PANews reported on April 3rd that according to Jinshi, CICC stated today that after calculation, if tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the United States will sharply increase by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%. This level exceeds the previously anticipated extreme scenario. For the United States, if these tariffs continue, the economy will face a more severe "stagflation" risk. Tariffs are essentially a government tax increase, with businesses and consumers bearing the cost, equivalent to fiscal tightening. Trump's tariff increases will cause money to be withdrawn from the private sector to the government sector, reducing private sector net assets, and suppressing investment and consumer spending, making economic downturn difficult to avoid; tariffs will also push up price levels, increasing short-term inflationary pressures. CICC stated that without considering exchange rate fluctuations, calculations show that on top of previous tariffs, adding reciprocal tariffs may raise US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points, increase US fiscal revenue by $737.4 billion, and reduce US real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points. Facing stagflation risks, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut rates in the short term. The Fed's inability to cut rates means the "Fed put" is missing, which will further increase US economic downside risks and market adjustment pressures.