• Bernstein analysts predict that crypto regulation is imminent and may come sooner than expected.
• They believe that Trump's re-election will tilt the balance towards policies supporting Bit.

Bernstein analysts state that the likelihood of new Bit regulations being introduced by 2025 has soared to 70%.

"Significant reforms are underway," the research firm's analysts wrote in the report, "these reforms are clearly tilted towards supporting Bit and could bring historic tailwinds for the entire industry."

Bernstein points out that factors such as President Trump, a Republican majority in the Senate, Bit-friendly politicians leading key committees, and a series of industry-friendly appointments have paved the way for new Bit regulations.

In the report, Bernstein mentioned several bills aimed at addressing the crypto industry's long-standing demands for regulatory clarity.

Here are 10 bills that Bernstein believes could have an impact, which are currently progressing through the Washington, D.C. political system.

Payment Stablecoin Act

Bernstein estimates a 70% likelihood of the Payment Stablecoin Act being passed.

The bill is based on the Payment Stablecoin Transparency Act first introduced by former Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry in 2023.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Payment Stablecoin Act in 2024, which includes many of the same provisions as the previous bill.

The bill prohibits algorithmic stablecoins and requires stablecoins to be issued by the U.S. and fully backed 1:1 by U.S. Treasuries, cash, and central bank reserves.

GENIUS Act

The Guidance and Enabling New Uses of Innovative Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act is the latest crypto-related legislation.

"We believe there is a 70% chance this bill will pass in the upcoming congressional session," Bernstein wrote in the report.

This bipartisan bill was introduced in February by Senators Cynthia Lummis, Bill Hagerty, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Tim Scott.

The bill requires stablecoins to have adequate reserves, similar to the Payment Stablecoin Act, but with more flexible reserve requirements, including a mandate to research algorithmic stablecoins.

Senator Elizabeth Warren this week stated that the bill lacks sufficient strength in anti-money laundering and consumer protection, and therefore she will not support it.

FIT21 Act

The Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century (FIT21) passed the House in May and is currently under consideration in the Senate.

The bill was introduced by Republican Congressman Glenn Thompson in 2023 and has received bipartisan support.

The bill aims to clarify the roles and rules of the SEC and CFTC in Bit regulation.

While Bernstein listed it as a "bill to watch," the analysts did not provide a specific probability prediction for its passage.

Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA)

Bernstein considers another "bill to watch" to be the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA).

The bill was first introduced by Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand in 2022 and reintroduced in 2023.

Bernstein described it as "the most comprehensive regulatory bill aimed at integrating digital assets more broadly into the U.S. financial infrastructure" and predicted a 50% chance of it passing.

However, bills introduced in the 118th Congress are considered expired and must be reintroduced. As of now, RFIA has not been reintroduced in the 119th Congress.

Stablecoin Transparency Act

Senator Bill Hagerty first introduced the Stablecoin Transparency Act in 2022 and reintroduced it early in the 119th Congress.

The bill requires stablecoins to be backed by fiat currency, Treasuries, or fully collateralized repurchase agreements, and mandates monthly reserve disclosures by issuers.

Bernstein estimates a 30% chance of this bill passing.

Blockchain Technology for the 21st Century Act

Senators Roger Wicker and Cynthia Lummis first introduced the Blockchain Technology for the 21st Century Act in 2022.

The bill aims to "develop a national strategy for Bit research and development" and help identify areas where the U.S. government can drive its adoption.

Although the bill has not been reintroduced in the current Congress, Bernstein still believes there is a 10% chance of it passing.

Preventing Illicit Finance through Partnerships Act

Hagerty and Lummis introduced this bill in 2024, which aims to establish a pilot program to facilitate information sharing between the private sector and the U.S. Department of Justice, FinCEN, and the Department of Homeland Security.

Hagerty stated, "By promoting cooperation and information sharing, this bill will ensure all relevant parties work together to identify and combat bad actors."

Bernstein predicts a 10% chance of this bill passing.

Keeping American Innovation Act

This bill, introduced by Patrick McHenry in 2023, aims to amend the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act's provisions related to the definitions and reporting requirements for brokers and digital assets.

Bernstein estimates a 10% chance of this bill passing.

BITCOIN Act

Lummis also introduced the Broader Integration of Bit and Enabling National Investment in Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Technology (BITCOIN) Act.

The bill was introduced in July 2024 and aims to establish a strategic Bit reserve as an additional store of value to strengthen the U.S. balance sheet.

After Trump's victory on November 5th, Lummis expressed support, tweeting, "We will establish a strategic Bit reserve."

Bernstein estimates a 5% chance of this bill passing, but did not specify why the chances remain slim, despite Trump's crypto executive order issued in late January calling for an assessment of digital asset reserves.

Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act

Senator Elizabeth Warren introduced the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act in 2023.

The bill aims to apply existing anti-money laundering (AML) requirements to digital asset providers and related service providers, and attempts to classify most crypto platforms and projects as financial institutions.

Warren reportedly faced difficulties finding co-sponsors for the bill, and it has not been reintroduced in the current Congress.

Bernstein estimates a 5% chance of this bill passing.