Many who do not pay much attention to the US brother do not know why public opinion and financial media are reporting on the United States. Of course, this is because the King was about to promote a major comprehensive plan a few months after his term, and with all other strategic goals partially achieved or discounted, this has become an absolute benchmark for evaluating whether his second term is okay, so he concentrated all resources and strength to push this matter.
Based on the "House of Cards" scene setting and mapping of the US political arena, in promoting this bill, he made considerable concessions involving different party interests and insider trading, which is obvious and undeniable. But in terms of results, he succeeded, and the market is quite receptive, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 breaking new highs, and the Dow Jones just a step away. The market is so heated, the reason being tax cuts, which in a sense is equivalent to a rate cut. Under this euphoric effect, the possibility of a rate cut has been diluted by the dragon arriving early on Thursday, negating Q3 rate cuts - unlikely to add fuel to the fire, and even market valuation might rise 5%~10%, potentially making rate hikes an option.
The East remains stable as always. This week is July 4th Independence Day, with a small red envelope of about 11 billion soft currency. Just a drizzle.
The 1000-page Big beautiful bill can be condensed into four words: fortify and clear. The US has abandoned strategic opportunities to compete with the East in areas like electricity, instead adjusting and hard-landing its advantageous domains to maintain US dollar hegemony, so-called "cutting the net" (bottom-tier poor are completely cut off, with hard-traveled illegal immigrants all discarded, but those who can be selected through this bloody violent screening will reach a lower-middle-class sequence better than current conditions - this is the US's recruitment notice).
Correspondingly, Musk said that if the big beautiful bill passes, he will register in the US. Some roadside news has said he has already registered, but the probability of it being fake news is 99%. Whether the two are in a relationship or truly at odds, the Musk-Trump topic will continue. Musk's probability of turning towards the Democratic Party is gradually increasing. (With absolute protection period passed and personal interests lost, Democratic Party leaders have repeatedly attacked Trump because he raided their strongholds - illegal immigrants, new immigrants, LGBTQ groups will be severely impacted by the bill, potentially forced to return home. But whether this excess capacity clearance will be as smooth as Trump preset is obviously impossible).
Since it's "fortify and clear", it must be laying groundwork for a larger goal, because Trump's next most important KPI is winning the midterm elections. Paving the way for his team and successor after leaving office. For election economic investors, traders, and observers, you must watch "House of Cards". Otherwise, thinking structures cannot be compared, and many things cannot be understood through traditional Chinese logic - why can opposing or intra-party factions sit down and toast, exchange interests, betray teammates, and sacrifice short, medium, and long-term interests just to pass a bill? That's a result-oriented KPI, which in Chinese warning means "by any means necessary".
Mainstream Chinese media and self-media KOLs are all silent about July 4th. Well, how could they focus on their biggest opponent's good day? After all, our military parade is about to begin.
Okay, weekend high temperatures nationwide. Hope the first typhoon brings atmospheric circulation energy exchange soon.
By the way, a certain Japanese prophetic woman predicts a tsunami today, with half the time remaining. Who knows if it's accurate? Even if successful, it wouldn't just affect an island or archipelago, but would have much larger implications.
Crypto
It's quite awkward. The fate of fence-sitters might not be good, strategically speaking, not tactically.
After several major geopolitical events in recent years, having lost early crypto fundamentalist momentum and value anchoring, its hedging function has long disappeared, becoming a new bulk commodity following gold. But now, with US three major indices breaking or about to break new highs, its attractiveness is significantly reducing - as it's anchored to US mid-small cap indices, breaking previous highs is highly probable. However, new attractiveness and value anchors have yet to emerge, as Trump is currently unwilling to fulfill promises to that crypto community segment. Although this group represents 1/10 of the US population, their political influence is too small in the fossil energy and fortify-clear strategy.
Especially after Trump completes the first-stage KPI of his second term, if he shifts focus to expanding US manufacturing share and strengthening fossil energy, whether the stock market will see a turning point after new highs will become a topic traditional financial and crypto major players and short-sellers must consider.
Plus
This is currently the main style of the king of understanding, which seems to be making money, and he has never clearly expressed his views on global hegemony. However, he is just a representative on the front stage, and the Chinese warning cannot fully understand the policies and logic of his self-media publications. It can only be said that this cute old man has not put his energy into geopolitical struggles, but only into making money, which is relatively good for Earth's humans at the moment.
However, with the direction of the mid-term election policies and the expectations behind him, how long he can influence this situation is also a question.
Float parade, new era. Have a nice weekend.
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