A single person is manipulating the global financial markets with ease.

As the global tariff war sparked by Trump escalates, the market's expectations for a US economic recession are also rising. On March 10th local time, US stocks experienced a "Black Monday", with the three major US stock indexes collectively plummeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4%, and the S&P 500 Index fell 2.7%.

The crypto market was also not spared, with BTC falling below $77,000, touching $76,560, a single-day drop of over 8%. ETH also performed poorly, briefly falling below $1,800, reaching around $1,760, returning to levels seen 4 years ago in terms of price.

However, the market now seems to have started warming up, with BTC recovering to $82,000, repairing the decline, and ETH also rising above $1,900.

The external environment is turbulent, and it is unclear whether this wave of growth is a short-term rebound or a reversal signal, as the market is full of doubts.

Trump's success is also his downfall, not only effective in the Altcoin market, but also holds the same weight in the global financial market. To discuss the latest decline in the Altcoin market, we have to start with Trump.

I vaguely remember that in the months before the election, the global financial market was actively responding to the "Trump" trading theme, with investors frantically betting on Trump's policies of deregulation, tax cuts, and immigration. US stocks, the US dollar, and BTC all soared, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising rapidly by 60 basis points. Small-cap stocks reacted significantly, with the Russell 2000 Index, representing US small-cap stocks, surging 5.8% on the second day after the election, the largest single-day gain in nearly three years. From election day to Trump's inauguration, the US dollar index rose by about 6%, and in Trump's first month in office, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Index, dominated by tech stocks, rose 2.2%.

It can be seen that the market had very high expectations for Trump's tenure, but the facts have proven that Trump has brought not only a big rally to the financial market, but also signals of economic recession.

Looking at the US domestic indicators, the situation is complex. The non-farm payrolls in February increased by 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared to the previous value of 4%. Unemployment is still under control and can even be considered good, but inflation, on the other hand, remains high, with the US year-on-year inflation rate in February reaching a new high of 4.3% since November 2023.

Against this backdrop, many institutions have already started to predict a US recession. The latest forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on the 6th shows that US GDP is expected to contract by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. JPMorgan's forecast model shows that as of the 4th, the probability of a US recession has risen from 17% at the end of last November to 31%.

The reasons for this series of data are closely related to the policy proposals adopted by Trump, after all, the president's recent money-making method is simple and too crude - tariffs. As early as February 1st, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on US goods and a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, signaling the start of a tariff war. But as Mexico and Canada softened, Trump waved his hand and postponed it for a month. Just as the world thought there was still room for negotiation on the tariffs, on February 27th local time, Trump announced on social media that the decision to impose a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico would take effect as scheduled on March 4th, and an additional 10% tariff would be imposed on China.

This time, not only China is not used to being bullied, but Canada and Mexico have also been thoroughly angered. On February 27th, the Canadian Prime Minister strongly responded that Canada would impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the President of Mexico also stated that Mexico would take countermeasures. On March 6th, seeing that he had overstepped, Trump signed another executive order to adjust the tariff measures on the two countries, exempting imports that meet the preferential conditions of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement from tariffs. And just yesterday, the absurd White House rhetoric sounded again, with Trump announcing that he would impose an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, and then saying he wouldn't.

Facing the mess, Trump has no choice but to carry out sweeping reforms, with revenue-raising and cost-cutting becoming the key. First, he had his confidant Musk make a big fuss about cutting internal government spending, second, he raised tariffs to raise revenue and reform, and third, he couldn't let the "poor relatives" suck his blood, which also points to the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in EU military spending.

In the long run, this series of combination punches have foreseeable effects, streamlining government agencies can reduce government spending, governing the border can expand the boundaries of national security, and raising tariffs can reduce trade deficits and bring money back to the US. But reform often means bloodshed, and the existence of a painful period is inevitable, and the market can't withstand the pain just yet.

On March 10th, when asked if he expected the US to experience a recession this year, Trump said he "did not want to predict such a thing". Trump said the US government was "bringing wealth back to America", but "it will take some time". This brief statement quickly brought down the financial market. The three major US stock indexes fell across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 890.01 points, or 2.08%, from the previous trading day; the S&P 500 Index fell 155.64 points, or 2.70%; and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 727.90 points, or 4.00%. The FANNG stocks all fell sharply by 4%, and Tesla's stock price fell more than 15%.

