Readers often ask in the comment section: Are there any Altcoin market trends coming up?
To this question, I have replied multiple times. I believe that a general Altcoin bull market is unlikely to be seen, but a few valuable projects and value coins may still have the opportunity to rise with the bull market.
This view is merely my own intuitive feeling, without much experience to follow or historical data to support it.
However, recently, after reading an investment experience of a senior investor, I gained a clearer understanding of this intuitive feeling.
This senior investor is a well-known investor on Xueqiu with the nickname "Retail Investor Yi". He recorded his A-share investment experience in real-time from 2013 to 2023 on Xueqiu, and then deleted his account on December 31, 2023, completely "disappearing" from the online space.
He was a first-generation A-share investor, starting to invest in A-shares in 1991, experiencing various historical changes and recording different growth stages of A-shares.
Although he deleted his account, fortunately, many attentive Xueqiu users meticulously recorded and compiled all his comments, allowing me the opportunity to read that historical period and gain insights.
In his narrative, he vividly described the general and structural bull markets of A-shares.
When A-shares were first established, there were only a few dozen to a hundred listed stocks.
At that time, no matter what stock you bought, no matter how high the price, no matter how badly it fell during the subsequent bear market, as long as the next bull market came, everything could be rescued.
At that time, A-shares was a market where entering boldly could lead to "sudden wealth". Because there were so few stocks that could be hyped, when a bull market arrived, after the leading stocks were hyped to high prices, new players could only buy and dared to buy cheaper stocks. So for a period, A-shares was a market where as long as you could hold onto stocks, even if you bought garbage stocks, you could ultimately turn things around and make money.
The bull markets A-shares encountered at that time were what we call general bull markets.
Isn't this exactly the same as what we saw in the crypto ecosystem in the early years?
Only the retail investors who rushed into A-shares back then have become today's retail investors rushing into the crypto ecosystem - the flowers are similar year after year, but the people are different.
However, after 2000, especially after 2010, as the size of A-shares grew larger, with total market value reaching tens of trillions, it became increasingly difficult for general social funds or even institutional funds to form such a general bull market. Even before the 2015 stock market crash, when the entire society used financing and allocation methods, it was difficult to create a situation where garbage stocks rose universally.
In this situation, A-shares almost never experienced a general bull market again, but only structural bull markets - only individual sectors rose, while many cold sectors remained stagnant.
This phenomenon is not only in A-shares but almost the same in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks. Especially in US stocks, during these years of long bull markets, only a few leading and high-performing tech stocks achieved huge gains, while many stocks remained in a sideways state.
Doesn't this look exactly like the situation we see in the crypto ecosystem today?
In this market trend, if we exclude various meme coins that surged wildly and look at the old coins, aren't most of them basically stagnant, except for a few projects that continue to build and have value support?
Extending this thought further: among the new tokens that emerged in this market trend, how many will have hope of rising again after this bubble bursts?
I believe the answer is self-evident.
Therefore, we should abandon the fantasy of another Altcoin season, carefully examine the tokens we currently hold, sell or exchange tokens we have no confidence in or see no future for, and try to streamline and simplify.
In the future, we must be extremely cautious when preparing to invest, especially when preparing to make a heavy investment.
