Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In recent years, there was a popular joke saying that in this field, the final result for many people is "playing coins to CZ", where CZ refers to CZ (Changpeng Zhao, the founder of NB).
But this cycle, due to the booming narrative of MemeCoin, thousands of coins have emerged out of thin air, so for many people, "playing coins to CZ" seems to have become "playing coins to zero".
Entering the bull market and ultimately losing money in the bull market still seems to be the fate of many newbies.
1. On the issue of deposit and withdrawal
Recently, there are still more than ten friends who have left messages in the background to consult me on the issue of deposit and withdrawal, and some even have the impatience to ask me to directly exchange oil for them, hoping that I can help them. Just from this tip of the iceberg, the bull market is still there.
But at least half of the friends seem to still be coming for the goal of getting rich quickly. Sometimes after asking this question, they will continue to leave a message asking me to recommend coins that can make money now.
Even worse, after asking the question about deposit, they directly asked how to safely withdraw if they earn 100 million. I couldn't help but reply and curiously asked about the size of the capital, and the other party said they planned to invest 5,000 RMB, so I fell silent... because I don't know what to say, I can only bless this warrior. As a certain big shot once said: Dreams should be had, who knows if they will come true?
The issue of deposit and withdrawal is actually very sensitive, so I usually don't respond to most of these background messages.
First of all, the topic of deposit and withdrawal is illegal or even illegal in China, so I generally avoid discussing it, let alone provide any services in this regard, and I don't even want to talk about this topic with anyone.
Secondly, I believe I mentioned in an earlier article that I have a clear proportion of my real-world assets and on-chain assets, and the funds on the chain will always remain on the chain. I haven't done anything in this area in the past few years, so I don't understand and don't want to understand the current deposit and withdrawal practices.
As for new people entering the market, I can only simply remind you: be sure to go through the platform, don't randomly add merchants for private transactions, and don't randomly provide merchants with personal privacy or sensitive information.
That's enough on this topic. Interested partners can search for relevant materials or tutorials on YouTube.
2. On sentiment and obligation
The other day, I saw a post by the big V Yuexian saying: Please do not help those who borrow money to speculate in coins, and then suffer losses, have their funds stolen or be scammed. As shown in the image below.
As for why Yuexian said this, perhaps only those who have been KOLs or bloggers, or have had relevant experiences, can understand.
Over the years, I have actually seen too many people lose money, and some have even ended up with their families broken up because of this.
Especially since I started writing articles publicly, I have faced more and more situations of people losing money, such as:
- Those who believed in strangers who could make them rich, and fell into a pig-slaughtering scam (such as being induced to participate in trading on a wild chicken exchange) and lost all their principal, leaving messages asking me what to do and if I can help them get their money back.
- Those who believed in the shilling of KOLs and directly went "All In" on some Altcoins or on-chain memes (even crypto honeypots), and ended up with their investments halved, knees broken, ankles broken, or even zeroed out, leaving messages asking me what to do and if there is a quick way to make back the losses.
- Those who frequently did wave trading and frequently changed positions, causing their position funds to be halved or even severely shrunk, leaving messages asking me how to improve or asking me to recommend a 10x coin to help them turn the situation around.
- Those who used high leverage and played contracts, and then had their positions liquidated, leaving messages asking me how to turn the situation around and if there are any contract trading secrets I can teach them.
- Those who lost money on projects mentioned in my historical articles (note: the projects mentioned in the 2023 article analysis series alone are estimated to be over 1,000), leaving messages to me for rights protection and compensation claims (if following this logic, then CoinMarketCap has mentioned tens of thousands of projects, so everyone should go find BN for compensation).
- And so on...
I think the saying "If there is no time dimension, then we are all gamblers" is very well said.
I have always been making various well-intentioned reminders from the very beginning of content output, such as:
For newcomers, when entering this field, you must remember two basic investment principles: one is to preserve the principal, and the other is not to touch what you don't understand.
The crypto field is a very high-risk field, you need to have risk awareness, and if you want to participate in investment, you must do a good job of position management, with at least 50% of the position in BTC.
But many people have lost the money they should have lost, no matter how many times you say it, it's useless, and it may even bring some unwarranted blame or accusation from others.
Yesterday (2.12), I also saw a blogger with tens of thousands of followers posting a chat record with his followers on X, and I found the blogger's tone quite interesting. As shown in the image below.
When I saw him use the word "Diao Mao", I almost laughed at the blogger's humorous tone. But I also thought about it, sometimes being straightforward is not a bad thing. Of course, I also believe that the blogger's "Diao Mao" is just a verbal habit, just like many people say "Wo Cao" in daily speech, but this does not mean any malice.
Learning to effectively refuse is really an art.
Everyone likes to hear nice things, but if you think about it seriously, maybe we should cherish those who call us "Diao Mao", those who can directly point out our shortcomings or problems. At least this kind of person will not deceive you into a pig-slaughtering scam, and basically they are just telling you the truth.
In contrast, we should try to stay away from those who call you "family" every day, because this "family" of yours may just be a product that can be bought for 9.9 yuan or even a pig waiting to be slaughtered in their eyes.
The above is just my little feeling after seeing the blogger's chat record, because I personally don't have any special verbal habits, so I naturally won't call others "Diao Mao", let alone bring "family" to do pig-slaughtering scams. Personally, I prefer to call others "partners".
Because the word "partner" represents equality, friendliness, companionship, and refers to learning, progressing, and growing together with a group of people who share the same hobbies (and are on the same frequency).
Even my industry peers or competitors, I like to call them "industry partners".
