The cryptocurrency market has been relatively calm recently, lacking new market catalysts. Affected by the news that MSTR intends to purchase more BTC, BTC returned to an upward channel in the middle of last week and reached a high of $99,475 on the evening of the 21st, with a weekly high of 6.5%. However, a black swan event subsequently occurred, with Bybit being hacked and losing over $1.46 billion worth of ETH, which is the largest cryptocurrency security incident to date. The market's panic sentiment exacerbated the large number of long positions being liquidated on Bybit, and the market stabilized after the decline.
Affected by US tech stocks, the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower, while the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar, indicating a clear risk-averse sentiment in the market. BTC briefly fell below $89,000 and is currently priced at $89,400 (the above data is from the Binance spot market).
Market Analysis
Tech stocks collectively weakened, and the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar, triggering a risk-averse sentiment in the market
Driven by the news that "Microsoft has canceled its data center leasing plan", Wall Street has been discussing the prospects of AI investments. Against the backdrop of unresolved tariff issues, most large-tech stocks have collectively weakened, with Nvidia falling more than 3%, Tesla and Meta falling more than 2%, Amazon and Microsoft falling more than 1%, and only Apple seeing a slight increase. At the close, the S&P 500 index fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08%.
Due to the market's expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, the yen has risen by nearly 6% in six weeks, with the current USD/JPY exchange rate at 149.38, and it is expected to challenge the recent three-month high of 148.84. The market's risk aversion sentiment has soared, and BTC briefly fell below $89,000 on the 25th, with the market fear and greed index at "extreme fear". International gold prices have hit a new all-time high, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.49% and reaching $2,974 before the US stock market opened.
ETH faces significant downward pressure, and continued decline may lead to a prolonged weakness in the altcoin market
The Bybit hacker still holds a portion of ETH, and the market generally believes that this asset will have an impact on the price of ETH. At the same time, it was previously expected that Bybit would purchase a large amount of ETH in the open market, but this assumption has not materialized. Affected by this information, ETH's leveraged positions have decreased, and the 24-hour ETH futures open interest has decreased significantly. Currently, ETH is priced at $2,394, and is about to break through the core support level. The strength of the yen has also exacerbated the price volatility of ETH. If ETH continues to decline, it may trigger a chain reaction in the entire altcoin market.
Market Hotspots
Nvidia's earnings report on Thursday and the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index are market focuses
The market is eagerly awaiting Nvidia's earnings report to be released this Thursday, as its financial report and performance outlook have significant potential implications for the entire AI industry chain.
At the same time, the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to be released this Friday is also a market focus. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that the Fed should remain "cautious" amid policy adjustments, and he still believes that interest rates will decline after a period of uncertainty, and that the impact of rising consumer inflation expectations is not significant, and he is satisfied with the Fed's progress towards its 2% inflation target.
Crypto regulation is improving, with OKX Seychelles reaching a settlement with the US Department of Justice
On the 22nd, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, stated that the US SEC has agreed to withdraw its lawsuit against Coinbase and not bring it up again, and Coinbase has paid $50 million in legal fees for this case. On the 25th, one of OKX's subsidiaries, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd. (OKX Seychelles), announced that it had reached a settlement with the US Department of Justice regarding an investigation, admitting that the company had conducted money transfer business in the US without a license. To reach this settlement, the company agreed to pay a fine of $84 million and forfeit approximately $421 million in revenue obtained from US customers during that period.
The market generally believes that crypto regulation has gradually improved since the Trump administration. According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, given the SEC's recent focus on staking services, the agency may re-examine the lawsuit it filed against ConsenSys last year regarding its MetaMask staking service. In addition, the SEC's previous accusation that ConsenSys was engaged in unregistered brokerage business has been withdrawn, similar to the accusation that was dismissed in the Coinbase lawsuit.
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