Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
It's Friday, let's briefly summarize this week's market. To be honest, whether from liquidity, macroeconomic perspective, or data, there are still no signs of reversal.
The simplest example is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. After the March dot plot was released, several Fed officials stated that they do not plan to cut rates in the short term, which means high interest rates will persist for a while.
With Trump shouting about imposing tariffs, the risks of inflation and recession hang like the Sword of Damocles, and the longer it drags on, the more dangerous it becomes.
This not only affects the BTC circle but also causes the US stock market to fluctuate. So currently, it's most likely a game period, critically depending on how inflation moves after Trump's tariffs are implemented. Every time he shouts about raising tariffs, the market reacts like a startled bird.
The current Trump is like an invisible candlestick chart artist, or a strategic advisor. If he fails to take down a place three times, he sounds the retreat, lets you rest in the city, and then a few days later shouts to charge again!
Back to the BTC circle, recently analysts have said that BTC's four-year cycle rule has been broken, and future cycles might be chaotic.
Personally, I think this conclusion is premature. This halving cycle's bull market is much dimmer compared to 2017 and 2021. One could even say the true bull market hasn't arrived yet, and Altcoins' performance is far less impressive than previous cycles, but this doesn't mean the major cycle rule is gone.
This round of changes mainly stems from shifts in market underlying and upper-level logic. After BTC's ETF was approved last year, pushing prices from 30k to 70k. Later, with Trump winning the election, main players pulled the market to break 100k, so this is an institutional bull market.
Retail investors are still living in the previous logic, thinking BTC breaking 100k would definitely cause Altcoins to surge hundreds of times, given the crazy bull market of 2020-2021 where hundred-fold, thousand-fold, and ten-thousand-fold coins were everywhere.
But this round, Altcoins are basically lying at the bottom because the events of previous years disrupted economic order. Many project teams and investors saw asset shrinkage or even bankruptcy, and the post-pandemic era hasn't recovered. Some project teams randomly issued tokens, harvested a wave, and then ran away, creating a mess in market liquidity.
Additionally, with inflation tightening in the past two years, new money can't come in to push token prices. With BTC's high returns, funds all flow to BTC, resulting in BTC standing alone while other coins wither.
So this round is BTC's solo bull market. Altcoins' best period was the bear-bull transition from the year before last to last year, but that's now history. Some say a bull market without Altcoins isn't a true bull market, but I think that's a bit extreme. Market funds are limited, BTC is the leader and consensus. As long as it doesn't fall into a deep bear market this year, the four-year cycle rule isn't broken!
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 87800
Second Resistance: 87300
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 86800
Second Support: 86300
Today's Recommendation:
BTC rebounded after consolidating in the 82-83K range previously, and the price has been hovering around 86-87K. Yesterday's precisely buried low long at 85800 captured 1900 points, so today focus on whether it can stabilize in this range before deciding on ultra-short-term entry.
The resistance above is obvious, so don't be overly optimistic about setting higher resistance levels. First focus on the immediate short-term resistance, and consider further moves after breaking through.
The first support level coincides with the 120-day moving average, so it can serve as the first support. However, this level might be easily broken, so don't rush to enter. It's best to wait for a lower shadow to appear before considering ultra-short-term entry.
The second support level is the low point formed at yesterday's close. Whether it can hold this level during the day is crucial. If continued decline occurs, it's best to close above 86300, closely watch if the low point can be raised before considering a supplementary rebound.
On the 1-hour level, BTC is in a triangular convergence pattern, forming a small box between 86.8-87.3K USD. For ultra-short-term operations, recommend focusing on breakthrough points of the convergence pattern's upper and lower edges before deciding to enter.
Master Chen's Swing Trading Preset for 3.28:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently recommended
Short Entry Reference: Light short position in 87600-88300 range, Target: 86800-86300
This content is exclusively planned and released by Master Chen (Public Account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen uses the same name across all platforms. To learn more about real-time investment strategies, hedging, spot, short/medium/long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and candlestick knowledge, you can join Master Chen's learning exchange group, which now offers free fan experience groups and community live streaming!
Warm Reminder: Only the column public account (shown above) is written by Master Chen. Advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments are unrelated to the author! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity, and thank you for reading.
