On June 6, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that Bitcoin's upward momentum is weakening, and the U.S. macroeconomic background is beginning to show cracks. Two key economic indicators have recently fallen to their lowest points in months, but most investors' attention remains focused on ETE capital flows. In fact, financing dynamics, stablecoin activities, and forward-looking data all suggest that a larger market shift may be occurring.
As U.S. macroeconomic data begins to soften, we may be entering an uncertain period. The recent strong performance in demand is likely due to market anticipation of Trump's tariff policies, accelerating order execution, but this activity now appears to be normalizing. Policymakers may be concerned that tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures, thus remaining cautious about premature policy easing.
We previously noted that Bitcoin breaking $84,500 would confirm its bullish trend. Considering the potential market uncertainty in the summer, we recommended that traders take moderate profits in last week's report. Despite recent price softness, our trend model maintains a bullish stance. The model will only turn bearish if Bitcoin falls below $96,719, a level that remains intact but is indeed close to being breached. As the trend momentum has clearly weakened, we chose to lock in profits early. With early economic data showing signs of weakness, we may be entering a period of economic turbulence lasting over two months. In such a market environment, Bitcoin is unlikely to continue rising uninterrupted, especially when the Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to cut rates and inflation expectations remain high.
