Beggar On-chain Weekly - Top Escape Series (38) This week’s BTC price action was nothing short of thrilling: Monday kicked off with a long upper wick, followed by a new ATH on Wednesday, and then a sharp drop the next day in sync with the PPI release—a classic “fake breakout” to new highs. Meanwhile, as I’ve mentioned in my usual posts, a number of subtle on-chain signals emerged this week... Let’s dive into this week’s #TopEscape Weekly Report 👇: // 1) URPD Picking up from the past two weeklies, here’s a quick recap of BTC’s situation: 1️⃣ Filled the URPD gap, retested the 112K support, and started pumping (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) 2️⃣ On Monday, swept the expected 120~121K liquidity zone (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) 3️⃣ Printed a new ATH, then a stop hunt in sync with the PPI data Throughout this process, BTC’s overall supply structure didn’t change much. Worth noting: Compared to the last breakout, this time BTC didn’t linger above the new highs and buyer strength was weak. So even with the breakout, there was very little new supply accumulated above ATH. The largest supply cluster remains at 116~119K—about 1.24 million BTC stacked there. // 2) STH-RP For how to analyze STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price), check this post: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… 📊 STH-RP is currently around 108,570, about 8% below spot. This week saw a notable uptick in STH-RP growth compared to previous weeks. If the “fake breakout”/stop hunt starts playing out and BTC continues to dump, then the STH-RP zone below will be a key support level for the bulls. // 3) AVIV Heatmap On the day BTC broke ATH, the AVIV Heatmap once again flashed an overheat signal. Combined with other signals this week (US money front-running, three-stage RUP divergence, etc.), the AVIV overheat is another bearish confluence. These were my core reasons for going public with a bearish call on Friday (8/15). // 4) Wrap-up 📝 Key takeaways: 1️⃣ URPD: Supply structure unchanged, no heavy stacking above new highs 2️⃣ STH-RP: Now ~108.5K, key bull defense level 3️⃣ AVIV Heatmap: Overheat signal on ATH day, in sync with other bearish indicators - That’s it for the 38th On-chain Weekly—hope it helps! I’ll drop all my “Second Top Escape” analysis threads in the comments for you to study. As always, ask me anything—have a great weekend! 🍥 - 📚 This Week’s Article Recap US capital sentiment curve update: Big money quietly exiting again... x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… How to evaluate quant strategies? A must-know basics checklist x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… How whales play retail: ETH’s magical high-win technical pattern x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… Potential three-stage RUP divergence & still-cold Realized Profit x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… BTC’s fake breakout to new highs: Liquidity sweep done, technicals turn bearish x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…

⚠️ Notes on the Escape the Top 2.0 series: Except for the first article below, the others are arranged in chronological order, and the article at the bottom is published first. - Risk list summary x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… BTC new high false breakout: Liquidity hunting completed, technical bearish x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… Potential RUP three-stage divergence & Realized Profit is still cold x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… Update on US capital sentiment curve: Are the Americans secretly retreating again...? x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… RUP signal update: Small-scale divergence appears x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Unusual imbalance signal: Shift in the correlation between price and PSIP x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Bergchain Weekly Report - Top Escape Series (34): Special Edition on Chip Structure Analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… The flying bulls & the ready-to-move RUP and Realized Profit x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Top Hunting Plan (V) x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Top Hunting Plan (IV) x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Urgent update: The turning point of the US capital sentiment curve seems to have appeared x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Top Hunting Plan (Part 3) x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Top Hunting Plan (II) x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Top Hunting Plan (I) x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… BTC hits new high as expected, has it peaked? x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… AVIV Heatmap Data Update: Alternative Top Assessment Methods x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Data Update: Cointime Price Deviation Top Limit Price Estimation x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… There is a high probability that Bitfinex whale have completed their liquidation x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Special cycle & sluggish market x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Have the Bitfinex whale finished closing their positions? x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Realized Profit divergence begins to appear x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… US capital sentiment curve diverges: officially established x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Glassnode Weekly Report Interpretation x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Altcoin that peaked early x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Risk of divergence of US capital sentiment x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… x.com/market_beggar/status/193...… Veteran Whale vs. New Entrants: Bitfinex and Coinbase Discounts and Premiums x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Bitfinex E/B Whale Closes Position x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Bitfinex BTC Longs Whale Closes Positions x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Technical analysis: BTC's high gas consumption trend x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Using History as a Mirror: Summarizing Possible Future Top Signals x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… A Dream of the Yellow Millet: The Monologue and Prejudice of a 103K Escaper x.com/market_beggar/status/192...…