Author: Ben Fairbank

The crypto market is like a drunken man, stumbling into 2025 after the bull market at the end of 2024. This bull market is both familiar and fundamentally foreign.

The headline news of Bit reaching $100,000 at the end of 2024, the manic surge of Memecoins like slot machines, and Donald Trump's support for crypto ignited a spectacle akin to Beeple's artwork - captivating yet unsettling.

However, beneath the hype, this cycle is a chaotic mix of leveraged frenzy, institutional restraint, and macroeconomic gambles that could propel the market to new heights or derail it. This is not the FOMO-fueled retail frenzy of 2021, but a different beast, and the data corroborates this chaos.

This bull market is unprecedented, and some controversial truths may make you rethink your position at the table.

Leveraged Trading: From Tool to Casino Drug, Memecoin Whales are the Winners

Leveraged trading is not new, but the scale is staggering.

In the 2021 bull market, leverage was just a side dish, but now it's the main course, laced with Memecoin mania. Platforms like Binance and Bybit report a surge in leveraged trading volumes, with Binance alone seeing $1.2 trillion in Q4 2024 perpetual futures trading, a 60% increase from the 2021 peak.

Memecoins, the fallen darlings of crypto casinos, are the spark, more incendiary than the tinder that ignited the Los Angeles wildfires. A 2025 Security.org survey found that 68% of Memecoin traders admitted to losses since entering, yet they continue to double down with 50x, 100x leverage, like Dogecoin celebrities waiting to hit the jackpot. Why? Because Dogecoin reached $0.73 (over $100 billion market cap) and the TRUMP token hit a $15 billion peak in January 2025, turning trading into a dopamine factory.

This is not rational speculation, but a slot machine in blockchain clothing, where the house always wins. We hear stories like that of 27-year-old trader Chump, who told Business Insider: "I love the thrill of watching the numbers go up." He made $10,000 trading Memecoins, but he's the lucky one. Why is $10,000 worth reporting? Because they attract the small-time starters and big-time gamblers. But most are losing, and the leveraged frenzy has turned this bull market into a steroid-fueled circus.

Position Sizing: Crypto Leverage Math Upends Traditional Thinking

Things get even crazier, with crypto market leverage positions quoted at full risk exposure, a baffling scenario unseen in traditional markets. A $4 million trade at 50x leverage? That's a $200 million market exposure. In stocks or forex, you'd only report the $4 million margin, not the amplified bet. This inflates the optics and magnifies the risk.

Galaxy Research estimates that the average 2025 leverage position size by notional value is $5.2 million, up from $1.8 million in 2021. This is a massive leap, driven by platforms dangling 100x leverage like candy to retail traders.

Traditional markets limit leverage to 10x for good reason, but crypto's "full exposure" strategy is a marketing gimmick, turning traders into reckless gamblers. When a TRUMP whale cashed out $109 million in two days (New York Times, February 2025), that's not skill, but a leveraged lottery ticket. The other side of that trade lost $2 billion. This is not investing, as I've said many times, but a zero-sum bloodbath, and the data shows it's bigger and uglier than ever.

Institutions: Calmly Fishing While the Circus Burns

Institutional investors, the so-called "smart money," are not partaking in this leveraged circus. BlackRock's IBIT ETF holds 550,000 BTC, and hedge funds like Millennium applied for $36 billion in Bit ETP in 2024 (Galaxy, 2025). But they are not chasing the 50x Memecoin frenzy. Coinbase Institutional's report shows that in 2025, 82% of institutional crypto asset allocation is long-term holding, focused on Bit, Ether, and perhaps Solana, centered on a "strategic reserve" narrative, not short-term trading's descent.

Unlike retail investors who panic-sell at every dip, institutions are building positions gradually. Why? Trump's Bit reserve comments and ETF approvals have them eyeing a 5-10 year horizon, not quick doubles.

As James Lavish of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund said at the 2024 New Orleans Investment Conference: "Bit's transition from speculative to strategic asset" is real, and institutions are betting it will surpass gold (currently around 11% of gold's market cap, and growing daily). They'll ride this bull market, but won't be destroyed by leverage - that's the retail privilege.

Trump's Economic Gamble: Recession's Coin Flip and Crypto's Big Moment

Fast-forward to mid-2025, the U.S. economy is on thin ice, and Trump is balancing a pole. Picton Mahoney's October 2024 report estimated a 75% recession probability, citing an un-inverted yield curve, rising bankruptcy rates, and manufacturing doldrums.

Trump's response? Slash spending, impose steep tariffs, and go all-in on deregulation. It's a high-stakes gamble that could either crash the dollar or ignite a crypto supernova. If inflation spikes (core CPI at 3.1%, above the Fed's 2% target), the "digital gold" narrative of Bit will get rocket fuel.

