Analysis: Macro data makes US recession this year a “base case”, Bitcoin expected to rise

PANews reported on May 1st that, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from a potential US economic recession becoming a "baseline scenario expectation". Multiple sources hold a pessimistic view of the US economy and the Federal Reserve. The trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the US Q1 GDP growth unexpectedly turned negative, and trade tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and unemployment rates, with the scale and timing of interest rate cuts being crucial. Not cutting rates would weaken GDP and increase unemployment, while immediate rate cuts could trigger an inflation rebound. The Federal Reserve faces the dual threats of stagflation and a comprehensive recession. Kobeissi stated that a US economic recession has become the baseline expectation. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that market expectations for Federal Reserve policies remain conservative, with significant changes unlikely before 2025. The market believes the FOMC June meeting might cut rates by 0.25%, with only a 3% chance in May. Cryptocurrency market participants are weighing the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The well-known trader Skew said the probability of rate cuts is increasing, the situation is urgent, and the Federal Reserve is more focused on economic weakness. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that increasing rumors of economic recession will strengthen the argument for the Federal Reserve to relax policies, which would increase market liquidity and potentially enhance risk appetite.