Author: Metrics Ventures

March Market Observation Guide from Metrics Ventures, a Crypto Secondary Fund:

1/ This month's market performance has led many industry peers to claim the end of the bull market, but we firmly believe that the volatility of BTC here once again confirms our view that this round of the market has only reached the middle stage, which is mainly based on the fitting relationship between the trend of BTC and the US dollar risk assets, the reasons for the adjustment of the US dollar system at this time, the further strengthening of the long logic, and the re-confirmation of the mild macro-regulatory environment.

2/ The weakness of altcoins represented by ETH is the main source of market pessimism at the moment. As always, we adhere to the view of the decoupling of BTC and other crypto assets that we have held since last April. The real macro-driven liquidity bull market has not yet arrived, and we should also pay attention to the great uncertainty in the path of the next round of capital flow.

3/ Looking ahead, we believe that the high-level turnover range formed here has been broken, confirming that the market has entered a stage of re-consolidation and accumulation, but looking back at the historical trend of core US dollar assets like AAPL, we believe that the key support for BTC is around the 75,000 line, and there is no need to worry too much before that.

Review and comments on the overall market situation and market trend:

One of the core indicators we focus on for the current trend of BTC is the positioning of BTC as a risk asset in the US dollar system, and the effectiveness of this observation is guaranteed by the fact that the switching of core assets in the US dollar system has always been gradual and driven by macro, regulatory, and fundamental factors. Specifically, the following trend indicators we have observed remain strong:

① The Sharpe ratio of BTC relative to Nasdaq and other "seven sisters" assets still has a significant advantage, and the resilience of BTC has been verified again in a series of short-selling events such as tariffs;

② The on-chain coin mobility is not severe, and it has shown stronger absorption signals rather than disintegration signals during the release of negative news, and the supply has not gone out of control;

③ From the regulatory perspective, the recent series of regulatory actions are significant long-term positive cornerstones in our view, and the market's lack of understanding of the US political and economic system is the main source of irrational fluctuations, which will not change the long-term upward trend.

Combining Bessent's recent indication of the rhythm of the overall US dollar risk release, we firmly believe that the medium-term adjustment cycle starting from February is the best opportunity for positioning in the next 15 months.

Finally, the industry's clearing has finally entered a rapid phase in our view, and if the clearing period can resonate with the rapid and strong amplitude and emotion, it may just catch up with the next macro liquidity bull market, but we still need to remind that the capital flow path of the next bull market may be completely different from 2021, so all the so-called crypto assets need to be particularly cautious in the long-term holding perspective.

Chart: BTC and Nasdaq's relative strength relationship in the past 3 years