On March 31, 2025, Bitcoin teetered on the edge of $83,000, dropping about 24% from its peak of $109,000 two months ago. The market was like a giant seesaw, with one end whispering of an abyss and the other tempting with starry skies.

Today, we focus on two heavyweight sages of the crypto world: Quinn Thompson, the helmsman of Lekker Capital, predicts Bitcoin will slowly bleed to $50,000-$59,000; Arthur Hayes, the godfather of Maelstrom, boldly bets it will ride the QE tailwind to $250,000 - a year-end target he reaffirmed in his latest article, despite his occasional quip about an ultimate million-dollar vision. Their logics are like black and white pieces on a chessboard, diametrically opposed yet captivating.

Quinn Thompson: The "Cold-Blooded Prophet" of Wall Street

Quinn Thompson is the founder of Lekker Capital, an "old soldier" who transitioned from traditional finance to the crypto realm. He once managed billions on Wall Street and is known for precise macro insights. In 2024, while Bitcoin was still at high levels, his X posts already predicted market decline, revered as "prophetic last words". Thompson's style is calm and sharp, like a doctor wielding a scalpel, adept at dissecting economic contexts. His predictions often carry a cold sense of destiny, as if he has long seen through market rises and falls.

Core Divergence: The Abyss of Tightening or the Frenzy of Easing?

The disagreement between two masters is like a philosophical and strategic peak confrontation, focusing on the game of policy path and liquidity:

Policy Intent

Thompson views Trump as a "cold-blooded surgeon" who reduces economic bubbles through D.O.G.E., immigration policies, and tariff cuts, even at the cost of recession. In his eyes, the White House would rather let the economy bleed to "cure the disease". Hayes sees him as a "real estate maniac" who creates a recession illusion with D.O.G.E. to force the Federal Reserve to print money, actually paving the way for "America First". Thompson focuses on the direct consequences of tightening, while Hayes sees through the easing motivation behind it.

Federal Reserve Response

Thompson believes the Federal Reserve is a "lukewarm spectator" who dares not ease significantly under inflation pressure, with QE being far off. He expects Powell to be cautious and unable to reverse the downward trend. Hayes counters that the Federal Reserve is a "tamed beast" that will restart QE under fiscal dominance and recession threats, even introducing SLR exemptions to become a liquidity fountain. He believes Powell has no choice but to submit.

Liquidity Outcome

Thompson predicts a "slow bear" market, with economic slowdown suppressing risk assets, causing Bit to gradually drop to $50,000-$59,000. Hayes anticipates a "fast bull" market, with a liquidity flood pushing Bit to $250,000, even laying the groundwork for a million-dollar valuation. Their views on liquidity are worlds apart, with one bearish and the other bullish.

Current Progress: Is Hayes's $250,000 Prediction More Promising?

In this $50,000 versus $250,000 contest, data suggests Hayes's "250,000 frenzy" might be more forward-looking. Thompson's "slow bear" logic makes sense in the short term: D.O.G.E. cuts have already caused Washington housing prices to drop 11% and employment data to worsen, with recession clouds approaching. The Federal Reserve's cautious attitude also aligns with his judgment. Although Powell slowed QT in the March meeting, he remained vague about QE. If tightening exceeds expectations, Bit dropping to $60,000-$70,000 is not impossible. However, this is just the surface, and Hayes has grasped a deeper pulse.

Hayes pinpoints in 'KISS' that Trump is not an economic Puritan, but a believer in debt financing. He will not tolerate depression destroying his political capital, but will use the D.O.G.E. "tightening illusion" to force Powell to open the floodgates. The March FOMC meeting's QT slowdown released $240 billion in liquidity, and Powell's hint of "net Treasury buying" is already a QE prelude. Hayes's estimated $3.24 trillion liquidity (1.7 trillion rate cuts + 5.4 billion QT stop + QE/SLR 500 billion-1 trillion) may not have fully materialized, but the direction is clear. Moreover, the potential global easing effects - China stabilizing exchange rates, Europe expanding - will amplify this flood. Bit, as a "liquidity barometer", has stabilized at $76,500, indicating the market senses a turning point.

Thompson underestimates Trump's pragmatism and the Federal Reserve's passivity. Hayes has insight into the game of human nature and policy: Trump's "real estate show man" nature determines he will choose to print money, and Powell's "forced easing" under fiscal dominance is a historical destiny. My judgment is: in the short term (6-9 months), Bit may oscillate in the $70,000-$90,000 range, digesting tightening pressure; but if QE restarts in the third quarter, hitting $250,000 by year-end is not a fantasy. Hayes's "alchemy" wins by grasping the lifeline of liquidity, not the illusion of tightening.

Epilogue: The Symphonic Duel from $50,000 to $250,000

This $50,000 versus $250,000 contest is a battle between a calm "surgical knife" and a passionate "alchemy furnace". Thompson is like a chess player, cautious and strategic, with a cold realism beneath pessimism; Hayes is like a gambling god, betting big, with a deep insight into policy hidden in optimism. Whoever laughs last, this debate reveals Bit's essence: it is not an isolated island, but a mirror of macroeconomic currents. Investors might as well "hold Thompson's caution in one hand and grasp Hayes's passion in the other", waiting quietly for QE's thunderbolt in the oscillation. Will the $250,000 bell ring by year-end? Are you ready for the climax of this symphony?