Three Main Scenarios for Bitcoin Price in 2025 – Can BTC Hit $175,000?

Bitcoin may face three potential trend scenarios in the future, with the most optimistic scenario predicting prices rising to $150,000 to $175,000 within the next 12 months.

This prediction is supported by factors such as strong institutional capital flow and positive investor sentiment after the Trump administration plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve.

Positive Forecast from Experts and Market Signals

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing promising prospects as many positive market signals and expert predictions emerge at the beginning of 05/2025. In an analysis by AxelAdlerJr, as of today, on-chain momentum is at the "beginning" stage of a price increase.

The Bitcoin Composite Index is currently at approximately 0.8 (80%). Based on this index, AxelAdlerJr outlined three possible scenarios.

In the most optimistic scenario, BTC price could reach $150,000 to $175,000, following the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021. This would occur if the Bitcoin Composite Index surpasses 1.0 and maintains that level.

If this ratio remains between 0.8–1.0, the market is likely to consolidate in a broad corridor from $90,000 to $110,000, indicating that investors are holding positions without intensifying investments.

Conversely, if this ratio drops to 0.75 or lower, short-term holders might start taking profits, potentially leading to a price correction to $70,000–$85,000. However, AxelAdlerJr notes that this scenario is less likely than the other two scenarios.

On-chain signals further strengthen the price increase prospects. According to Coinglass, in the past 7 days, approximately 42,525.89 Bitcoin was withdrawn from centralized exchanges (CEX), reducing the supply on exchanges to a 7-year low of around 2.48 million BTC.

The trend of withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges is typically considered a positive sign, as it indicates investor accumulation and reduced selling pressure, paving the way for price growth.

Bitcoin's volatility in the past 7 days has also reached its lowest point in 563 days. Low volatility often signals an accumulation phase before a price explosion, as observed in previous major price increases, such as in 2020 before Bitcoin reached its peak of $69,000.

Technical Analysis and Important Price Levels

Technical analysis also supports Bitcoin's price increase scenario. According to a post on X by Ali, Bitcoin's important support levels are $93,198 and $83,444, indicating strong consolidation at these thresholds.

If Bitcoin maintains above $93,198, the possibility of continuing the upward trend to reach the $150,000 target becomes very feasible.

"The most important support levels for #Bitcoin $BTC are $93,198 and $83,444. Important areas to monitor if momentum changes," Ali shared.

Moreover, Breedlove22, a famous analyst, shared on X about three indicators signaling optimism for Bitcoin. First is the Average Miners' Cost of Production. According to Breedlove22, this index is at its dip, suggesting a significant price increase market may be approaching.

The second indicator is the supply held by long-term holders, measuring Bitcoin not moved on the chain for at least 155 days. Breedlove22 notes that in the past 30 days, long-term holders have purchased an additional approximately 150,000 BTC.

"Bitcoin is gradually running out of sellers in the $80,000 to $100,000 range," Breedlove22 said.

Lastly, and most importantly, is USD liquidity, which truly represents the "demand" side of the equation. More USD in the system means more potential buyers.

"And not only is USD liquidity increasing – liquidity of all fiat currencies is increasing, and Bitcoin is a global asset," Breedlove22 added.

Agreeing with Breedlove22, another X user shared that BTC valuation based on Hash Rate is at support levels, suggesting a local dip may have been established.

In the optimistic scenario, Bitcoin has a great opportunity to reach $150,000 to $175,000. However, investors should also prepare for risks such as short-term price corrections.

With strong support levels at $93,198 and $83,444, Bitcoin has a solid foundation for continued development, but caution remains essential.