I. Core Content of the Reserve Plan

Before the Crypto Summit

On March 2, 2025, US President Trump issued a series of statements through social media platforms announcing a plan to include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA in the US national strategic reserve, and signed the "Digital Asset Executive Order" to establish a Presidential Digital Asset Task Force to promote the relevant plan. He said this move was seen as a direct response to the Biden administration's strict regulatory policies, aimed at making the US the "global capital of cryptocurrencies". After the announcement, Trump announced that he would hold the first White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 7, inviting industry leaders and task force members to discuss the regulatory framework.
In the statement, Trump emphasized that BTC and ETH will be positioned as the "core assets" of the reserve, while XRP, SOL, and ADA will be supplementary components. He specifically mentioned: "Bitcoin and Ethereum will become the core of the monetary reserve, and other valuable cryptocurrencies will jointly support the US digital asset strategy." After the news was released, the cryptocurrency market surged across the board:

• BTC broke through $95,000, with a single-day increase of over 10%;

• ETH rose to over $2,500, an increase of about 13%;

• XRP, SOL, and ADA performed particularly well, with ADA having the highest single-day increase of 72%, and XRP and SOL rising 33% and 22% respectively;

• MEME TRUMP, which is personally associated with Trump, also rose 25%.

After the Crypto Summit

On March 6, 2025, Trump formally signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with funding from the federal government's confiscated Bitcoins (200,000 BTC). These Bitcoins will be used as a store of value and will not be sold. In addition, the executive order also established the US Digital Asset Reserve to hold confiscated digital assets other than Bitcoin, but no new assets will be further acquired, and the reserve will be managed by the US Treasury Department. However, the subsequent Crypto Summit caused the market sentiment to plummet again. This inaugural Crypto Industry Summit, which was hyped as "defining the direction of crypto regulation for the next 4 years", did not release any substantive policy documents, nor did it provide a clear guarantee or timeline for directly purchasing new cryptocurrencies. Most of the speakers' remarks were just expressions of gratitude to Trump. After the summit, the BTC price immediately fell by about 3%, and the market was clearly disappointed.

II. Analysis of Trump-related Assets

Currently, Trump-related crypto assets can be divided into two categories: the US strategic reserve assets and the assets associated with WLFI (World Liberty Financial). The US strategic reserve assets are those that Trump himself has announced plans to include in the national asset reserve. WLFI is a DeFi project that Trump and his family have endorsed, and the project holds a large amount of Altcoins. The WLFI management previously announced a plan to launch its own WLFI asset reserve. Both of these projects have been questioned by the market as having connections to political donations, obtaining the president's advertising position through different channels by making political donations to Trump.

1. US Strategic Reserve Assets (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/ADA)

Legislation on Local Government Bitcoin Reserves in the US Faces Setbacks

Unlike the Bitcoin reserve law signed by Trump through presidential executive power, state-level bills need to go through the state legislative process, and once passed, they become state laws with stronger institutional constraints. About 25 states across the US have proposed regional Bitcoin reserve bills, covering half of the states. So far, 4 states (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio) have had their bills rejected, and they are all "red states" dominated by Republicans. It is worth noting that although the bills proposed by the states differ greatly in their provisions, their essence is to increase new liquidity for the Bitcoin market or reduce potential selling pressure. For example:

• Pennsylvania proposes that the state treasurer invest 10% of the state's funds (about $7 billion) in Bitcoin;

• Texas allows residents to pay taxes and receive donations in Bitcoin, and requires holding it for at least 5 years;

• Ohio plans to establish a reserve from confiscated assets, reducing potential selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Although Trump's signed Bitcoin reserve law has set the tone for a national-level Bitcoin reserve, the progress of state-level reserve bills remains to be observed. Currently, it seems difficult to achieve in the short term, and the numerous rejection cases at the state level (such as the flip-flop attitude of Republican "red states") may shake the support of state legislators. In addition, the recent volatility of BTC is still widely questioned.