The Altcoin market also experienced a big drop, with BTC falling 8% to touch $76,000, and ETH falling below the $2,200 it was jokingly said to have maintained for 4 years, returning to $1,800. The Altcoin market plummeted, and the total market capitalization of the Altcoin market fell below $2.66 trillion. Wall Street institutions have entered emergency avoidance mode, with a net outflow of $369 million from BTC spot ETFs on March 10th, continuing a net outflow for six days; and a net outflow of $37.527 million from ETH spot ETFs, continuing a net outflow for 4 days.

But the good news is that all cryptocurrencies are now gradually warming up, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rising slightly to $2.77 trillion, up 2.5% in 24 hours, and BTC also returning above $83,000. The question then arises, is this latest warming a short-term rebound or the eve of a reversal?

It is clear that the price trend of BTC and the Altcoin market is closely related to US economic indicators, and the current market is actually quite similar to the US, being at the intersection of bull and bear. On the one hand, the US has a healthy private sector balance sheet, with US household leverage at historically low levels and unemployment still relatively good; but on the other hand, CPI remains high, with the cost of food, housing and other items becoming the most important economic issue in the US, with the recent surge in egg prices threatening the entire country; the US economic growth momentum is also insufficient, with AI redefining pricing and the tech stock frenzy continuing to subside.

The cryptocurrency market is the same. On the one hand, the price of Bitcoin exceeding $80,000 and the strategic Bitcoin reserves, coupled with the expected regulatory easing, make it difficult for people to believe this is a bear market, but on the other hand, the decline in market growth momentum and liquidity is real, and the Altcoin market is lamenting.

Therefore, it is necessary to look at the price and go back to the United States and Trump. The market believes that Trump is deliberately creating a recession in order to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to reduce the cost of interest payments. This view also has an element of conspiracy theory, after all, as the president, his aversion to economic recession is greater than his love for it. However, it has to be admitted that the current economic recession warning has led to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market generally believes that a rate cut will come in June. If the interest rate cut is successful and leads to quantitative easing, combined with the relatively strong asset-liability fundamentals, the United States may see a resurgence of the prosperity cycle after the collapse, but the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out.

In the short term, the tariff stick and economic uncertainty will continue to increase, and the cryptocurrency market will find it difficult to see a real reversal before the macroeconomic situation improves. From the current situation, although positive news is frequent, the voices, including Trump's, can hardly affect the cryptocurrency market, and the market's self-healing ability is weak, requiring the injection of external liquidity, rather than any verbal policy incentives.

In a non-recessionary scenario, the maximum decline in Bitcoin may be a return to the pre-Trump era, which was around $70,000 for most institutions. However, in a recessionary scenario, the price may experience a significant decline, and if we look at the S&P 500, a recession would lead to a 20%-50% drop, and Bitcoin may also see an extreme decline. Of course, for the time being, there is no need to panic, as the BTC market's chip-dense area has not been breached, still in the range of $9,000-$9,500, indicating that regional investors have not frequently changed hands.

Based on the current situation, due to the lack of market sentiment ignited by the White House cryptocurrency summit and the Bitcoin strategic reserves, the possibility of major positive events in the next three months is significantly reduced, unless the macroeconomic environment gradually improves, the market will lack growth momentum. Considering Bitcoin's hedging properties, Bitcoin may move from a small-scale oscillation to a large-scale oscillation growth cycle. However, the Altcoin market is likely not doing well, except for the top-tier coins and those with a narrative of being US-made, other coins are unlikely to see growth.

Of course, in the long run, most industry insiders remain optimistic about the market. For example, Arthur Hayes, although he has always stated that Bitcoin may fall to $70,000, he has also consistently claimed that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in the long run. Messari researcher mikeykremer also wrote that Bitcoin may ultimately reach $1 million, but before that, it needs to face a severe bear market. The buying data is also quite optimistic, with CryptoQuant analyst Cauê Oliveira revealing that whales have accumulated more than 65,000 BTC in the past 30 days. LMAX Digital's Joel Kruger is even more optimistic, saying that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom and is expected to rebound in the second quarter.

However, regardless, under the dominance of the external economic situation, tariffs, inflation, and geopolitics will all affect the cryptocurrency market, and for investors, besides waiting, perhaps it is just waiting.