led with gains of +91.9%, +79.1%, and +44.4% respectively.

Blockchaincenter data shows that the current Altcoin Season Index is 55 (up +8 from last week).

The current bull market top signals are 0/30, with no top warning signals triggered yet.

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an inflow of $210 million.

2. Bitcoin Open Interest Exceeds $60 Billion

According to data, the total open interest across the network has exceeded $63.87 billion during the recent Bitcoin price increase, almost returning to the level seen in November last year.

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($101,000) is in the "Consider DCA" range.

5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained in negative territory for most of the time, indicating relatively weak demand in the US market, similar to the trend last week. This reflects the US market's sensitivity to downward price pressure and low demand.

Note: A positive premium may indicate stronger buying power of US investors compared to the global market, but based on historical data, if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is usually a buying opportunity.

6. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss

The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows signs of a recovery in net profit/loss for the Bitcoin market. As the price has risen, the realized profit/loss has gradually turned upward from its previous downward trend, indicating that investor sentiment has improved in the short term, and there may be momentum for re-entering the market.

7. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

On-chain data shows that the net position change of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTH) indicates that selling pressure continues to exist, but the magnitude has decreased compared to the concentrated sell-off at the end of last year. As Bitcoin price stabilizes at relatively high levels, some long-term holders appear to have realized their profits, and market liquidity is gradually balancing.

If the selling pressure further weakens in the coming weeks, long-term holders may start to accumulate positions again, which would provide positive sentiment support for the market and create favorable conditions for price appreciation.

Bitcoin's On-Chain Purchasing Power

According to on-chain data, the supply of Short-Term Holder (STH) of Bitcoin has continued to rise this week, indicating increased market trading activity and more capital flowing into Short-Term positions. Meanwhile, the supply of Long-Term Holder (LTH) has gradually declined, reflecting that some capital has chosen to realize profits.

This Week's Market Analysis News

1. Bitcoin Surges Above $102,000! Bloomberg: Trump May Issue Executive Order Prioritizing Cryptocurrency on Inauguration Day

Bloomberg reports that Trump plans to issue an executive order that will prioritize cryptocurrency as a national priority, and may consider establishing a national Bitcoin reserve and suspend any legal proceedings related to cryptocurrency. Inspired by this news, Bitcoin broke through $102,000 this morning. (Continue reading)

2. SEC Chair Gary Gensler: "7 Billion People Want to Trade Bitcoin", Responds to 11 Key Crypto Questions

SEC Chair Gary Gensler will resign on January 20th, and before his departure, he answered 11 key questions and regrets about cryptocurrency to the media. (Continue reading)

3. Taiwan's Crypto Taxation Sparks Outrage "Reporting Even Without Withdrawal", Finance Ministry and FSC Playing Their Own Game?

The report on Taiwan's cryptocurrency income tax regulations issued by the Ministry of Finance has sparked widespread public discontent, with unclear tax standards and chaos in policies between the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Supervisory Commission, prompting experts to call for a temporary suspension and the establishment of a dedicated law to protect the rights of the public. (Continue reading)

4. Taiwan's Crypto "Taxation Regulations" Unveiled, Tax Bureau Uncovers 130 Million in Tax Evasion from 2024 Token Sales

The Ministry of Finance has submitted a report on "Cryptocurrency Income Tax Regulations" to the Legislative Yuan, stipulating that virtual currency transactions must be subject to different tax treatments depending on whether they have "securities attributes", and the tax bureau has already uncovered nearly 130 million in unreported income, with over 34 million in back taxes and fines. (Continue reading)

5. Bank of Japan Hints at Rate Hike on 1/24, Can Bitcoin and US Stocks Escape the Yen Carry Trade Unwind This Time?

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino hinted today in a speech in Yokohama that the central bank may raise interest rates in this month's policy decision. If the BOJ officially raises rates this month, could it trigger a yen carry trade unwind similar to the one that caused a global stock and crypto market crash on August 5 last year? (Continue reading)

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Updates Around the World

1. Pump.fun Accused of Fraud! US Law Firm Burwick Law Initiates Class Action: Millions of Affected Users

2. US Government Proposes "Physical Return" of 120,000 Bitcoins Seized from Bitfinex Hack

In 2016, the Bitfinex exchange was hacked and 120,000 Bitcoins were stolen, becoming a historic event. Now, the US government has announced that it will return these seized Bitcoins to Bitfinex, sparking heated discussion in the cryptocurrency community with mixed views. (Continue reading)

3. South Korea's FSC Launches Discussion on "Virtual Asset User Protection Act" Phase 2 Regulatory Framework, What About Taiwan?

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea held the second Virtual Asset Committee meeting today, officially launching a comprehensive discussion on the second phase of the virtual asset regulatory framework, focusing on the implementation of the "Virtual Asset User Protection Act" and planning to draft legislation in the second half of this year. In addition, the discussion on "opening up corporate investment in cryptocurrencies", which is of particular concern to the Korean crypto community, was also initiated at the meeting. (Continue reading)

Market Highlights Next Week (Yen Interest Rate Decision)

1/20 (Monday)

• US: Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Market Closed)

1/21 (Tuesday)

• Hong Kong: December Resident Consumer Price Index CPI (YoY), Previous 1.40%

1/23 (Thursday)

• US: Initial Jobless Claims

1/24 (Friday)

• Japan: Interest Rate Decision, Previous 0.25%
• US: Manufacturing PMI, Previous 49.4
• US: Services PMI, Previous 56.8
• US: December Existing Home Sales, Previous 4.15M

Recommended Event

【​BlockTempo Meetup #156】Secrets to Web3 Job Hunting! From 0 to Web3: Building Your Blockchain Career (Registration Link)

Wondering how to build your career in the Web3 field? Want to join the Web3 industry but don't know how? These questions will be answered at next Thursday's BlockTempo Meetup! BlockTempo has invited seasoned Web3 industry executives and HR professionals to share how you can join the Web3 workforce.

Time: January 23, Thursday