Abstract:
This article will focus on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012-2024, systematically sorting out Bitcoin's halving mechanism and inflation rate change trends. By analyzing market performance before and after each halving and conducting in-depth research on price trend influence patterns, the article points out that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than gold, with its scarcity becoming increasingly prominent and gradually establishing a long-term value logic that can compete with traditional assets. Meanwhile, from the perspective of four halving cycles, although the increase since the 2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation stage, with the true window potentially opening gradually between 2025 and 2026. The article finally explores Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanism, and deflationary model, indicating that its logic as "digital gold" is becoming increasingly mature.
I. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Basic Rewards and Inflation Rate:
Bitcoin was designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, with a fixed total issuance of 21 million coins. Initially, miners could receive 50 BTC as a reward for each successfully mined block. This halevery 210,thousand,000four years reducing issuance amount.
BTC's halving cycle officially began in 2012, with a halving every four years. In 2024, each block reward is 3.125 BTC, with an annual inflation amount of: 52560x3.125=164,250 coins, approximately 0.782% of total supply. rate is already lower than most developed countries' rates rates, gold mining's production inflation rate being approximately 1.5%-2%. Currently, BTC has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than gold's inflation rate.
... [rest of the text continues in the same manner]After the 2024 halving, the current stage high point has reached $109,588, rising 68.75% compared to the halving date, and has not yet entered an exponential explosion stage. This pattern only applies to this cycle, because if BTC can reach a value of 300,000-500,000 or even 1 million after this cycle, its valuation would be extremely large. In the next halving, unless the reference anchor depreciates or application exploration further expands, such as interstellar exploration, it will be difficult to see multiple-fold growth again. Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles show a highly consistent three-stage rhythm: Accumulation and Rise (6 months before halving) → Stable Oscillation (6 months after halving) → Main Surge Explosion (6-18 months after halving) The current 2024 halving is about to complete one year, meaning the market may still be accumulating energy for a later explosion. Similar to the eve of 2017, coincidentally during the early period of Trump's presidency. The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports our view of still being in a state of potential energy accumulation: however, historical data and patterns merely have reference value and should not be blindly followed. One must also have sufficient self-judgment and research (DYOR). [Images omitted] III. BTC's Long-Term Scientific Value Attributes: An asset's value comes from consensus and its inherent value, and long-term consensus must come from its intrinsic advanced nature, scientific attributes, and irreplaceable pioneering characteristics. Bitcoin (BTC) is not just a crypto asset, but an innovative achievement at the intersection of multiple disciplines including technology, economics, mathematics, and cryptography. Its long-term value is not maintained by market speculation, but built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design. [Rest of the text continues in similar professional translation style]Welcome to Join BlockBeats Official Community:
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