Next week's macro outlook: CPI will make it "even more difficult" for the Fed, and the US dollar index may fall into a quagmire of plummeting

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PANews
04-06
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PANews reported on April 6 that after Trump's tariff proposal was announced, market sentiment drastically deteriorated, with the proposal intensifying global growth concerns and causing a sharp decline in the US stock market. On Friday, the S&P 500's market value evaporated another $1.5 trillion, with a cumulative loss of $3.5 trillion over two trading days. Large tech stocks fell, with the Nasdaq index closing more than 20% below its record high from December, entering a technical bear market. Looking ahead to next week, the tariff outlook remains far from clear. Investors will continue to focus on potential agreements between the US and other countries, which could help improve market sentiment. If no agreements are reached and more countries respond with tariffs, the market may face another painful week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Wednesday 02:00, San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a dialogue titled "Federal Reserve Economic Outlook and Work"

Wednesday 23:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech

Wednesday 21:30, Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver a welcome address at an event

Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the March monetary policy meeting minutes

Thursday 20:30, US March CPI data and US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5

Friday 00:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club

Friday 00:30, Philadelphia Fed President Hark will speak on financial technology

Friday 20:30, US March PPI data

Friday 22:00, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy

Friday 22:00, US April one-year inflation rate expectation initial value, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value

Friday 23:00, New York Fed President Williams will speak on economic prospects and monetary policy

Given all the current uncertainties, dollar traders will focus on the US March CPI data to be released next Thursday. Tariffs not only pose a threat to economic activity but also present upside risks to inflation. If CPI data further accelerates, this could prompt traders to reduce some rate cut bets. In addition to CPI data, PPI data and inflation expectations may also become key market drivers.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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