Following the lemon topic, how to assess the impact level of macroeconomic risks? Macro and micro? 1. Last year, I discussed with friends that from a purely macroeconomic perspective, all that could be seen were risks. In essence, we need to further classify risks, as different risk levels have different market impacts. Therefore, in my posts, I always specify risk levels as large, medium, or small. For example, I discussed a medium-level adjustment in US stocks and the overall market at the beginning of the year <x.com/qinbafrank/status/189997...…>, and mentioned small-level impacts for a future period. Here, we also need to distinguish between risks and crises, such as the difference between risks and crises in US bonds <x.com/qinbafrank/status/192577...…>. If one doesn't learn to classify risk levels and differentiate between risks and crises, it's easy to perceive small risks as large risks and large risks as fatal crises. 2. Macro looks at the direction of movement, while micro determines which vehicle we choose to ride. This has two layers of meaning: 1) Distinguish which targets are more influenced by macro factors and which are more influenced by fundamentals. Last year, we discussed that cryptocurrencies are more affected by macro factors, while US stocks have a higher fundamental weight <x.com/qinbafrank/status/180838...…> <x.com/qinbafrank/status/180113...…>. 2) At the micro level, there are many perspectives: technical pattern analysis, capital flow and chip structure, fundamental value, industrial iteration and growth. Each method is valid, with the most suitable being the best. 3. For those fundamentally pessimistic, from a social psychology perspective, humans essentially hope for continuous improvement, because only when the pie grows can everyone get meat and soup. This is the essential driving force of society. Looking back at human history since the Industrial Revolution, we've experienced various crises, ultimately overcoming them and developing better. Human society is inherently progressive, so high-quality, scarce assets that can continuously adapt to social development should also be progressive. 1) The fundamental logic is continuous development, progress, and iteration of productivity. This requires truly understanding that technological progress is the primary productive force. Only by understanding this can one clearly see that technology drives world progress. Macro factors, geopolitical issues at most provide catalytic acceleration or short-term obstacles, but do not change the overall trend. We are now at the starting point of a new technological acceleration. 2) Of course, this doesn't mean being completely optimistic and ignoring all risks. We should ignore small risks, pay attention to medium risks, and prevent large risks or crises. Essentially, this ensures our ability to overcome significant risks or crises, not falling in the darkness before dawn.