Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside

At the current stage, the overall market sentiment is not bad, but many people seem to have lost motivation and patience for investment, and even some members in the group have recently left a message saying that they have quit (exited the circle) and are no longer playing.

From the current trend or data, the market seems to be in an interesting (or strange) state. On one hand, the BTC balance on exchanges is declining, and the current inventory has dropped to 2.18 million coins, as shown in the image below.

On the other hand, the OTC Desks balance is also at a historical low, as shown in the image below.

This might indicate that spot demand is continuously depleting, and funds (including institutions) are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, the market seems to have fallen into a boring state where neither buyers nor sellers are active.

Since January this year, the market has experienced a relatively large pullback, and many people have gradually awakened from the euphoria of last year's fourth quarter. After experiencing a brief monkey market, we seem to be currently experiencing a crab market (i.e., sideways, because crabs walk sideways).

Now everyone seems to be waiting for a market reversal opportunity. This opportunity might be some new policies from the United States (the first week of April will be a key week, as it involves tax policies, non-farm data, unemployment rate data, Powell's speech, etc.), or a new blockbuster innovation from the crypto field (an internal catalyst), but currently, no one knows.

If we can't wait for such external or internal catalysts in the short term, but you still want to persist in this field, then there are two things to pay attention to:

- Try to stay away from things that might go to zero, and start refocusing on truly useful things.

- Maintain a good mindset, continue to reasonably optimize positions, and prepare in advance for the next opportunity

Because if you remain immersed in the current volatility or PvP speed run game and can't get out, even if the market presents a new opportunity, you may continue to suffer significant damage (such as larger losses) without being prepared.

Many people, after experiencing a major market fluctuation or a roller coaster-like market, are hurt not only in their positions (invested funds) but possibly also in psychological aspects. For example, you hope the market can give you another chance to break even, you hope someone can directly tell you a coin to quickly turn things around, you can't help but open the exchange/wallet 10-20 times a day to check balance changes... But often, the more you do this, the more you will regret your initial decision and fall into a certain pessimistic mood.

At this point, the market takes away not just your money, but even your physical and mental health.

So, how can we try to avoid or overcome such problems?

1. Minimize Monitoring Time

The market is cyclical. As long as we are still in this field, there will be new opportunities, but new opportunities are often given to those who are prepared in advance. So, what have you prepared now?

As we've said in previous articles, if monitoring could change the market trend, I would be willing to monitor 24 hours a day, but this is unrealistic.

To be blunt, if you really can't hold on and the XX coin you're holding is seriously affecting your sleep quality, then you should cut losses in time without hesitation.

It's better to temporarily stay away from market noise and use this time to think about and review your past trading notes.

Learn to admit failure, and more importantly, learn to bear failure. The most important thing is to use failure to improve your strategy or trading system.

In short, don't let "losses" dominate your next path, but let your strategy determine the next path. Up to now, although you may have some losses, if we look at it from another angle, you are actually ahead of many people because you have deeply experienced the market's cruelty and clearly understand what you should do next & what not to do.

2. Learn to Take Active Measures, Not Just Wait

If someone tells you there might be a new opportunity in the market this year, do you have a response plan?

If someone tells you the market has entered a new bear market cycle, do you have a response plan?

As we mentioned in previous articles, although everyone is focusing on bull and bear markets, the market's true composition is nothing more than three structures: rising, falling, and sideways. As long as the market is volatile, there will always be opportunities to make money. What we need to do is discover things that suit our time, effort, and risk appetite, and then persistently repeat them.

Many people say that investment requires patience, but patience here is not simply waiting, but learning to take active measures. In other words, you need to position yourself correctly and then patiently and persistently execute your trading strategy.

So, what basic strategies or approaches are suitable for most people?

In last year's e-book "Blockchain Methodology," we have shared a lot about this topic. Here, we'll briefly understand a few aspects:

1) DCA-Based Execution Strategy

DCA can be directly understood as an investment strategy that requires sufficient patience, such as consistently buying BTC during a bear market, operating on a weekly or monthly basis, and then patiently waiting to sell in batches when the bull market begins.

This strategy, in addition to requiring persistence and patience, has several important considerations:

- Large positions should focus on long-term DCA for BTC, with positions still at least 50% or more.

- If you like Altcoins, you must choose projects with actual utility and long-term development vision, and pay attention to the proportion of positions.