Expectations for SOL, XRP, ADA National Reserve Assets and Spot ETFs

The narrative of including SOL, XRP, and ADA in the reserve and approving their spot ETFs may be an important hot topic in 2025, especially with increased volatility around key nodes such as April (preliminary response to SOL ETF) and October (final decision). Currently, the probability of these three projects' spot ETFs being approved in April does not seem high, mainly because they all have certain unlocking and selling pressure risks, which may lead to significant price fluctuations and affect the SEC's decision. SOL has recently experienced a significant price drop of 45% from its high of $261 at the beginning of the year to $141 as of March 5, due to factors such as token unlocking and the LIBRA black swan event. XRP still has 42% of its tokens unlocked, causing market concerns about its future selling pressure. ADA's market capitalization of only $331 billion is significantly lower than the other projects included in the reserve asset list.

2. WLFI-related Assets (TRX/ONDO/MOVE/ENA/LINK/AAVE, etc.)

The assets associated with the cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is supported by the Trump family (such as TRX, ONDO, MOVE, ENA, LINK, AAVE, etc.), generally have small market capitalizations and are highly volatile. The interaction model between these assets and WLFI shows that the project may induce the WLFI Foundation to purchase their tokens through "political donations" or "token swaps" to hype the market. For example, after receiving investment from Justin Sun, WLFI made a large purchase of TRX and WBTC, with a current holding value of about $63.41 million. As of February 9, Sun had invested $75 million, of which 84.5% was used to purchase tokens associated with him. From the market performance, WLFI's holding dynamics often trigger violent fluctuations in the prices of the related tokens. For example, after WLFI announced the purchase of ONDO, its price surged 16.33% within 24 hours, breaking the historical high of 2.1 USDT. This kind of short-term pulse-like rise is highly correlated with WLFI's public holdings disclosure, and has been questioned by the outside world as the project using the "Trump effect" to pump and dump. It is worth noting that the WLFI token itself has serious liquidity problems - it is non-transferable and cannot be traded, and 75% of the project's net profits flow to Trump-related entities, further exacerbating market concerns about manipulation risks.

III. Potential Impact on the Future Crypto Market

Although the US government's recent Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is significantly lower than market expectations in terms of specific scale and policy strength, a vertical comparison of the policy trajectories of the two administrations reveals that the US crypto industry has undergone a historic turning point. Currently, under the regulatory framework restructured by the Republican-led administration, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin not only have the legal status of compliant financial instruments, but are also included in the investment portfolios of mainstream financial institutions.

Although the market's expectation of the "US government directly entering the market to buy BTC" is difficult to achieve in the short term, there are still multiple possibilities for policy evolution: First, the US government will not sell the 200,000 bitcoins it currently owns, and the market's long-standing concern about the "Silk Road" forfeiture fund selling has been resolved, avoiding large sell-off pressure impacting the secondary market; secondly, local governments in the US are promoting regional bitcoin reserve plans, although the progress is not smooth at present, but Trump's signing of the Bitcoin Reserve Act has set the national tone, and the subsequent promotion by local governments may be smoother. In addition, the newly established Cryptocurrency Working Group of the SEC is developing a more flexible compliance framework, paving the way for future federal-level strategic reserves. From a macro perspective, if Trump successfully promotes the inclusion of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin in the US strategic reserves, it may have a demonstration effect, prompting many countries to re-evaluate their reserve strategies. For example, Japan previously postponed its decision on the grounds that "the US is still in the discussion stage", but if the US implements the reserve plan through legislation or administrative means, Japan may turn to a more proactive stance. In addition, countries such as Russia, China, and Europe may accelerate their layout due to geopolitical competition, such as legalizing mining and supporting cryptocurrency reserve bills to strengthen their discourse power in the digital currency field. Note: All cryptocurrency investments, including yield products, have a high degree of speculation and involve significant risks. The past performance of a product does not guarantee its future results. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and before making any investment decisions, you should carefully evaluate whether it is suitable to trade or hold digital currencies based on your personal investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance, and consult with a professional financial advisor. The information in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment, legal or tax advice. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses caused by the use of the information in this article.