Written by: TechFlow
MEME is still ongoing, but market enthusiasm seems to have reached its limit.
Although new MEMEs are launched daily, how long has it been since you last saw a phenomenal large MC memecoin compared to last year?
MEME might be struggling, but this doesn't seem to affect the continuous advancement of MEME launch platforms.
On June 4th, according to Blockworks, Pump.fun plans to issue tokens with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, raising $1 billion by selling approximately 25% of its tokens.
This token issuance targets public and private investors, with rumors of a potential airdrop, and the token might be named "$PUMP", though specific details remain unclear.
While Pump.fun has not officially confirmed the authenticity of this token issuance plan, in comparison, Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, is seeking an IPO on the US stock market with a public valuation of only $7.2 billion.
Currently, market reactions to this news are beginning to diverge.
Upon the news, the ALON token on Pump.fun (named after the founder @a1lon_9) surged 102%, with pure gambling logic still prevailing.
Some are optimistic about Pump.fun's ability to attract funds, expecting token dividends or governance benefits; others scoff, believing the $4 billion valuation is absurd and barely conceals an intent to "cut leeks".
Frenzy and fatigue coexist, opportunities and risks intertwine.
If this MEME launch platform, closest to trading, gambling, and volatility, truly issues tokens, will it be the savior of an exhausted market or the final cut without looking back?
The answer may be hidden in its valuation logic and market pulse.
The Advancing Pump.fun, Worth $4 Billion?
If the token issuance plan disclosed by Blockworks is true, with PUMP's FDV around $4 billion, is it worth this price?
We might explore the valuation logic through some data.
Public data shows that as of May this year, Pump.fun's total annual revenue is $296 million. If calculated under the same conditions, the annualized revenue would be around $710 million (296.1 million ÷ 5 × 12).
Based on this revenue, using traditional valuation methods, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S, valuation of $4 billion divided by annual revenue) is 5.63, meaning the market pays $5.63 for every dollar of revenue, traditionally used to measure growth potential, similar to DeFi projects like Uniswap.
If the PUMP token has revenue distribution rights, assuming it can take half the revenue ($350 million), the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, valuation divided by profit) would be about 11.4, lower than the average of US tech stocks.
However, the issue is that MEME-related businesses don't really follow traditional valuation methods, and MEME launch platform valuations are not just about revenue, but more about FOMO and market sentiment changes.
Circle has a stable and compliant USDC business with an IPO valuation of $7.2 billion; but Pump.fun's $4 billion valuation for the top MEME launch platform is more than half of Circle's, which seems somewhat unreasonable.
Moreover, Pump.fun's revenue is not very stable. At its worst, daily revenue was only around $110,000.
From breaking $100 million in revenue in November 2024, to the peak of $14 million daily revenue on January 2nd, to a low of $110,700 on March 9th this year... the platform's revenue fluctuates nearly a hundredfold, highlighting the cyclical nature of the MEME market.
The revenue low point in March 2025 is actually a microcosm of the MEME market's market value evaporation and waning enthusiasm, with emotion-driven businesses having fragile revenues.
Nevertheless, the platform never lacks supply. Pump.fun launches an average of 30,000 new tokens daily, occupying half the trading volume of Solana DEX.
The continuous token launches and the stark contrast with fluctuating market sentiment make it difficult to find a stable anchor for its valuation.
Exhausted Market, the Last Cut?
Pump.fun is still advancing, whether through rumored token issuance or previous attempts to create its own AMM and innovate live streaming features, showing the platform is not stagnating.
But the entire market, especially the MEME market, seems to be running out of steam.
Market "exhaustion" is already showing signs. In December 2024, the overall MEME market value dropped from $137 billion to $96 billion, with $40 billion evaporating.
In 2025, Solana DEX trading volume shrank by 20% compared to last year, with most new tokens quickly approaching zero, and their lifecycle further shortened, making PVP an extremely difficult challenge.
Occasional large MC memecoins provide support, but fail to restore past glory.
Retail investors have shifted from frenzied chasing to waiting and watching, with community discussions full of fatigue. The market craves a new narrative - next AI wave, stablecoins, listed companies' crypto asset reserves... rather than high-valuation gambles from old platforms.
Meanwhile, Pump.fun's past raises eyebrows. In 2024, the platform repeatedly sold SOL for USDC; January data also shows Pump.fun has sold approximately $182 million in SOL tokens since the beginning of the year.
Earning SOL, draining liquidity; selling SOL, somewhat affecting price and confidence.
The community currently widely doubts the Pump token issuance. For instance, researcher Haotian believes: "It's hard to imagine a MEME launch platform's valuation surpassing most DeFi blue-chip protocols. This might be a sign of MEME economy maturity, or a signal of industry value collapse."
After raising funds through token issuance, what exactly will Pump.fun do? Can it bring a fundamental upgrade to the MEME market?
Based on current information, the answer seems negative; not to mention that multiple launch platforms have already emerged last month, challenging the position of this once-dominant launch platform.
The Last One, or the Last Cut?
Before the answer is revealed, being cautious is always the best approach.