- Do not be obsessed with any MemeCoin. If you want to speculate, only use funds you can afford to lose completely.

- Do not always try to buy at the bottom. DCA ≠ buy the dips.

- Ignore noise, stay focused, and persist. The core pursuit of this strategy is the "slow is fast" approach.

2) Narrative-Based Entry Approach

As mentioned earlier, if you like Altcoins, you must choose projects with actual utility and long-term development vision. The key here is selection, and we believe the best selection strategy must be based on narratives.

The market first has narratives, and then drives the corresponding sector's tokens to rise. Therefore, when choosing projects, we should prioritize considering narratives rather than just wanting to buy a certain token.

For example, among narratives like AICrypto, RWA, DeFi, DePIN, etc., which narrative might have new opportunities next? You just need to explore the corresponding narrative in advance, so that before the new bull market or new stage of opportunity arrives, you are more likely to grasp the opportunity compared to others.

Of course, for narratives, we can also appropriately use some on-chain tools to assist our research.

First, let's look at which narratives are currently gaining heat. As shown in the image, it seems that Oracles' heat is rising to some extent.

Next, let's look at the project list under the corresponding narrative, as shown in the image. We'll continue to examine which projects are in the Oracles category.

After selecting the narrative target and a list of potential projects, the next step is to research different projects based on dimensions we consider valuable.

For example, we can score projects through a breakdown method. Here are several dimensions for project research:

- Team dimension: whether the project has a reliable and experienced team that can continuously build the project.

- Development dimension: whether the project has a clear business model or sustainable profit model.

- Market fit: whether the project's product can find a market fit or has a clear PMF (Product Market Fit).

- Token economics: whether the project has good tokenomics, including token allocation ratio or method, whether tokens can be smoothly sold if there are release schedules, and so on.

- Narrative attributes: whether the project can align with market trends, such as AI being hyped in the market, giving AICrypto a tailwind advantage, or major institutions trying to promote asset tokenization, giving RWA a tailwind advantage, and so on.

You can convert these dimensions into an EXCEL spreadsheet, set different scores based on your priorities, create an investigation table for each project, and finally select specific projects based on your actual scoring results. Combine this with on-chain indicators (including K-lines) to determine entry timing and make long-term bets on the corresponding projects.

We have previously demonstrated this project scoring method, and interested readers can review the historical article, as shown in the image.

According to DEXTools data, the number of tokens in on-chain DEX currently exceeds 16.81 million (note that these are tradable tokens; if all tokens created on-chain are counted, the number is estimated to be around 40 million). Therefore, our narrative-based approach can help reduce the time and effort spent on blindly choosing tokens.

In summary, if you don't have time to do research but don't want to miss opportunities in this field, the simplest method is to consistently invest in BTC through a DCA strategy. If you want to obtain higher returns through Altcoins, you can try to create a project research plan for yourself. As for those hoping to get rich overnight by asking others for wealth secrets, we have no good advice and can only wish you good luck.

3. Other Choices Besides Trading

Additionally, in this field, besides making money through spot, contract, and futures trading, there are other options depending on your interests and willingness to invest effort.

For example, nearly zero-cost testnet interaction. You can interact with various dApps without risking wallet theft (using wallets with small asset amounts), while experiencing projects and learning, such as recent interactions with networks like Monad and MegaETH.

Another option is on-chain financial management that at least won't result in losses. If you have some principal but don't want to bear market volatility, participating in financial management is a good choice. Some new projects' financial management (staking) might even offer additional airdrop opportunities. If you research well, achieving 10-15% annual returns is possible. However, be cautious of project risks, such as only choosing stablecoin financial management and avoiding staking Altcoins for supposed high returns, while carefully assessing project risks (potential rugging or theft).

Or, if you enjoy writing, you could consider creating a content column like some others, or start a video or live streaming channel if you're comfortable being on camera.

Ultimately, different people should have different choices (persistently doing 1-2 things you believe are right and willing to invest long-term), and different choices may yield different results. Cause is feared by Bodhisattvas, consequences are feared by all beings.

The market is cruel, fluctuations are merciless. Only those who prepare in advance during market silence, and those who can maintain inner calm when most people are collapsing, can possibly achieve their desired results. An individual's investment return is often determined by their trading discipline and personal mindset.

Peace of mind, Keep moving forward.

Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZHWo3RCOWnXzEUmp8D4cjA