Important Events of the Week (2/23-3/1)
In the week following the Bybit exchange hack, the theft of $1.47 billion worth of ETH temporarily sparked a community bank run, but Bybit successfully processed user withdrawals and restored its ETH reserves with the help of various parties. In the subsequent report released by Bybit, the root cause was attributed to a vulnerability in the infrastructure of the multi-signature cryptocurrency wallet Safe, once again raising public concerns about asset security.
Recommended Reading: Bybit CEO Recounts 72 Hours of Life and Death: The CFO Trembled and Said the Loss was 410,000 ETH...
The US SEC's pressure on the cryptocurrency industry has continued to ease, with several investigations concluded this week. These include: determining that Meme coins are not securities, temporarily suspending the lawsuit against Justin Sun and TRON, or reaching a settlement, the SEC's first classification of Bitcoin (BTC) as a "digital commodity", ending investigations into Uniswap and Opensea, and discussing ETF collateralization and DeFi regulation with Fidelity and MITRE.
- Bitcoin: On Friday, it briefly fell below $78,000, the lowest since mid-November last year. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a record single-day net outflow of $937.9 million, and investors who entered the market since November last year have lost about $1.3 billion. Is it a good time to buy the dips now? These six indicators can help you determine the right time to buy at a bargain.
- Interest Rates: The Atlanta Fed president expects two rate cuts by 2025, but the forecast is uncertain. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.22%, a new low for the year.
- Trump Tariff Policy: On 3/4, 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico as scheduled, and an additional 10% tariff (raised to 20%) will be imposed on China. Earlier, the EU was also named as the next target, exacerbating market uncertainty.
- MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy's market value premium has dropped from 3.4 last November to 1.6. Experts analyze that if the BTC price fails to rebound, its future financing path may become more difficult.
Changes in the Trading Market Data This Week
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator plummeted from 50 (neutral) to the lowest 10 (extreme fear) before rebounding, remaining in the (neutral), (fear), and (extreme fear) range throughout the week.
2. Sector Performance
Artemis data shows that the average decline of blockchain sector this week was -8.7%. The top three performing sectors were Stablecoin (+0.0%), Data Availability (+0.0%), and File Storage (-1.7%).
The weekly gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum were -12.4% and -13.7% respectively. The worst performing sectors were Staking (-14.3%), Memecoin (-13.2%), and Oracle (-12.6%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
This week, the total cryptocurrency market cap shows a decrease from $3.22 trillion to $2.83 trillion. BTC dominance is 59.02%, and ETH dominance is 9.82%.
The total Stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, decreased from $207.08 billion to $205.24 billion this week.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
The data shows that the net inflow trend of Stablecoins on exchanges has continued to weaken this week, and market participants have taken a cautious stance on entering the market, with a more conservative capital deployment. Although Stablecoin inflows are generally seen as a signal of increased market buying power, the current inflow scale is significantly lower than the peak last year.
Compared to the daily peak net inflow of $15.4 billion in December last year, the highest daily net inflow this week was only around -$710 million, indicating a significant decrease in market activity. Particularly on February 23, the net inflow to exchanges was negative, reaching -$1.8 billion, lacking strong capital momentum in the short term, and the capital flow has further slowed down.
3. Cryptocurrency Dynamics
In the cryptocurrency market this week, MyShell, KAITO, and Vana led with gains of +54%, +46.3%, and +34% respectively.
According to CMC data, the current Altcoin Season Index is 23 (up -5 from last week).
The current Bull Market Peak Signals are 0/30, and no exit signals have been triggered yet.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Massive Outflow from Bitcoin Spot ETFs
This week, Bitcoin ETF funds saw a massive outflow of $2.279 billion.
2. Bitcoin Open Interest Drops Back to $50 Billion
According to data, the total open interest has fallen back to $50.2 billion, roughly returning to the level seen in early November last year.
3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($82,000) is in the "Consider Buying" range.
4. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has shown a significant decline after February 23-25, turning negative, indicating some selling pressure in the US market during that period.
Note: A positive premium usually indicates stronger buying power from US investors compared to the global market, but if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is often considered a buying opportunity.
5. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that market sentiment continues to fluctuate. Recently, Bitcoin has been consolidating around $80,000, and the realized net profit has fallen significantly from the peak in December last year, gradually approaching the zero line, indicating an increase in profit-taking in the market.
This week, the Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained in the range of $100-300 million, further declining from the peak in early January, indicating a more cautious sentiment among market investors. Although the selling pressure has eased, the current profit-taking scale is still declining, and the potential buying momentum has not yet fully accumulated, so the changes in capital flows still need to be closely monitored in the future.
6. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
According to on-chain data, there have been significant changes in the positions of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTH) this week, particularly from February 23 to 24, when LTHs began to replenish their positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Compared to the previous selling pressure, the selling pressure from LTHs has almost disappeared, and there has been no large-scale sell-off, but rather an increase in buying momentum, which may be a signal that the future stability of the market is strengthening and could provide potential support for Bitcoin prices.
7. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power
According to on-chain data, the supply of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders (STH) has continued to rise, indicating increased market activity. The trend of capital inflows into short-term trading positions has been obvious recently, and the supply of STHs has grown significantly in the past few weeks, indicating a significant increase in the participation of short-term traders in the market.
At the same time, the supply of Long-Term Holders (LTH) has been continuously declining since October last year, as some long-term holders have chosen to realize profits at high prices, providing liquidity to the market but also increasing selling pressure. Going forward, it will be necessary to pay attention to changes in capital flows and holding structure, especially whether short-term holders will continue to drive market sentiment or bring correction risks due to profit-taking.
This Week's Market Analysis News
1. Bitcoin falls below $80,000 - time to buy the dips? Six indicators to help you identify the bottom
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 this morning, hitting its lowest level since mid-November last year. This article will summarize several commonly used technical indicators to help readers determine if Bitcoin has reached the bottom. (Continue reading)
2. Buffett's latest shareholder letter makes no mention of cryptocurrency! Cash reserves hit a new high, but he still prefers to invest in stocks
In his latest shareholder letter, Buffett reviewed Berkshire Hathaway's 2024 performance, emphasizing that despite the company's $334.2 billion in cash reserves, the majority of its funds will still be invested in stocks, and he is optimistic about the long-term development of the US economy. However, the much-discussed topics of AI and Altcoins were not mentioned. (Continue reading)
3. Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin could plummet to $70,000, hedge funds taking profits on the $IBIT ETF as the trigger
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will crash to $70,000 in Q1 or early Q2, and said that hedge funds holding the Blackrock Bitcoin Spot ETF $IBIT are preparing to take profits, which will be one of the triggers for a sharp Bitcoin correction in the short term. (Continue reading)
4. Found the reason for the crypto crash? A large amount of funds "fled to US bonds for hedging" and traders' bets soared
The US bond market has seen significant volatility recently, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both falling to their lowest levels this year. As US economic data shows signs of instability, and concerns about inflation and recession intensify, market risk aversion has increased, with a large amount of funds flowing into US Treasuries, and traders' bets have also soared accordingly. (Continue reading)
5. Cobo's Discus Fish: If the US fails to establish Bitcoin reserves this year, the current bull market may be over...
Discus Fish, the founder of the world's largest mining pool f2pool and the crypto asset custodian Cobo, said yesterday (25th) that in the current overall market downturn, the next growth opportunity may come from the US establishing Bitcoin reserves, and if the US ultimately fails to pass this proposal, the bull market may also come to an end. (Continue reading)
6. Bitcoin spot ETFs see largest ever daily outflow of $938 million! Experts: Severely affected by macroeconomics, further downside risks
The crypto market crashed badly this week, with Bitcoin plunging below $87,000 on the 25th, hitting a new low since November last year. During this period, the 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $937.9 million on the 25th, the largest single-day net outflow on record. Experts warn that the market is being severely affected by the overall economic situation and may face further downside. (Continue reading)
Crypto Regulatory Updates
1. SEC Update》Meets with Fidelity and MITRE to discuss "ETF staking" and DeFi regulation
2. Citadel Securities, Wall Street's largest market maker, plans to enter the crypto market, in response to crypto-friendly regulations under the Trump administration
Citadel Securities, one of the world's largest market makers, is planning to enter the Altcoin market, signaling that traditional financial institutions are gradually adapting to digital assets and paving the way for future market developments. (Continue reading)
3. SEC confirms receipt of Grayscale's application, seeking to open Ethereum spot ETF with staking function, ETH/BTC rebounds
Grayscale has applied to provide a staking function for its Ethereum spot ETF, which, if approved, will bring a new revenue model for investors. However, the SEC's final decision remains uncertain. (Continue reading)
Next Week's Market Focus
3/5 (Wednesday)
- US: Change in Non-farm Payrolls for Feb, forecast 183K, prior 183K
US: Feb Services PMI, forecast 52.9, prior 49.7
US: Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.8, prior 53.0
US: Feb Crude Oil Inventories, prior -2.332M
3/6 (Thursday)
- Eurozone: Mar Deposit Facility Rate, forecast 2.75%, prior 2.90%
- US: Initial Jobless Claims for Mar, prior 242K
- Eurozone: ECB Press Conference
3/7 (Friday)
- US: Feb Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), forecast 0.3%, prior 0.5%
- US: Feb Non-farm Payrolls, forecast 133K, prior 143K
- US: Feb Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.0%, prior 4.0%
3/8 (Saturday)
- US: Fed Monetary Policy Report
- US: Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Hong Kong Blockchain "Top 30 Most Influential" List Released
Hong Kong List (Link)
Recommended Interview Video
1. [Subtitled] Web3 Founder Gavin Wood: Meme coins are trash! Is Ethereum politics too dark?
Recommended Event
1. Bitcoin National Reserve! Taiwan too? 2025 2nd "Innovation and Derivative Products Regulatory Strategy Forum"
Date: 3/13 (Thu) (Event Link)
