Author: @ruiixyz; Compiled by: Bai Hua Blockchain
Macroeconomic policies determine capital allocation in the long run, while the liquidity of the crypto market circulates between casino-style trading, , and emerging value-oriented investments, despite constant market volatility.
1. Tired of market fluctuations, what should we focus on?
1) Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long run
2) Market trends: Oscillating between casino-style trading, yield, and value investment
3) Blockchain: When high TPS (transaction processing speed) becomes the standard configuration, where is the focus of competition?
4) Project selection: Only look at new and interesting projects
Innovation in internet infrastructure
Bridging Web2 and Web3
Truly enabling the role of
Serving the entry of traditional finance (TradFi)
Behaving like a "non-crypto" enterprise
2. Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long run
1) Impact of national reserves? The national reserve plan proposed by Trump lacks congressional approval and may be overturned by the next administration. Since the US already holds assets, the direct market impact of this policy is limited, as the government is more likely to allocate from existing assets rather than directly purchasing from the market. However, this move may have far-reaching implications for corporate and international strategies.
2) Crypto reserves may dilute the value of ? If is mixed into other crypto asset reserves, it may weaken its market position. If the crypto reserve is positioned as a backing for the US dollar (which is not desirable), it will raise concerns about the stability of the dollar and further push up interest rates. Currently, Trump's policy seems to be more driven by personal interests.
3) Broader market and more types of products
The is under development, and if approved, it will boost the staking market
The likelihood of a <$SOL ETF> being launched this year is very high, and more and more "Solana version MicroStrategy" are emerging, driving staking interest
Chinese investors' attention to is rising (but there is still great uncertainty), and although the regulatory environment is still unclear, compliant custodian institutions have started to layout
Despite the constant short-term market volatility, capital and talent will gradually flow into the market as macroeconomic policies evolve.
3. Market: Oscillating between casino, yield, and value
The current market is mainly dominated by two types of traders:
Casino gamblers - Chasing the extreme returns of 1000x leverage in PvP gaming.
Yield farmers - Seeking stable, low-risk returns. Apart from these, traders in between contribute less trading volume, but this may change over time.
1) The first type: Gamblers - "Give us a fair casino!"
The meme coins in the ecosystem once had strong product-market fit (PMF), but a series of "rug pulls", including Trump, Melania, and Libra, along with insider trading, have severely damaged market liquidity, and more importantly, undermined the fairness of the casino. Now, decentralized exchanges (DEXes) are trying to restore trust through sniper sorting, Dutch auctions, and mandatory community airdrops, hoping to re-attract trading volume when the macroeconomic environment changes.
2) The second type: Whales - "Earn our trust through safety and time"
Low-risk yield farming players won't risk zeroing out for an extra 10% APY.
Currently, Ethereum still leads in TVL (Total Value Locked) and security history, while other chains are also working hard to catch up. Yield sources include DEX token incentives, lending fees, hedging, short-term Treasuries (T-bills), etc., each with different risk levels. The best projects are striving to strike a subtle balance between yield and risk, and to convince LPs (liquidity providers) of this.
3) The third type: Value investors - "Emerging under a clearer regulatory framework"
Whether on-chain assets (such as Web2 enterprise listings, real-world assets) can thrive depends on regulatory clarity. Once clear regulatory rules are in place, value investing will truly take shape - when revenue buybacks are no longer trivial, matching market cap, and tokens have actual utility, the chain can attract true value investors.
4. Blockchain: When high TPS becomes the standard
1) : From perfect PMF to broader political and market moats
The biggest moat of is its excellent PMF, and it is now expanding to political and broader competitive advantages.
Price determines market perception - The SIMD-0228 proposal aims to long-term support the price by linking the staking rate to token issuance. Imagine: 2) → More staking → Lower token issuance → Stronger price stability.
The DEXes in the ecosystem are solving the problems of liquidity depletion and trust, while perpetual contract platforms are using Rollup/Temporary Rollup to improve performance (e.g., , ). Meanwhile, is also integrating perpetual contract trading.
provides yield-generating US commercial checking accounts.
provides lower-cost fiat withdrawal solutions than Coinbase.
is building top-tier stablecoin infrastructure.
Challenges faced:
Maintaining a fair trading environment (casino-like ecosystem)
Enhancing DeFi liquidity and stability
Ensuring network security and stability to attract institutional adoption
3) : The core moat is its killer app
The biggest moat of is its powerful core application (killer app).
Currently, has officially launched, and the network revenue comes not only from platform fees and auction fees, but also from transaction fees. Although this change is not yet fully reflected in the token price, it unlocks new use cases for $ (gas fees, lending, staking, and yield mechanisms). In addition, high-market-cap native assets (such as spot ) have finally joined the ecosystem.
Challenges faced:
Maintaining an open ecosystem is difficult - its native DEX and perpetual contract platform directly compete, affecting ecosystem interoperability.
Security risks - Bybit's multi-sig mechanism with 4 signers was still rugged, while only has 2 signers, posing potential security vulnerabilities.
4) : The moat is the combination of Hyper-EVM and an open ecosystem
The moat of lies in the combination of Hyper-EVM and an open ecosystem.
The testnet has shown steady growth, with a peak TPS of 120 and no significant performance degradation. Although the ecosystem is still in the early stages, maintaining openness is crucial for its development, to avoid the "king-maker effect" of over-centralization in other ecosystems. Currently, the community is achieving organic growth through projects like Molandak NFTs.
Future outlook: Focus on the potential of killer apps in areas like DeFi, consumer applications, AI, and payments.
5. Project Selection: Only Look at New and Interesting
1) Innovation in internet infrastructure
The scalability of blockchains often requires sacrificing decentralization and security, and is developing a compatible cross-chain connection framework to optimize on-chain data flow.
Their solution can pre-filter incoming transactions before they reach the validators, improving blockchain processing efficiency.
They also optimize outbound message routing, improving cross-chain communication and data transmission.
2) Bridging Web2 and Web3
PoW (Proof-of-Work) companies have successfully gone public, but PoS (Proof-of-Stake) companies have not yet followed suit. Blockchains need reputable and historically compliant validators.
The Validator-as-a-Service model may become the bridge between compliant listed companies and the blockchain ecosystem.
@yieldbasis is building an AMM (Automated Market Maker)-based BTC yield platform to minimize Impermanent Loss (IL) and truly unlock the value of BTC.
4) Serve the incoming TradFi (Traditional Finance) Stablecoins are still the most profitable business in the crypto industry, but the compliance hurdles for Web2 companies are still high, including regulatory, on/off-ramps, and security issues.@BastionPlatform has obtained a New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) license and is actively positioning itself to become the stablecoin issuer for Web2 giants.
5) Behave like a "non-crypto" business One of the biggest advantages of the crypto industry is liquidity.