The timing is eerie, with InvestingHaven's timeline analysis predicting a major bull run peak mid-year (breakthrough in March-April 2025). But if Trump's tariffs choke growth and retail wallets are empty, the bull market could stall.

The data is mixed, with Security.org's survey showing 60% of crypto-aware Americans believe Trump's return benefits crypto, but some still doubt its safety. This is not a simple catalyst, but a chaotic coin flip with global ripples.

Tariff Hedge or Collapse: The Crypto Recession Screenplay

Will Trump's tariffs trigger a crypto hedging frenzy, impeding the bull market, or make digital assets the ultimate safe haven? The data leans toward the latter.

Coincub predicts that by the end of 2025, stablecoin daily trading volume will reach $300-400 billion, up from $100 billion in November 2024, as businesses hedge forex risks.

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs, like real estate, art, bonds) is exploding, with market value projected to leap from $2.81 billion in 2023 to $9.82 billion by 2030 (Exploding Topics). Why? Liquidity and inflation resistance.

If the U.S. economy stumbles, crypto's decoupling from stocks (correlation down to 0.3 in Q1 2025, Coinbase data) could make it a magnet for capital flight. But the key is, retail is already exhausted, as we all know. Economic stagnation could choke the FOMO fuel needed for past bull runs. This could be the first bull market dictated by institutions, not retail - a mind-bending thought.

The Redemption Path for Retail Investors: Greed, Regret, and Empty Pockets

Talking to crypto veterans, the atmosphere is a mix of PTSD and cautious hope. Many got greedy in 2021, experienced the crash, and now just want to "get their money back".

Some who cashed out at the 2021 peak never came back, and I call them the smart ones. Others are still trading MeMe coins daily, chasing $500 wins, while admitting it's a "gambling addiction".

The HODL FM 2025 survey found that 73% of long-term holders hope to at least break even this cycle, but 40% haven't re-entered since the 2022 Bear Market. The data is suffocating.

The truth is, retail investors are broke. The 2021 bull market money is gone, with the household savings rate dropping to 4.9% (Fed data), down from 7.5% pre-pandemic. If this bull run ignites, it won't be on the back of parental FOMO, but institutional capital - retail either hitches a ride or gets left behind. A purely institutional-driven bull market? Not only possible, but likely.

Gambling Won't Save Us: Where's the Real Fuel?

Desperation drives traders to leverage and Memecoins, but it's not enough.

The $2.2 billion in hacks in 2024 and 19% of crypto holders being blocked from withdrawing funds are sending distrust signals. Gambling on MeMe coins won't inject new capital into the market, it's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

New money must come from elsewhere, like ETFs (Galaxy predicts $250 billion AUM), corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy style), or nation-states (Trump's 20.7k BTC reserve plan). Without these, this bull run is a mirage. Let's get real, shall we? That's how to get ahead of the curve.

The Open Creator Economy: AI's Global Bazaar in Recession

AI is rewriting the rules, and this bull run may birth an open creator economy that transcends borders. On-chain AI agents are exploding, with Funds Society predicting 1 million by 2025, involved in trading, gaming, and building decentralized platforms.

What's traded in a recession? Luxury (45% rise in art NFTs by 2024), essential services (tokenized healthcare credits), and speculative assets (yes, still Memecoins). AI makes it scalable - imagine teen traders tokenizing TikTok influencer power. It's happening, I'm sure of it.

But it's not all sunshine. Masa's analysis points to API restrictions and data bottlenecks potentially stifling growth. If successful, this bull run will be a global wealth transfer, not just an American party. If it fails, we're back to in-group PVP.

The Wealth Shift: Patience Prevails, Impatience Bleeds

The market is Darwinian, with patience snatching wealth from the impatient.

This bull run will see wealth shift from leveraged retail to steady investors. The cycle begins and ends with the same narrative, Memecoins waning and then surging again.

InvestingHaven predicts Dogecoin and Shiba Inu will peak again in the next MeMe frenzy. But the data is clear, 68% of Memecoin traders are in the red.

The winners? The quietly accumulating institutions and veterans.

In Summary: Finding Your Seat When the Music Stops

This bull run is a mess - leveraged frenzy, institutional restraint, Trump's wild bet, and the coming creator economy.

What makes it different is that retail is broke, institutions are cautious, and the world is watching an economic experiment that could make or break America.

The data screams volatility, but also opportunity. Calmly and patiently choose your position, and when the music stops, only the patient will have a seat.

Original Title: Why This Bull Run Is Different: A Hard-Hitting Look at the Crypto Casino, Institutional Power, and the Global Economic Gamble
Original Link: bit.ly/3DLqLoO
Original Author: Ben Fairbank
Translated by: Bai Hua Blockchain