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🗞 Beggar’s On-Chain Weekly Report - Top Escape Series #36
August is here, and this marks 36 weeks of the weekly report—time really flies.
This week, starting from Monday, daily candles closed red for 6 days straight, breaking below the previous consolidation range and dropping all the way to the 112K support I mentioned last week.
The URPD gap that had everyone on edge has now been fully filled as of this morning ✅
Let’s dive into this week’s “#TopEscape Weekly Report” 👇:
//
1) URPD
This week, I closely tracked the URPD gap between 112K–114K.
With yesterday’s and this morning’s drop, the last URPD gap has now been filled ✅
Historically, URPD gaps always get filled—100% fill rate.
Six months ago, I wrote a detailed guide on URPD gaps for those interested: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
Currently, there are two massive accumulation bars between 116K–119K, totaling about 1.143 million BTC.
Since price is below 116K, all this supply is underwater.
As always: besides buyer strength, keep a close eye on changes in the 116K–119K stack—their move will directly impact the next market trend‼️
//
2) STH-RP
For a deep dive into STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price), check here: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
📊 Currently, STH-RP sits around 106,019, about 6.5% below spot.
From a TA perspective, the 112K support I mentioned on 7/25 is holding up.
Reasoning back then:
“112K is the upper boundary of the daily consolidation range from 5/09 to 7/09 before the big pump.”
But since consolidation ranges have width, even if this support holds, price doesn’t have to stop exactly at 112K. STH-RP is sitting right in the middle of that range now.
So if price drops further next week, STH-RP might be a solid support level 📈
//
3) AVIV Heatmap
For an AVIV Heatmap breakdown, see: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
In my “Top Hunter” series (Part 3), I explained AVIV Heatmap’s logic and how to use it.
With BTC’s recent dip, we’ve officially exited the overheated zone.
But remember: I’ve stressed repeatedly, “AVIV overheated = cyclical top signal” & “Macro top risk is still there.”
Whenever the AVIV Heatmap overheats after the second major distribution, it’s historically marked cycle tops (see pinned post for details)‼️
So, while cooling off relieves some sell pressure, if AVIV’s downtrend is confirmed, top risk is creeping closer ...⚠️
//
4) Wrap-up
📝 TL;DR:
1️⃣ URPD: Gap fully filled, watch for any unwind in the 116K–119K supply zone
2️⃣ STH-RP: Currently ~106K, a potential support
3️⃣ AVIV Heatmap: Out of overheated territory, but macro top risk still in play
-
That’s it for Weekly Report #36—hope it helps!
In the comments, I’ll link all my “Second Top Escape” analysis posts for further reading.
As always, AMA—have a great weekend, everyone 🐚
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📚 This Week’s Article Recap:
Alternative Sentiment Indicator: Volatile OKX Savings Rates
x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…
US Capital Sentiment Curve Update: Stuck in Limbo
x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…
Asian Funds Can’t Handle the Chop: Contrarian Signal & Pump Incoming?
x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…
Range Play Fails, URPD Vacuum Gap Filled
x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…
Binance HODLer Series #29: TreeHouse (TREE) Project Intro
x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…
Crydit U Card Event
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…

貝格先生
@market_beggar
07-27
🗞 貝格鏈上週報 - 逃頂系列(三十五)
時光飛逝,眨眼間七月已迎來尾聲。
本週五因 8 萬枚巨鯨再次拋售的消息,使 BTC 出現了一波下跌,
不過現已拉升回到起跌位,值得慶幸的是他終於賣完了。
雖然 BTC 仍在窄幅震盪,但週報一樣是要寫的,
以下就讓我們一起本週「#逃頂 週報」的內容吧👇:
// x.com/market_beggar/…








Risk List Comprehensive Compilation
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
RUP Signal Update: Small-Scale Divergence Appears
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Unusual Imbalance Signal: Price and PSIP Correlation Offset
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Beggar's Chain Weekly Report - Escape Top Series (Thirty-Four): Special Chip Structure Analysis
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Flying Bullish Signals & Restless RUP and Realized Profit
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunting Plan (Five)
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunting Plan (Four)
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Emergency Update: US Funding Sentiment Curve Turning Point Seems to Have Appeared
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunting Plan (Three)
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunting Plan (Two)
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Top Hunting Plan (One)
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
BTC Reaches New High as Expected, Topped?
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
AVIV Heatmap Data Update: Alternative Top Assessment Method
x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…
Data Update: Cointime Price Deviation Top Extreme Price Estimation
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Bitfinex Whale Highly Likely to Have Closed Position
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Special Cycle & Sluggish Market
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Has Bitfinex Whale Closed Position?
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Realized Profit Divergence Initially Appears
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
US Funding Sentiment Curve Divergence: Officially Established
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Glassnode Weekly Report Content Interpretation
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Altcoins Topping Early
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
US Funding Sentiment Divergence Risk
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
x.com/market_beggar/status/193...…
Old Whale vs New Capital: Bitfinex & Coinbase Premium/Discount
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
Bitfinex E/B Legendary Whale Closes Position
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
Bitfinex BTC Longs Whale Closes Position
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
Technical Aspect: BTC's High Fuel Consumption Trend
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
Learning from History: Compiling Potential Top Signals
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…
A Fleeting Dream: Confession and Bias of a 103K Top Escaper
x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…

貝格先生
@market_beggar
07-23
不尋常的失衡訊號:價格和 PSIP 相關性的偏移🧭
昨天和各位介紹了一項監測市場情緒的方式,
今天再來向各位分享一個近期出現的「異狀」。
在我之前撰寫的「鏈上數據學堂」系列教程中,
曾介紹過 PSIP 指標:https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1868924708852580858…
簡言之,PSIP 是「流通的 BTC 中,處於盈利狀態籌碼的占比」。

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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