Essay | How to protect wealth in war

This article is machine translated
Show original
Recently, I recorded a podcast about how people lose or preserve wealth during turbulent times, which I believe has significant relevance to today's life. The following is the Chinese content for reference. Much of the content is from Barton Biggs's "Wealth, War, Wisdom", which interested friends can purchase and read. My biggest realization is that everything has a "birth, existence, destruction, and emptiness", with a beginning and an end. We should strive hard, but ultimately accept that "all phenomena are impermanent". In major historical changes, even the entire Russian Tsarist family was insignificant and ultimately wiped out.
1. Location, location, location. Repeated three times. Choosing the right geographical location is crucial; otherwise, you may lose everything or worse, face total annihilation.
  1. A Jewish family during World War II split into two paths. One group fled to France and was completely wiped out, sent to concentration camps, while another branch escaped to Portugal and survived.
  2. In 1943, many Nazi members had already started secretly transferring money to South America. They did not transfer funds to the Eurasian continent or the United States, which was at least a correct choice at the time, though they were later held accountable in South America.
  3. Most residents of the Soviet Republics in 1991 lost everything overnight because most ordinary people were fully invested in the Soviet system.
2. If you are in a difficult situation, observe the subtle signs and make your own judgment: think about who is truly winning.
In 1942, Nomura Securities sensed Japan might ultimately be defeated from domestic food shortages and the fact that park fences around the Imperial Palace were dismantled for iron smelting. Despite newspapers and radio only broadcasting positive war news, Nomura observed that many naval officers and pilots who participated in the Midway and Coral Sea battles had kept geishas as mistresses. When these men did not return, their geisha girlfriends became anxious. The Nomura family sensed the dire situation and gradually sold their stock holdings, even short-selling. But as a Japanese financial group, they couldn't allocate assets to the victorious countries. So what did they do? They asked themselves: if Japan is defeated, what should they hold for post-war reconstruction? They believed land and real estate would be the best preservation tools, so they bought commercial and residential properties. These assets provided funds for Nomura Securities' rapid expansion after the war, ultimately becoming a major Japanese securities company. In the German case: In the 1930s, many German Jewish aristocratic families trusted the country, firmly believing "we are also Germans, and this storm will pass soon". They owned assets, status, and social recognition, feeling no urgency to leave their homeland. However, their judgment was quickly shattered by reality. After the Nazis came to power, Germany imposed strict foreign exchange controls and levied taxes up to 78% on asset transfers. By the "Crystal Night" in 1938, more and more people realized they must leave. But by then, leaving was no longer possible. Visas were hard to obtain, funds were frozen, and many were ultimately trapped within national borders. This history reminds us: when you think "there's no need to leave now", that might be precisely when you still have a choice. Einstein made an excellent judgment, immigrating to Princeton early and becoming a professor.

3. In chaotic times, never go all in

  1. In 1937, even Churchill was attracted by the US bull market and went long with leverage, resulting in being liquidated by 1938. Later, he managed to repay his debts through continuous writing and publishing.
  2. Jewish wealthy people in Germany, with most of their assets being German exposure (real estate, enterprises, currency), ultimately experienced a slow boil, the later they left, the more reluctant they were to abandon sunk costs, and finally lost both their lives and money.
  3. In contemporary times, it's even more so. The average lifespan of S&P 500 index constituent companies has been reduced from 35 years in the 1950s to 10-15 years. 1958: Average lifespan of S&P 500 companies was 61 years; 1980: Dropped to about 30 years; Around 2020: Declined to about 18 years; Predicted by 2030: Possibly only around 12 years.
4. Have awareness of "self-custody" and "-party>": Consider the reconstruction of political systems and wealth in major transformations. Simply put, it's possible that all previous property documents could become invalid. The money you deposit in banks, gold you buy, real estate you own, are essentially third-party custody. People might think real estate should be under their name, but in fact, property rights depend on local government's recognition of your property documents, so essentially, you are also under government custody.
  1. During World War II, Polish nobles' estates in their home country were ultimately confiscated by Germany. After the war, they thought they couldlaim, was assigned to the of influence by the Yalta Agreement meaning the regime changed and completely denied private property rights. In the past 3/4 years, Russian wealthy individuals, especially oligarchs, had all their assets in NATO countries frozen. When NATO countries wanted to impose sanctions, real estate was themost difficult asset for Russian oligarchs to take away in London and New York.
  2. During World War II, Japanese assets in the US were also frozen and even confiscated. On December 7, 1941, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, and on December 8, the US declared war on Japan and officially joined World War II. Thereafter, the US quickly took measures to freeze assets of the Japanese government, enterprises, and individuals. Among them, 120,000 Japanese (2/3 with US passports) were sent to wartime internment camps, with many families forced to sell their properties, farms, and businesses at low prices or lose them entirely, and could not recover these properties after the><>1, the War, the Yugoslav Tito government issued an order to collectively deprive all Germans (including civilians) of their citizenship and property rights. They were viewed as a groups group of war criminals and not allowed to own land, property, or enjoy normal civil rights. Thousandshouof ethnic Germans (including children and the elderly) were sent to labor camps, with an estimated 50,000-60,000 people dying in these camps. especially between late 1944 and 1946, some regions experienced systematic cleansing: German men were forced into labor or executed on the spot; German women and were subjected to rape,,.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments