BTC (Bitcoin) has once again become a safe-haven focus under Trump's tariff imposition and global financial market turbulence. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, interviewed at Token 2049 in Dubai on 5/1, stated that his fund Maelstrom has fully leveraged cross margin on BTC, and predicted that the next wave of funds will flow towards high-quality Altcoins with "real earnings". He also provided key observations on Trump's tariff policy restart, global capital flows, and institutional buying behavior, directly stating that quantitative easing (QE) will be launched again, and this BTC bull market has just begun.
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ToggleMaelstrom full margin leveraged on BTC, buying from $90,000 to $74,000
Hayes first stated that his Maelstrom fund has reached "maximum crypto exposure", buying BTC from $90,000 to $74,000, and even believes that $74,500 is the lowest point of this bull market correction.
"We have put all our cash into BTC, and then wait for the Altcoin season to come, preparing to switch to some coins with good fundamentals." Hayes emphasized.
Tariffs and capital flows repriced, BTC no longer falls with the stock market
Hayes pointed out that Trump's restart of the trade war is actually part of the US-China capital rebalancing. He believes the long-standing US trade deficit structure will be rewritten, and tariff policies will force Chinese capital to flow back and accelerate global supply chain restructuring. The bond market volatility becomes a key trigger point:
"When bond market volatility increased in April and Trump launched new tariffs, US policymakers quickly turned moderate because they couldn't sustain the volatility."
Hayes emphasized that the result of each severe bond market fluctuation is printing money. Next time, even if the stock market falls, BTC will not fall.
Altcoin season is coming, not speculation but 'fundamentals first'
Regarding the next capital flow, Hayes believes investors will focus on projects with "real users, cash flow, and profitability". He calls this stage the "fundamental season".
He also revealed the projects currently focused by his Maelstrom fund:
Pendle: A leader in the crypto fixed income market
EtherFi: Launching a Visa network cash card that allows users to spend, borrow, and create stable cash flow by pledging ETH
UPXI & Solana stock structure: A way for institutional funds to enter that cannot directly buy coins
He believes there are fewer than 50 projects in the market with real cash flow, and investors will no longer chase empty shell tokens, but choose projects with "businesses running and returns benefiting token holders".
Don't fantasize about government buying, what should be fought for is development freedom
Regarding whether government agencies will enter and buy coins, Hayes calmly said:
"Governments buy things for political reasons, so don't get too excited. They can buy quickly and sell quickly."
He urged the industry to concentrate on fighting for real freedom:
"Instead of lobbying the government to buy coins, it's better to fight for engineers to write code peacefully without worrying about being caught. That's what we should do."
In summary, Hayes says the BTC bull market is not over, and monetary policies and bond market volatility will continue to drive its value. However, this Altcoin season is not driven by speculation, but by "fundamentals". For investors, the entry timing may not be far away.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
