【Market Outlook】
The market sentiment has rebounded slightly, with the fear index at 32 today.
VX: TZ7971
Hesitant sentiment has intensified, buy-side momentum has weakened significantly, and main capital appears to be outflowing, suggesting potential short-term pressure. Large transactions are concentrated around the key $83,600 level, indicating fierce competition at this level. The first resistance point for the day's rebound will be observed at this level. The period from April to October is the "golden window" for the market, and if the historical seasonal pattern repeats, Bitcoin may challenge $126,000.
In the short term, it may be affected by fluctuations in the US stock market, but its unique deflationary attributes and geopolitical hedging demand will allow it to break out independently before June.
【What to Focus on Now】
When the market is calm, it's a good time to make plans: carefully consider what might happen next, where the narrative is forming, and where liquidity will ultimately flow.
Ethereum Staking
Ethereum needs a lifeline, and staking is the only narrative that can save it.
It aligns with the current overall economic situation: yield is king, and investors hope to generate cash flow in a bleak environment.
$LDO and $RPL are obvious proxy plays, but due to the lack of a timeline, time is everything.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has previously pushed this narrative and may do so again. With crypto-friendly management firms, incentive measures will be gradually announced.
Uncertainty keeps people on the sidelines, but once the right asset management firms start moving, it will develop quickly.
Large Token ETFs (LTC, HBAR, and Betas)
$LTC, $HBAR, and $XRP are all in the ETF application process.
The most likely narrative is "buy on rumor, sell on news". Significant inflows are not expected, but proper positioning can still yield attractive returns.
If the news announcements come too quickly, liquidity will shift rapidly, and exiting will become tricky. The best-case scenario is staggered ETF approvals to allow for proper rotation.
Time the market carefully and don't be the last one holding.
Buyback Concept
MKR previously surged 200% due to buybacks, and AAVE rose 30% within days of announcing a buyback.
Hyperliquid → $600 million in annual buybacks
Jupiter → $250 million in annual buybacks
Ethena → Fee switch to be launched soon
Reduced supply, reduced selling pressure.
Reflexivity (the circular relationship between cause and effect) starts to take effect: buybacks drive up prices → generate more fees → fund larger buybacks → the cycle continues.
The narrative is very strong: traders rush to front-run buybacks, only accelerating the entire cycle.
More protocols will follow suit: buybacks and fee switches are becoming the preferred strategies for price appreciation.
Trade on news, don't trade in the middle of the curve, don't take profits too early, and study past price behavior.
Prioritize new/breaking news announcements over past ones. The hype around $HYPE's buyback was good, but it has already played out, and new catalysts are crucial.
RWA and Tokenization
The previous $ONDO has already launched. The new "game" will become the focus.
This narrative aligns perfectly with TradFi's interest in tokenization.
Current watchlist:
$PLUME: Mainnet launch will bring a new, powerful narrative
$AERO: A project that most people haven't noticed yet. If Base continues to build its own blockchain, considering its strong ecosystem connections and recent directional changes, this could be a "favorable" trading opportunity.
$SYROP (formerly MPL): Added to the Coinbase roadmap, likely to list in the coming weeks.
More quality projects may emerge in the future. RWA is a category worth closely monitoring.
Strategic Reserves
Currently, the crypto market is entirely dependent on the decisions of the United States: policies, ETF flows, and regulations.
If other countries get involved, it will break the US's dominance and trigger a new accumulation race.
This narrative is unpredictable, but once it happens, the market will change rapidly.
