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What's next for Trump and the Fed? Where is the future of the crypto market headed?

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话李话外
a day ago
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Followin' the article, we can see the following key points: 1. The U.S. government's debt has reached over $36 trillion as of December 2024, with nearly $3 trillion in U.S. government bonds maturing this year. 2. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to 4.27%, indicating a decline in market sentiment and increased investor concerns about the economic outlook. 3. The recent market volatility is mainly attributed to Trump's tariff policies and uncertainties surrounding him, which have triggered a risk-averse sentiment. 4. The decline in Treasury yields could benefit the U.S. government by allowing it to refinance its debt at lower interest rates. 5. The crypto market is becoming more correlated with the traditional market, and the next bull market (2024-2025) may be the last major growth opportunity for retail investors. 6. Regulatory changes and increased institutional participation are likely to make the crypto market more "mainstream," potentially leading to less extreme boom-and-bust cycles. 7. In the current cycle, some narratives like DeFi, RWA, and Stablecoins have seen more widespread adoption, while many other projects remain in the speculative or "pure air" stage. 8. The past 100 days have seen several unexpected events in the crypto space, such as the Bybit hack and the U.S. president's involvement in crypto. 9. The investment logic in the crypto market appears to be shifting, with a greater focus on projects that can create sustainable value, rather than pure speculation.

Followin', the wild (or savage) era of the crypto market will eventually pass, and the days when one could easily achieve more than 10 times the return by blindly buying a shitcoin during the so-called bull market will gradually disappear. The market will continue to retain the characteristics of crypto, but it also seems to be slowly evolving into a transitional stage similar to the traditional financial market, with liquidity continuously flowing from the hands of those with little investment skills to those with more technical expertise (individuals/institutions). However, in the long run, this is a positive development for the crypto industry. Oftentimes, the end of a stage-based story also means the beginning of a new stage. As long as we grasp the present and look to the future, and continue to be patient, we can navigate this transition. Let's talk about these topics today. The topics discussed may seem a bit broad, and everyone can also think about them from more dimensions. The sources of the images/data mentioned in the text have been supplemented in the Notion document. The content above is my personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.

Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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