However, with the continuous increase in the number of people paying attention, sometimes you may treat the other party as a partner, but the other party may want to treat you as a fool or a sucker, so when I encounter people with different frequencies, I will also directly block them in the background, which is good for both of us. For example, recently I encountered a very ridiculous thing:
Someone left a message in the background saying that he was from a certain project (a project I had never heard of), asking if I would accept advertising, I said I would not accept any advertising, then the other party said it didn't matter, he just wanted to make a friend, and then asked me to add his TG, I said I don't usually add people on TG, then he said he would just send me the project information by email so I could take a look and give some opinions, and then... when I opened the email and took a look, the attachment was in a format that I was not familiar with, and I guess that if I dared to click or download it, my computer would most likely be infected.
In any case, there are indeed many opportunities to make money, even to get rich, in this field, but these are not prepared for the majority of ordinary people, in fact, any field is like this. Don't always think about how to make money if you make money, before trying to make money, you must consider in advance what to do if you lose money, and what countermeasures to take. Don't easily entrust your dream of making money to others (especially strangers), and don't even entrust your hope of recouping your losses or turning the situation around to others.
You are blessed if others help you, but they are not obliged to.
3. Next, let's take a look at what else has been worth paying attention to or interesting in the past two days:
- Has CZ finally given in and decided to launch a MemeCoin as well?
This morning, I saw some partners in the group discussing this issue, and I also went to take a look, and found that CZ had responded to the community's suggestion to create a MemeCoin with his pet dog, saying that it was an interesting idea and that he would consider it for a day or two as usual. As shown in the image below.
Wow, as soon as this news came out, thousands of related MemeCoin suddenly popped up on the chain, basically all related to CZ/BNB, with all kinds of dog head Memes as far as the eye can see. As shown in the image below.
As of the writing of this article, the price of BNB has also risen to over $700, it seems that many people have already prepared their funds and are now watching CZ's new tweets, ready to rush in, it seems they want to have a public PvP showdown, is the "coin to zero" now going to become the "coin to CZ"?
- The US released data last night (Beijing time February 12), with CPI inflation rising 0.5% in one month, the largest increase since August 2023.
Additionally, from a year-on-year perspective, the US CPI in January increased by 3%, higher than the expected 2.9%, the largest increase since June 2024. This has a relatively large impact on the expectation of rate cuts, originally expected to be as late as September this year, but market analysts have now pushed the expectation of rate cuts to December.
However, this result does not seem to have caused too much volatility in the crypto market yesterday and today, although immediately after the news was released last night, Bitcoin dropped from around $96,500 to around $94,000, but it has basically recovered this morning. The spot price has recovered, but this process will not affect the liquidation, those who were supposed to be liquidated will still be liquidated, according to on-chain data statistics, in the past 12 hours alone, there has been $245 million in liquidation, of which $124 million in long positions and $121 million in short positions.
Going back to the issue of rate cuts, although the short-term impact seems to be not too big, looking at this expectation, the US dollar will certainly continue to strengthen this year, and from a macro perspective, this is not favorable for crypto risk assets in general. Moreover, the US will also release PPI data tonight, as shown in the image below.
In addition, the market is currently most concerned about the potential tariff policy of Trump, analysts have calculated that since the trade war began, the one-year inflation expectation has soared, as shown in the image below, which may also lead to the inflation problem becoming more serious.
Of course, we don't need to be too pessimistic about this data, after all, the housing CPI (shelter CPI) accounts for 30% of the overall increase, and the shelter data is generally lagging by 12 months, from this perspective, the actual inflation may be a bit more moderate than what we see. Moreover, the US may have chosen to digest the impact of the potential tariff policy in advance, which may not necessarily be a bad thing for the market. Additionally, from the actual performance of Bitcoin in the past two days, there also seems to be some asymmetric performance, perhaps (note, this is just a personal guess) we will soon welcome a new round of Bitcoin's rise, so seize the last possible opportunity.
In any case, now not only the crypto market, but other financial markets are also becoming more volatile under the multi-dimensional influence of concepts like DeepSeek, trade wars, rate cut expectations, and inflation expectations. As for the crypto market, from a larger macro perspective, the remaining imagination space this year may be the strategic reserve of Bitcoin and the ETF (including the staking part) of Altcoins.
In terms of national strategic reserves, as of February 13, 27 states in the US have proposed bills related to Bitcoin reserves, as shown in the image below. From a long-term perspective, it seems that the US turning Bitcoin reserves into a kind of "decentralized US Treasury bond" is a relatively high probability event.
As for Altcoin ETFs, as mentioned in yesterday's article (February 12), in addition to LTC, XRP, SOL, Doge, etc. that may be approved today, some institutions also seem to be actively applying and promoting proposals for Ethereum ETFs with staking.
- Coinbase's profits significantly exceeded expectations
Someone has done some statistics, based on Coinbase's (COIN) Q4 earnings, the EPS (Earnings Per Share) was $6.07, an increase of 432% over the fourth quarter of 2023, and they are expected to achieve $65 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024 (note: Coinbase's revenue in fiscal year 2021 was $7.8 billion). As shown in the image below.
So why do we need to pay attention to Coinbase?
There are two core points:
One is that Coinbase represents the investment direction of US investors.
The other is that as a major custodian of crypto assets for various institutions, we can even indirectly infer the progress of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve fund by following its growth changes (for example, once the national Bitcoin reserve fund is established, it will inevitably accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions, and Coinbase as a compliant exchange in the US is likely to become the main platform for these institutions to trade and custody on a large scale).
That's all for today. Last year, we went through a lot of methodological content, all of which have been summarized in the e-books "Blockchain Methodology" (Volume 1 + Volume 2), which are quite suitable for reviewing and summarizing when the market is boring. Readers with patience can consider reviewing and reading more content in the e-books, click here to enter the portal>>
