CME Fed Watch: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 82.6%.

Mars Finance News: On August 4, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 82.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 17.4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the rate unchanged until October is 4.2%, with a 33.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 62.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut. The next two FOMC meeting dates are September 17 and October 29. Last week, the US July non-farm employment added only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the May and June data were significantly revised downward. Additionally, Federal Reserve Board member Kuglar will resign this week, allowing Trump to appoint a preferred candidate in advance. Influenced by these news, the CME "Fed Watch" probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve has surged, whereas before the non-farm data, this figure was only 41.3%.