Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:

On the last day of March, I will first comprehensively answer the weekend questions. Will there be interest rate cuts this year? Will the bull market return if there are cuts? Master Chen has discussed these issues in previous articles, with different perspectives and standards.

If Master Chen were to speak personally, the bull market left on December 18th last year. On January 20th when Trump took office, there was a brief surge, which felt like the last gasp after the bull market had died. Those who were chasing purchases were basically standing at the mountain top, otherwise they would have been finished early.

Looking at the monthly line level, Ethereum has been completely bearish since January, meaning there is no bottom! No bottom means it will continue to hit new lows.

BTC is slightly stronger, not completely breaking the bear market line, with the deep bear demarcation point currently at 62800. Note this is the deep bear line, which is already considered a bear market, and the bear market has been running for two months, which no one can dispute.

Currently, market signals are very obvious, with exchange hacking or coin loss incidents emerging before every potential crash. Has anyone seen such messy news during a bull market?

Thinking back, probably not! During a bull market, everyone is busy counting money, with cash too hot to handle - why would hackers not steal? Isn't this evidence of a bear market, where everyone is so poor they're jingling?

Regarding the second question: Will there be interest rate cuts this year? Will the bull market return if there are cuts? First, market expectations are that there might be 1-2 cuts this year, but who can guarantee this with certainty?

There are many variables in between, such as sudden inflation spikes that could immediately stop rate cuts, or even require rate increases next year. Anything could happen, so Master Chen advises everyone not to have too high expectations - the higher the expectation, the greater the disappointment.

Even if there are truly two cuts, the bull market may not necessarily return, at most bouncing a couple of times. Those shouting about 150,000 or 250,000 are just annoying - what's the point of such baseless hype? So whether in a bear or bull market, we must learn to play volatile markets.

Additionally, there might be significant movements Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights this week. On Wednesday, Trump will implement reciprocal tariffs, and on Friday, the US non-farm payroll data will be released, with a high probability of market impact - don't ignore the risks. If prices drop on Wednesday, non-farm data might pull up prices on Friday.

The reverse is also true - if the first half of the week is particularly bad, the latter half might be somewhat stable. But don't celebrate too early; pulling up is just to create another drop, an unstable rebound is worthless.

Master Chen summarized that focusing solely on market trends, the Federal Reserve, and US policies is insufficient. Some say information determines K-lines, but Master Chen believes K-lines determine information. For medium to long-term trends, look at weekly and monthly MACD - the trend for the next few months is already set.

For short-term aspects, when K-lines reach critical points, such as before a triangular convergence, news will always emerge to influence sentiment, and then K-lines will run in their original direction.

Master Chen's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance: 84400

Second Resistance: 83000

Support Levels Reference:

First Support: 81200

Second Support: 79000

Today's Recommendation:

Currently, the coin price maintains support in the 79-81k range, with RSI indicators showing oversold territory, so a short-term rebound can be expected. However, if it breaks below the psychological support of 80k intraday, it might trigger massive selling, making this a critical range.

The current K-line shows a lower shadow, so an appropriate rebound might push prices to 83k. However, due to the narrowing gap between previous high points and moving averages, strong resistance is expected. If prices rebound to the first and second resistance levels, the short-term trend may shift from long to short.

The first support level of 81.2k is crucial, being the previous low point area where the K-line showed a lower shadow. If it breaks below this area again, downward pressure will increase, so maintaining this level is critical for a rebound.

As it has entered the oversold zone, a short-term rebound is anticipated. But if the coin price drops below 81-81.2k, it might accelerate downward due to losing the low point. Before the short-term trend turns upward, Master Chen will maintain the downward trend perspective.

Master Chen's 3.31 Wave Trading Preparation:

Long Entry Reference: Currently Not Recommended

Short Entry Reference: Light position short at 83600-84400 range, Target: 81200-80800

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