On February 10, the famous Argentine economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger posted on social media that the current market is not as smooth as the previous bull market, so everything needs to start over. First, the Fed turned hawkish in December last year, then TRUMP caused huge volatility and liquidity loss, and Trump was more aggressive on tariffs than expected after taking office.
As for the crypto market, the most similar moments to the current situation are May 2021 and May 2024, but there are still some differences. Bitcoin is currently oscillating in a range, and Alex believes it will still rise after the oscillation ends. The supercycle theory is not flawed, but most Altcoins have not benefited from it continuously. Market participants can no longer fantasize about a "broad-based bull market", but need to be selective in their purchases.
BTC is stuck in a range, which I believe will ultimately rise. The supercycle theory is intact. Although it applies to the entire BTC and crypto, most old Altcoins have not benefited from it continuously. One should not expect a crazy liquidity wave to push up all the trash for a long time. Selectivity is required. SOL is doing well, but it has a lot of unlocking in the next two months, and the tax season should also drive a lot of selling, which is something investors need to worry about. Ethereum needs human intervention, increasing the value of the mainnet from L2, and more killer applications.
Altcoins look "already dead". Alex expects a new Altcoin season to emerge at some point, but it will be shorter and smaller than before. The positioning of Altcoins is currently very negative, and the sentiment is the same. Without clear catalysts, it is unclear when the Altcoin season will come, and it can also appear out of thin air.
From a broader perspective, the ideal time for new participants to enter a new market is when external conditions are good but internal sentiment is low. From a historical perspective, when internal participants' sentiment is low, it often indicates that the stage bottom has been reached. Tariffs will eventually lose their influence (this is already happening). Trump is clearly bullish on crypto assets, and the Fed will eventually turn dovish.
