Yesterday's discussion revealed that after Kugel's resignation, Trump's nominated board member is essentially the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This is interesting: if Kugel had not resigned early, the next Fed Chairman nominated by Trump could only speak from the periphery. However, Kugel's early resignation allows the current Fed Chairman and the "shadow chairman" to meet early on the Fed Board, meaning direct confrontation in the next three monetary policy meetings this year, and potentially influencing the positions of many FOMC voting members, with some possibly aligning early with the "shadow chairman". This makes it hard not to suspect that Kugel's resignation is the result of private negotiations or pressure from Trump or , especially since Kugel's term was only about five months away, making her sudden resignation seem unusual. From another perspective, it also reveals Trump and 's urgency for rate cuts. The core issue is that after the , entering the fiscal expansion 2.0 era, the biggest policy constraint is the continued expansion of debt scale and rising interest expenses. Only rate cuts can quickly reduce interest payment costs. Previously, some institutions calculated that for every percentage point the Fed cuts rates, U.S. Treasury interest expenses could be reduced by $200-300 billion. Trump's tariff disruption earlier raised the average U.S. tariff rate from 3.5% to around 16%, generating only about $400 billion in additional tariff revenue annually, while rate cuts have an immediate effect on reducing debt pressure.
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qinbafrank
@qinbafrank
08-04
需要关注8月8号美联储理事库格勒辞职正式离任后川普提名的理事人选,很有可能也就是下一任联储主席人选。鲍威尔美联储主席的任期是26年5月结束,但其美联储理事任期是到28年1月结束。原则上鲍威尔主席任期结束后,还是可以继续担任美联储理事只要他还想继续理事任期。而要担任美联储主席的人首先应该已 x.com/qinbafrank/sta…

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