BTC Surges, Stock Price Halved: Semler's Market Value Fails to Reflect Assets
Semler Scientific has shifted to a BTC reserve strategy since May 2024, currently holding 4,449 BTC, with a total value of approximately $475 million, ranking 14th among global listed companies. However, Semler's stock price has not risen but fallen, dropping nearly 45% year-to-date, with a market value of only about $401 million, almost equal to or slightly lower than its asset value.

Data from Bitcointreasuries shows that the company's current "NAV multiple (market value divided by BTC asset value)" is only 0.841, indicating that the market has not given any premium, but rather a discount. Matthew Sigel, Digital Assets Research Director at VanEck, pointed out the company as the first BTC-holding enterprise facing the risk of "corporate market value close to asset position".
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VanEck: When Market Value Lags Behind Held Assets, New Shares Will No Longer Create Value
Sigel noted that many enterprises raise funds to buy BTC through "At-the-Market (ATM)" mechanisms, but if the stock price is close to or below net asset value per share, continuing to issue new shares will no longer have strategic significance and will instead dilute existing shareholders' value. He warned: "This is not capital formation, but value erosion."
To avoid this vicious cycle, Sigel recommends that enterprises establish risk control mechanisms, including:
Suspend capital raising if NAV multiple is below 0.95 for 10 consecutive days
Consider share buybacks if BTC price rises but stock price shows no significant response
Initiate a comprehensive strategy assessment if valuation fails to reflect asset position for an extended period, considering merger, split, or ending the BTC strategy
He also particularly reminded that executive compensation should be linked to "growth in net asset value per share" rather than simply measuring the number of BTCs held, otherwise they will repeat the mistakes of some mining companies with "high salaries and excessive new share issuance".
Why is Semler's Market Value Low? Convertible Bonds, Liquidity, and Business Disputes Are Key Reasons
Why can't Semler's valuation keep up with BTC's rise? During a discussion in the comments section between VanEck and Blockstream CEO Adam Back, Sigel identified three main reasons:
Semler is a small-cap stock with low market liquidity
The only issued convertible bond trades at a low price (with an annual yield of 11%), indicating low investor confidence
The original medical device business performance is not ideal, dragging down the company's overall valuation
Adam Back added that Semler was involved in a now-settled medical equipment-related lawsuit, but the market's understanding is limited, and this information gap might cause investor hesitation. He speculated that the company might have paused its capital raising and BTC buying plans, and although it has recently resumed actions, the market has not simultaneously reflected its proactive approach.
Topic Bonus No More: Is the BTC Reserve Strategy Entering a Trial Period?
For many companies, buying BTC was originally a strategy to attract market attention and create asset leverage, but if the company's market value cannot reflect its held assets, this model will be difficult to sustain. Sigel emphasized:
When a company's market value is close to its held crypto asset value, any further equity dilution will damage existing shareholders rather than create benefits.
Semler is just the first, and this warning will impact other listed enterprises choosing crypto as an asset allocation. VanEck's call will be a wake-up call for the market, and companies should consider whether investors will buy in before investing.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all of your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.