Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
These days, fundamental, technical, and sentiment aspects are useless, it all depends on what the leader says. Technically, divergence, oversold, major moving average support, etc., it feels like a rebound is about to be called?
Wanting to go short at high levels, waiting for a second test to enter steadily. As a result, once the leader speaks, it directly V-reverses, BTC suddenly jumps 10%, and defense is immediately broken. Yesterday morning, the master calmed down and wrote a lot of market analysis, but couldn't save the draft. Why?
Because with the leader around, any analysis is futile, the market is entirely controlled by his words. Everyone has seen the tariff issue, and the leader's pressure on the market has made the risk market deviate. Yesterday afternoon, the panic index even broke 60, this volatility expectation is similar to the past two years.
The last time it was this high was in August 2024, at 65.73, and the previous time was in March 2020 during the economic recession, with the V panic index reaching 85. Heard that at 50, the US stock market is basically in a bear market. More annoying is that tariffs are not over, with GDP data waiting at the end of the month.
So April is not easy, not because of a unidirectional market, but because of too many events and too much uncertainty. Wanting to make a trade requires walking on eggshells, afraid that the leader's words might ruin my plans.
Back to BTC, the master believes this downward trend is not over. Yesterday afternoon around 74460 was a continuation point, and after a small hourly level pullback today or tomorrow, it still needs to go down. The monthly line is about to form a death cross, and the master actually said earlier that the bull market is over, but didn't want to pour cold water on everyone too early.
Strictly speaking, the first half of the year's bull market is definitely gone, there might be a rebound in the third quarter after the June rate cut, with daily line gradually pulling back, but after topping, next year will be a deep bear market.
This also aligns with BTC's four-year halving cycle, the master thinks this cycle hasn't broken, just the market changed a bit. If BTC's monthly line has three consecutive red candles, May must close green, otherwise it'll be terrible.
If May can close green, BTC needs to stand at 88.5 to 89.6K. Otherwise, continuing to close red, the next major pullback might go down to 73 to 66K.
So endure April, May might be better. But if everyone starts shouting bull market at a rebound, that would be too naive. The market is like this now, we can only adapt as we go.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 83100
Second Resistance: 81400
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 78500
Second Support: 77000
Today's Recommendation:
The first resistance at 81.4K is the previous support low point, so it must be broken to expect consolidation of the long trend. Currently, as it's rebounding from the low point, this is a strong resistance.
The first support may be broken with increased volatility, so buying in batches between 77k to 78.5k is the most suitable strategy for ultra-short-term.
Since yesterday's K-line with significantly increased trading volume is the current bottom, the V-shaped rebound indicates that holding the first and second supports during adjustment helps raise the low point.
In today's trading, with the large trading volume at the bottom, the short-term bottom is temporarily formed. If the low point rises during closing in the adjustment period, an ultra-short-term rebound strategy can be considered.
4.8 Master's Swing Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended currently
Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 81400-82400 zone Target: 80000-78500-77000
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